Emily @ 5PM Tuesday, 50 MPH & Twisters Touch Down in Ft Lauderdale

To look towards Emily's future we have to look at where she has been so far. The cords for tracking Emily, for those old school types, are listed below. I think it's worth looking on for a measure of reality. So far Emily is and has always moved west at a moderate speed somewhere between 12 and 17 miles per hour. I don't buy that she ever stalled, I think she just looked like she did because the earlier fix was off but that's my feeling.


Adv# Date Lat Long Wind Pres Movement Type Name Received Forecaster
1...CORREC 08/01 6:30 PM 15.2N 62.0W 40MPH 1006mb W at 17 MPH (275 deg) TS Emily 08/01 8:00 PM Brennan
1 08/01 7:30 PM 15.2N 62.0W 40MPH 1006mb W at 17 MPH (275 deg) TS Emily 08/01 7:31 PM Brennan
2 08/01 11:00 PM 15.5N 62.9W 40MPH 1006mb W at 17 MPH (275 deg) TS Emily 08/01 10:40 PM Brennan
2A 08/02 2:00 AM 15.5N 63.5W 40MPH 1006mb W at 17 MPH (275 deg) TS Emily 08/02 1:40 AM Pasch
3 08/02 5:00 AM 15.5N 64.0W 40MPH 1006mb W at 16 MPH (280 deg) TS Emily 08/02 4:52 AM Pasch
3A 08/02 8:00 AM 15.3N 63.7W 40MPH 1007mb W at 14 MPH (280 deg) TS Emily 08/02 7:52 AM Avila/berg
4 08/02 11:00 AM 15.3N 63.6W 40MPH 1007mb Stationary TS Emily 08/02 10:54 AM Avila
4A 08/02 2:00 PM 15.6N 64.8W 45MPH 1006mb W at 12 MPH (280 deg) TS Emily 08/02 2:08 PM Avila
5 08/02 5:00 PM 15.8N 65.4W 50MPH 1005mb W at 12 MPH (295 deg) TS Emily 08/02 4:43 PM Avila

She has flirted with 15 degrees north for days now, though she is slowly gaining some latitude and should approach 16 on the next advisory. If not, she isn't going WNW but still going west or just north of west.

We also have to look at the Water Vapor Image above... the trough that is supposed to be lifting her is already far enough South to have some effect on her.. one would think it would have but it didn't. The fact that it hasn't means she is still being steered by the lower level steering winds and I find it hard to believe that the new set of models tonight won't reflect that. It's also possible that the low pressure to her west is beckoning her more than the diving trough that stirred up the weather in South Florida this afternoon.

I just got back from a trip to Hallandale Beach. Sorry, no pics of the beach. I didn't want to walk the beach with the cell phone nor did I want to be tempted to check on the storm. A beautiful day, slow, steady swells more than waves. Hot temps, a steady breeze and beautiful blue water. Later in the afternoon a squall line raced through and we left to go shopping at Publix. When I came out of Publix the sky looked awesome, threatening and wild. Small funnel clouds could be seen hanging from the line that was moving off to the east.



I watched a small funnel come down, but didn't get the picture and twisters did touch down in Broward with broken tree limbs, roof damage and downed power lines. A fire was touched off by lightning out in West Dade and the heavy scent of smoke moved over the metro area on the winds of the wild storm that moved in from the Glades.



A few people were buying water in Publix, but there doesn't seem to be any one really worrying on the "small little storm" in the Caribbean. Yes, we are in the cone but it's moving slowly west and hard for anyone to really buy into the hard right turn north and out to sea. That may happen, but for now life goes on in Miami where afternoon thunderstorms with wind gusts stronger than what Emily is carrying is more on an immediate concern and the bad weather locally tossed Emily from the Evening Weather News. We may be right, we may be crazy as the song goes and only time will when and if Emily makes that dramatic right turn.

At the beach the food vendor was talking to a friend about the storm. The friend said with a smile, "October All Over" and he had less confidence in Emily making a visit this weekend than the bank clerk who told me we are having a Tropical Storm this weekend with the coolness of manner that he asked me if I wanted tens or twenties.

I don't know... storms have a way of doing their own thing. She has maintained herself all day and I don't see any reason to think otherwise so I doubt she will fall apart as some of the models predicated. More so, with every degree west she goes she gets close to that area where storms have a way of blowing up fast as the water is hot and the shear lessens.

Keep watching, this is far from over.

Besos Bobbi