Emily @ 11 Wednesday Night... Flirting With Florida

I say flirt, rather than dance, because we don't really know what she will do.



The guys at the NHC had a quandary because the models split wildly tonight in two directions and the logical thing to do would have been to put the whole state of Florida in the cone. However, they don't like to make rash changes to the plan based on a new set of model runs and they edged it back to the West a bit.

Miami is back in it...



Emily has appeared to move tonight, but I think she really is just getting larger. She is spreading out, that is not really movement. This is an estimated guess at movement that is based on the hope that Emily will follow the model's predictions and not do something screwy on her own that was not predicated.

Basically, tonight she sat and spread out and is in the process of possibly trying to align her centers that were previously all over the floor like most teenagers clothing.

Is this a Florida storm? That is the question. And, no one seems to have the answer.



She is sitting, barely moving and no one knows if that means she is intensifying or changing directions.

"THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LARGER THAN
NORMAL GIVEN THE CURRENT SLOW MOTION..."

That uncertainty is based on her usual behavior and slow movement.

Also, Brian Norcross tonight on TWC said what I have been saying, she is getting her moisture from the monsoonal trough to her south... dry air from the north. That connection with her moisture source has, I think, held her in place a bit and steering currents are weaker than they seem.

So... we will wait and see for the next model runs and see what the NHC will do at 5am. If they blink, they will move the cone to the left (west) and we won't know until tomorrow.




Mind you... several models basically hit or brush Miami and FLL and then make a second landfall further up the Florida coast. She could cruise up i95 like Hurricane King in 1950 or get far enough west to hook back through the keys and or SW Florida. She could go all the way up the coast. Why do I say that? Look at the Wind Speed Probs that the NHC posts but few people look at. Why are they issuing them for NYC and places beyond... hmmmm..

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT5+shtml/040243.shtml?

That's a lot of geography listed:

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)

BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)

ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)

RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)

NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10)

NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11)
NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)

RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6)

CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 14(22)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8)
CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)

CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)

MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 9(20)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 6(17)
WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)

MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 3(15)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)

CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14)
CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)

AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)

SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11)

MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) X(14)

JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11)

DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) X(20)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)

ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 9(18) X(18)
ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)

COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 13(26) X(26)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6)

PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 12(25) 1(26)
PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)

FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 11(30) X(30)
FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8)
FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 8(31) X(31)
W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8)

MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 6(25) X(25)
MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)

MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) X(12)
MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)

MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) X(11)
MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)

FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) X(11)

VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9)

TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9)

No... they have very little confidence in what is basically a 3 day forecast, forget about the five day forecast.

Going to sleep.... would be nice to be sure what is going on but tropical weather predication is never a certainty. One thing is a certainty, if Emily pulls it together she will become a Hurricane and Florida most likely will get hit this year, either this storm or the next one.

Sweet Tropical Dreams
Bobbi