Emily... The Question Remains
Despite looking quite good yesterday, Emily this morning looks sort of ragged. Still a lot of potential and I think it's possible she could do what the NHC wants her to do but I don't have high confidence in it.
Why? She has barely moved north at all over the night. If anything she looks like she is "falling and she can't get up" and I'm wondering if she is going to keep going west with the prevailing, lower level wind flow.
I do think it's oddly possible that she continues weakly west, makes the turn too late and somehow gets picked up by the next trough and slides into West Florida. Now, that is a real long shot for me to say, but it's just as possible that she's turning to the NW over the DM. I've wondered on this for a few days and the models actually support it. However, the NHC seems to have thrown out the models. Possibly a good thing to do as sometimes models are wrong. Debby, was a storm that the models loved and the models were wrong. Sometimes you have to know when to go with the models and when to wonder what they've been smoking.
Don't watch the Cone...watch Emily. That is my advice.
As for me, today is a travel day. A long time ago a friend of mine named Caleb promised to take my youngest son somewhere and I'm making good on that promise. A slight detour on a longer trip which is overdue to take. A promise is a promise after all and he's getting older and pretty soon would just do it on his own someday.
The NHC, by the way, NEEDS TO MOVE THE FLOATER... because they stubbornly want to see Emily climb to the right, however she is moving to the left and running out of floater space. Reminds me of that night at the Hurricane Center AOML when Norcross was talking and at the end of the program he looked up annoyed in his anal way and said, "Can someone please change that clock???" as it was months past the time to change the clock but no one had. The floater needs to be moved, come on gang... I know you can do it.
As for me... listening to Sting and have an uneasy feeling in my gut this monring, not so much because I know what the future will be but because I don't and all the models in the world and test runs don't really prove without a shadow of a doubt what will or won't happen.
So.... watch Emily and keep on dancing and don't stop believing on this Journey we call life and love of the tropics ;)