Forecasting Nightmare for Alex...

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/sat_loop.php?image=ir&hours=12

Given the current situation in the Gulf you have a forecasting nightmare that is beginning to remind me of Irene.

In this case, pulling together into a strong hurricane might be better than what I am seeing unfolding on the sat loops is a bad situation going into a holiday weekend.

You can't keep just tracking the center when the storm is tossing off storm balls towards the Tx/La coast. When all the weather from Alex is streaming north with weather that is definitely within tropical depression standards. That's some pretty strong weather being hurdled at the Northern Gulf Coast and the storm itself may turn left like the track shows but the coast of Tx/La is going to suffer some strong weather and that strong weather is moving closer and closer to oil affected beaches.

This is not Floyd turning before hitting Miami and WPB and being a tightly wound storm.

This is more of an Irene mess with a weather mass and a small center.

In this case... Alex pulling it all together into a stronger storm might be the best case scenario rather than the problems I am seeing unfolding on the WV loop.

The NHC may have to face posting some sort of strong weather warning for an area in the Central Gulf, even if the center of Alex moves WNW towards Brownsville, Texas.

Or....Alex wraps into a Category 2 Hurricane and pulls all the weather back into her eye wall and moves towards some nice unpopulated beach in the Tex/Mex area.

As always with hurricanes... only time will tell..

Besos Bobbi
Ps... be back later as I have company in from out of town and showing them around the town while tracking on my blackberry ;)