When Is An Eye an Eye and Did Fay Have One???

I have read more emails and message board posts than you can possibly imagine today on the talk of the tropical town.

Did Fay develop an eye over land as she crossed Florida from the Gulf of Mexico to the Atlantic Ocean??

Here is the picture:



Looks like an eye doesn't it? Dead center on the storm, patch of lighter color... looks like an eye.

But...well there are parameters for an eye it seems and this was more an "eye like feature" which basically means it quacks and spins but it doesn't have it's degree. Sort of like the Scarecrow, the smartest of the bunch trying to get a piece of paper to prove he has a brain when he is the brainest, sweetest of the bunch but he wants to see it on paper.

It's a fine line it seems and a deeply left brain debate for people at the NHC like Avila and others as to what constitutes an eye vs the more generic term "eye like feature" and if you are the type who likes to only buy name brands than you obviously don't think Publix Pain Relief is the same as Tylenol.



or



Is it the same thing?

To be a Left Brain thinker means:
The portion of the brain that excels in rational and analytical thinking.

Right brain is a little more confusing and annoying for Left Brain People:
A theory in which the two different sides, or hemispheres, of the brain are responsible for different manners of thinking.

So... the left brain people are checking every parameter and defending their choice of words and the right brain people are looking at Fay and thinking.. "well, it looks like an eye, is it an eye? They didn't say it's an eye but it's the center of the storm that is moving en masse, has no weather and I think it just blinked and the winds went up, the barometer is down.. it must be an eye"

The Left Brain person is now screaming "IT IS NOT AN EYE!" and making lists and trying to give examples of other eye like features that were not eyes and in post storm analysis...

NOTE the word Analysis is ANAL...

Hmmmmm

Well, I will not define the word anal here but you all get the idea.

The question is that except for researchers and hurricane historians does it really matter?

To quote another Bill who was Director of the Shakespearean School of Tempest Studies:

His gal Juliet said:
"What's in a name? That which we call a rose
By any other name would smell as sweet."
Romeo and Juliet (II, ii, 1-2)

Hmmmmmnnn

I think we could say it's an eye and leave the debate for the experts. Of course usually an eye only forms when a storm is a hurricane and Fay was never upgraded to a Hurricane and well... I suppose the Best Track Team can look this over and dissect it and take it apart and go over all the data and in the off season figure it all out.

An eye? You decide? Either way she definitely found her groove and her center and is spinning like a Cyclone :)




All arguements aside Fay is doing damn well for a storm that has traversed the state of Florida with her circulation in tact and spinning. Yes, she is weaker but you would be weaker too if you had the day she had and may I remind you she gets little respect here from forecasters who are Fay weary and not interested in forecasting yet another Florida landfall if the models verify.

She's slowed down, she's drifting I think. I'm wondering if the ridge is going to build in higher than they thought and if she will come back lower than they thought? I'm wondering what type of energy pills the GFS has been taking, will it work for me?

Have to tell you the models have done a kick ass job!

About 10 days ago someone sent me a model that showed a Tropical Cyclone sitting on the door of South Florida, just off shore which was pretty good for like over 10 days out, possibly 15. I slowed the loop 4 or 5 times to get the date of the Florida landfall and wrote on a piece of paper fast before I went into a meeting 8/19 BURNED.
Yesterday one of the kids asked me if they could look at the paper from their school about school supplies and asked me if I needed it as I wrote something on it. Yup, 8/19 BURNED. I told them no... couldn't think what it was and then when they left I remembered and laughed, shook my head and smiled. Yup... the model hit it more than 2 weeks out give or take and that's pretty good modeling. Okay, it took a detour around Cuba but that model was from when it came off of Africa.

We are doing a great job with hurricanes these days, we are getting closer and closer to the holy grail of intensity forecasting and this storm came in to the day, to the place the models said it would.

And, she is so friggin pretty spinning over Central Florida.

And..why is she holding her own?

They are called "feeder bands" that go out over each coast of Florida and reach down deep into wet water :) and pull it back into the storm and the "eye like feature" and keep it spinning.

See the picture?

As for me.. I am going to sit back and watch the storm spin and if you happen to be a professional met who is forecasting this storm may I suggest to you that you take two and text me in the morning ;)





For those of you cannot sleep ... remember to sleep perchance to dream...

http://www.weathernotebook.org/transcripts/2002/07/04.html

Love Juliet!