Tropical Storm Bertha, Westbound @ 21mph

That's forward speed not intensity however her forward speed has everything here to do with intensity down the line.

If she slows down and develops more convection, her clouds will basically get taller (like a smoke stack) and she will want to go poleward (meteorological code for North, by the way) and the upper level winds will be able to grab her as there is something to grab. Trying to keep this simple. If she stays small she moves along with the lower level winds and never makes it to the big time for the troughs that race from west to east to grab and drag out to sea.

Less is west, More is north though the real story lies somewhere in between I am sure.

Here is Bertha tonight:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rgb.html

Nice loop for this evening. Sometimes black and white makes it easier to watch with less colorful distractions. She will grow some in side (width) tonight as she is finally reaching warmer water. She has raced towards warmer water all day like a vampire bat out of hell trying to find blood to survive on. Or..warm water in her case which she is finding finally in the dead of night.

Look again at that picture of the Water Vapor Loop and see how she is currently trapped under a strong high that is propelling her west. Whether a weakness around 60 opens up in the high allowing her to begin to go "poleward" is based upon weather which is currently very fluid and constantly changing. Like one big lava lamp with unpredictable movement flowing back and forth from one upper level low to another as energy transfers back and forth ...and Bertha races west getting further across the ocean into our neck of the woods to worry upon sooner rather than later.

So... watch that forward speed as she has to be at the door that's open at the right time or the door slams shut and then she has to make up her mind which way to go.

As for models.. The Ukmet has been exceptional in keeping her weak and westward however it loses her just when she finally reaches very warm water which seems unreasonable. I like the Nogaps. Gfs and Gfdl... remain to be seen. The NHC has done a good job trying to read between the lines and in the short term they have been on the money with the storm hitting forecasted points.

Historically speaking I would like to leave something on the table. It's a rare storm that forms in early July off the Cape Verde Islands and makes it this far west. Whatever strange seasonal situation that caused it also has fronts moving west to east across the United States. It is finally raining in North Carolina for instance. Small swirls are hovering around the North/Mid Florida coast and yet we have a very strong Bermuda High out there. In Miami we have had nonstop showers blowing in fast from the ESE colliding with afternoon thunderstorms building out over the Glades.

In a year when strange things seem to happen it makes me wonder if such a set up could support a hit on the Jax/Savannah area that hasn't seen such a hit since Dora that formed late in August but has had a very similar track so far.

Not saying it will happen only that one wonders if this could not just threaten the Wrightsville Beach area with another hit by a storm named Bertha but if this could possibly be a storm that could do another Dora and slam into the Jacksonville area that has come to believe over recent history that they are hurricane proof..


Only time will tell...

But, one thing I want to add before finally going to bed and resting my head.

An amazing weatherman and all round renaissance man taught me that the way the storm looks in the beginning is often how it ends up looking. Well, Bertha was a huge monster when she came off of Africa spinning which is why we were all so excited about her. Yet, between dealing with being over cool waters and facing dusty Saharan sandstorms she weakened and became a small storm with a determined center pulsing up and down with convection traveling along the ocean with only the ghost of her big round pocket she first came off spinning with and... as she goes over warm water she may expand again and fill up that ghostly pocket and become a much larger storm than she is now.

But.. she is what she is right now and we will have to wait and see what she becomes tomorrow and the day after tomorrow.

Best Tropical Update anywhere is at www.hurricanecity.com as Jim is doing incredibly, detailed discussion reminiscent of Norcross when he used to do an in depth 6pm explanation of what was going in the tropics.

And.. going to post a new site every once in a while as I neglect all the incredible sites out there that are worthy of mention so here goes:

http://jonathanvigh.com/weather/hurricanes/tropical_weather.htm

(some great links there... and a very interesting, fun to read meteorologist)

Mucho Besos Bobbi