Thursday Night-Friday Morning. Tropical Storm Warnings for Miami

I went to Publix tonight. There was no one there. It was empty. As if some terror alert for Miami had been issued. The only people in the store were by and larger Orthodox Jews shopping for Shabbos. A few people had water (I did) and a few extra juices. They were taking down a display for something or other and moving it for another display. Not for water.

There was a strong steady breeze that popped up late today. Pressure gradient, wind over the top of Dennis. Combination of the two. It was not there early this morning. An old Seminole Indian back in 1835 would have read that sudden breeze as a caution to worry on a tropical cyclone. The cloud pattern in the sky was different than it has been or it usually is and that same wise Seminole would look up and wonder if a tropical cyclone was coming.

Sadly, we today do not have that sixth sense or even a practical sense to have proper respect for a tropical cyclone.

We respect glossy, glitzy, graphics on a nightly news weather segment. Headlines and tease tags promising information about a Category 4 down to the south of us that is expected to hit the panhandle or big bend of Florida. We feel safe, secure because the glitzy, graphics on TV show a cone that is far to our west. The media goes on a field day of comparing this storm to Ivan and Charley and Miamians wonder what they will do with the weekend.

No one seems to notice or care we are under a tropical storm watch. A watch that may or may not be upgraded in the morning to a tropical storm warning or a hurricane watch. No... that well dressed man on the television doing the weather is talking about Tampa, St. Pete and Pensacola. Something about BIG MOUNTAINS in Cuba.

Clueless it seems is the majority of the population here a decade after Andrew.

Mind you... I am not saying that Dennis is going to hit the South Florida area or Miami dead on. No, I am not saying that. I am saying that South Florida could feel the strong effects of a tropical storm and even possibly a Cat 1 cane depending on the exact path of Dennis. And, no one seems to care.

Trust me. If time was rolled back and Johnny Tiger Sr. was brought back to life and standing on the natural edge of Biscayne Bay down near the mouth of the Miami River and felt that breeze he would with none of today's glossy, computerized graphics, satellite imagery and five day forecast would be in a better position to prepare his family for a possible tropical cyclone.

Why?

People assume. They hear half a forecast and switch channels back fast to Judge Judy.

I have heard the following comments in the last 12 hours since it became apparent Dennis was going to hit Cat 4 and go NW for 24 hours.

"Oh, it's hitting Tampa."

"Can you turn that channel back, I want to see THE CONE." That was said when people in the lunchroom turned the channel to hear Brian Norcross give his explanation of what was happening. They wanted to see A CONE. A picture that would show that the majority of the cone would be going up into the Gulf. They talked while Brian tried to explain what we should know.

"It's only going to be a little bit of rain."

"We aren't getting it, it's going to hit up in Louisianna"

"I heard Accuweather said it is hitting the Gulf Coast near Texas."

"There is a big high protecting us."

"So, big deal. We are just getting more rain. We have had rain nonstop for six weeks, whats a little more rain?"

"I heard it will die out over the mountains of Cuba."

"Cuba will kill it." (Why do they have Hurricane Killer like Roach Killer? My inquiring mind wants to know)

"Its going west of Key West"

Etc, etc.. on and on..

Yes Virginia.. it is going to go somewhere after it passes the Keys and South Florida but this is not a garden variety summer rainstorm. It has to get there first.

I truly hope and pray it stays far to the west of Key West. With all my heart I pray that. I love Key West more than any of you can imagine. I love Key West more than I can imagine. I can walk the streets of the city in my head. Simonton and Truman.. walk aways up to Fleming, turn down to Whitehead, look at Great Grandma's house, stand under the big beautiful poincianna tree that is growing up into the porch ...down around to what used to be Marrero Village, Olivia over... back to Duval.. down towards United wander back up William and down Louisa and over to Simonton again and in circles around the town. Caroline Street. Elizabeth Street. United and Watson, the books store.. the park, the Bight and Duncan Street to stare at Tennessee Williams House. Around and around. I don't want Dennis going anywhere near Duncan Street.

I pray it stays away.

But the storm will go where it wants to go, needs to go to survive.

Away from highs, following lows.. upper air dynamics.. hell a Cat Four can make its own dynamics and throw all the pretty models out the window to start over.

Georges. From the moment it moved towards the Virgin Puerto Rico and Hispanola glossy, graphics and well dressed on air meteorologists explained how Georges would fall apart over land. It would begin to turn. Georges tracked his way across Hispanola and never blinked. Heck, he barely burped. He took on Cuba... again... he kept going and going and didn't turn, didn't blink and barely fell apart. Georges covered more land than any other hurricane I can remember in recent memory. And, survived. And, moved on towards the Lower Keys. Never turned.

I heard Paul Kocin say once on TWC that there are always exceptions to the rule in climatology and unfortunately its those exceptions that do in fact break the rules and those that do.. somehow seem to do it in a BIG way. He said this to explain some freak storm up north, a snow storm I think that came out of nowhere and not forecast. He is right. The exception is always the Big One that messes everything up. Not the garden variety ones.

Rule #1: You never ignore a Cat FOUR when its to your south headed in your general direction.

Rule #2: If a tropical storm watch has been issued for your area the weather bureau is not expecting a garden variety summer shower. They are expecting winds that may gust up and above tropical storm intensity. That includes wind speeds of 60, 65 and 70 mph.

Rule #3: You make an "in case" list of things you need to do.

Rule #4: You watch the news and pay attention to all the details not just look at a picture that can be deceiving.

Rule #5: You err on the side of caution until the all clear has been sounded.

Dave Schwartz on TWC.. Dennis could lose some intensity as it makes its way across the island of Cuba. NOTE: He said "may" and he didn't say how much.

I remember as a little girl watching TV while Cleo was crossing. All the hype. All the jokes about Cleo throwing Fidel off the island. Cleo would come off weak. I remember it bounced and came off stronger than expected and the minute it hit the hot tropical waters of the Florida Straits it intensified rapidly. Oh wow.. who knew?

Johnny Tiger Sr., Seminole Extraordinary Weather man would know. And, if the storm blew by and everyone was safe... he did it all over again when he felt a strong, stiff breeze out of the East during the Hurricane Season after days of no wind. Could be the high strengthening. Could be a tropical cyclone. He didn't wait the whole day til he could go put on the 11pm and see if they issued a watch or a warning.

And, lastly... The Weather Channel has done a big disservice tonight by showing Jim Cantore again (has he bought property) on the beach near Pensacola talking about Dennis. Will it hit Pensacola? Maybe..but priorities are further south and everyone turning on the Tv will see only one thing. His byline for Pensacola. And they will think.. oh its not coming anywhere near here.

I certainly hope so because right now no one, not even the NHC would call an all clear for South Florida or for the Middle Keys. That is why they issued a Tropical Storm Watch but the only one watching is the ghost of Johnny Tiger Sr.

There really are no words.

They say God looks after fools and drunks.

All I can say is "Oh what fools these mortal beings ... etc..etc.."

I hope I am wrong.

I said Dennis wouldn't go across Hispanola.

I said Dennis wouldn't go south of Jamaica.

I said Dennis would form even though it was early July.

I said it was too quiet and Upper Level Lows would start to appear and help steer the storm. They did.

I said Dennis would nick the edge of SE Cuba and stay over warm water for a long time before busting across Cuba and it seems I am right there too.

I said that the high was weakening and that Dennis could take that weakness and turn more north from WNW and it did...it found the weakness.

Clark on www.flhurricane.com has said that even though the high strengthened a little today it is forecast to weaken again and there is good reason for people in the Southern Part of Florida watch out. Various scenarios.

Jim on www.hurricanecity.com has talked about the Keys.

Brian Norcross has talked about the Keys.

But there are people everywhere running around screaming Gulf Storm.

Models are beginning to diverge off and on with each run. Not a good sign.

So far Dennis seems to skirt disaster.. was kind to Jamaica or at least kinder than he could have been. Skirted SE tip of Cuba. Sorry but don't think he is going to veer west and track around Cuba like Gordon. Somewhere, something has to give and he has to cross Cuba.

I fear he is crossing a bit too far east to make that date with destiny in the Gulf but with a bigger date with destiny in the Florida Straits. Yes, he might hit Destin Beach but not until he makes his way across Cuba.

That passage is the whole enchilada. The key to this whole forecast.

Will he cross in a spot that has the least amount of land and mountains to the east of Havana. 90 miles away from Key West and the end of Whitehead Street? Or will he come off the coast of Cuba aiming a bit further up the Keys? Hope not. Because trust me no one on the East or Southeast coast of Florida is prepared for anything other than him cruising into the Gulf.

Hope the clueless are right.

I do because if I am right and they are wrong.. there is going to be outright panic in the upper keys and South Florida at some point tomorrow.

If anyone wants to laugh off a Tropical Storm let them look at the damage reports from Cindy's passage through Atlanta and other areas today.

Who knows the way the wind blows?

I don't. Not for sure. But, trust me if Johnny Tiger Sr. was here he would be watching and preparing more than assuming and ignoring.

You don't ignore a Category Four Hurricane when it is south of you moving in your general direction.

If you learn nothing else today learn that. Remember it. It will save your life and much of your home. Maybe not this time..but sometime, someday.

Wish I was in Key West to light a candle in the grotto.

The kind sisters at St. Marys saved my great grandma's life many times. She probably had a touch of asthmatic bronchitis like I do and they were good friends with my great-grandparents, great-great.. I am forever in their debt and when standing under the big orange-red, fiery poincianna blossoms from century old trees on Truman Avenue I can feel her spirit. I know when she lay there in her room, in St. Marys being brought back to health by the Sisters she looked down at those same poincianna blossoms.

Tropics. Tobacco. Tropical Cyclones.

Key West in the 1880s. Winslow Homer painting pictures of palm trees and hurricanes in the Florida Keys and the Bahamas.

Graphics are nice but until you have felt the force of a hurricane rushing at you, storm surge spraying your face... you don't realize how much power these storms have and I have and I have watched storms bounce off of Cuba and not be taken down to a garden variety tropical storm.

Good luck tomorrow to everyone.

Prayers to all in the path of Dennis.

Bobbi
PS...

You knew there would be a PS.

The NHC issues a cone because ANYWHERE in that cone the hurricane can end up and most likely will. They do NOT want you to concentrate on that dark forecast line or the plots of estimated locations in the middle of the cone. The storm can ride the west side of the cone, the east or straight up the middle.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for MY area. Means tropical storm force winds ARE expected in the Miami area in the next 24 hours.

I'll be offline for Shabbos. Chicken with Honey Dijon Mustard sauce. Orzo. Vegetables. Gefilte Fish, Israeli Salads.

Thank my kids for being so wonderful and patient. Thank my boyfriend, on and off boyfriend for taking us out to dinner tonight. It was a nice night. The calm before the storm. A bit worried on my daughter Rivky who is in camp up in the mountains in NY.. Cindy is still creating damage ...she was just a small tropical storm.