Storm Warnings for the Gulf...watching down below

Storm warnings for the Gulf posted for Cindy.

And, note Cindy has made the turn to the north... should turn a bit more to nne so imagine that cone of uncertainty will get dragged a bit to the right as many of us predicted.

Still just a tropical storm but it is hitting an area already weakened by last years storms. Depending of course if the path moves as right as I think. Either way...its instant replay in the tropics.

Speaking of Instant Replay down below.... Dennis most likely will follow the path of Charley of last year's fame with some variance to either side in landfall.

Are the Keys safe?
Is Miami safe?

Probably Miami but the Keys.. luck or prayers will eventually run out but I keep praying. Last year they kept sliding by... just offshore. Deep breath of relief..
This year? If I didn't have to work today I'd take off and go down and wander around. But, I do.

Most ominous tropical depression discussion I have seen in ages is seen today in the last TD4 advisory.

"
SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR OR OVER THE
CENTER AND THE OUTFLOW HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND IN ALL QUADRANTS.
THERE IS NO SHEAR AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE SO A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING
IS INDICATED...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH SHIPS AND THE GFDL
MODELS."

No shear ahead.

In a pocket of water just north of South American which is causing some friction on his bottom side as he scrapes along and moving more west than they previously predicted to maitain wnw movement. And, that part of the Carib basin is a bit dry (ABC islands) but it is moving into a more favorable area with no shear ahead.

Yesterday everyone was worried about Hispanola. Today that concern has moved west towards Jamaica. Think it will split the difference and lift before. But... where will it lift is the question?

Good post and grid posted on www.hurricanecity.com early on by Jim Williams. Worth studing and remembering.

"Posted by jimw on 7/4/2005, 11:17 pm
User logged in as: jimw

Of all the tracks of hurricanes becoming depressions, in this grid the charley track comes to mind. This looks to be a larger system but more than likely wont be as powerfull..
http://www.hurricanecity.com/grids/grid19.htm"

Either way you look at it the ridge is going to weaken. Cindy isn't helping the ridge and its eroding from other directions as well. Watch the Water Vapor loop for weakness developing in the ridge.