HURRICANE DENNIS

Hurricane Dennis was born today when Hurricane Hunter planes found wind speeds inside the center of Dennis to be within the range of hurricane force winds. He was immediately christened with the important title of HURRICANE.

Now in my experience something, sometimes happens to storms when they become Hurricanes. Something changes. Tracks change. Shapes change. Take Andrew for example. There he was crusing along, struggling along at times towards a date with destinty in a few days time in the Carolinas and as soon as he became a Hurricane he turned around and looked west and never stopped going til he made Landfall.

So I have been far from the cone a few times and then "something happened."

Something changed.

Earlier today Dennis was struggling along, ingesting dry air or having an internal problem. No one has been able to figure it out. Maybe Dennis just had a change of mind and roared to life..who knows.

There is the look of movement more northerly in the last few hours. Earlier today I was beginning to give up the US landfall ship and think Dennis was about to crash into Central America. I mean ALL of the similar storms highlighted on www.wundergound.com all showed a western landfall. Could Dennis really be this crazy?

The Canadian model that I do love for the most personal of reasons seems to constantly take Dennis more east than the other pack. Maybe it has a penchant for the beaches of South Florida and the Keys. Don't know. Just do know that... it insists it sees something that would take Dennis to the right of the other guidance models. My question... short of bathing beauties at Haulover what does it see? Sees something.

What do I see?

I have watched the water vapor loop until I can barely see. I am taking a rest. Waiting for the 11pm.

I see strong high pressure to Dennis in the Western Carib. I see high pressure back up around his backside at 2pm to 3pm. I see high pressure, dry air racing down along Cindy's backside and some shortwave tango dance going on around the middle of the country. Dry air pouring down filling up the Western Gulf. So that area seems out. The high is very elongated.

The weaknessis over Florida and the Bahamas for the next few days.

Could the high split? They do that a lot when what gets too big for it's britches can't handle it anymor it splits down the seam. Seen it happen.

Could it happen? It could.

Dennis could lift a bit suddenly for a day or two. Give everyone from Miami to Tampa and the Keys a case of the jitters and then as the high builds in again it continues along the west coast of Florida maybe even staying just off shore. Maybe.. or something similar.

That would be my long shot theory.

Best shot would be to follow the NHC with a little tug at the right side of the cone.

Is Key West safe? Hmmmmmmmmmmmmdeep breath.. don't know.
Lower Keys?? Don't know.

Still too early to signal the all clear for Florida and still too early to call which way the wind will blow in Jamaica. Might just take the north road across the top of Jamaica and head its way across Cuba.

Will see.

Either way I do expect Dennis to be a major cane.

A stall somewhere wouldn't surprise me either.. depends on a few factors.

Let's see the models with the new data from the dropsondes. Gee, I wonder whose dropsondes they used. Sigh.

Well this is about as on topic as I can get. Clark over on Flhurricane.com did a beautiful job today. So did Gary Gray, excellent discussion. GianMarc, Tim, Jack all doing a bang up job at www.hurricanecity.com keeping me enjoying the show. Rich owes me a tour and dinner lol. Hope he still has those candles I sent him to light at the shrine at St. Marys in Key West. As for Bastardi, I gave him up for lent. Oh I am Jewish? Hmmmm well its sort of a 12 steps program. We take it one day at a time. Glad he has a purpose in life.

As for me?

My brother Ronnie who missed Andrew and the Superstorm is out of town. That leaves South Florida wide open for a direct hit. Laughing..giggling. Been an old joke in the family he scares away storms.

My daughter is back from Philly, looking good and hanging with her friends. My youngest son is a wishcaster. Florida is getting hit with a Cat 3. He refuses to discuss any other scenario. Kids are okay in summer partying mode. Their mommy is okay. I had a nice evening last night with a friend, private, personal do not talk online about it. It's been hot hot hot out there all day. Hurricane Hot? Don't know. Trying to decide.

We had hamburgers for dinner on onion rolls.

Going back to the City.. www.hurricanecity.com and seeing what my friends think.
Watching good discussion on TV ... stay tuned. Good advice.
Anytime there is a hurricane to our south.."stay tuned"

Summer, in the city..hot town .. oh joy..here is my song for the night.

Hot town, summer in the city
Back of my neck gettin' dirty-'n'-gritty
Been down, isn't it a pity
Doesn't seem to be a shadow in the city
All around people lookin' half dead
Walking on the sidewalk, hotter than a match-head

[Refrain:]
But at night it's a different world
Go out and find a girl
Come on, come on and dance all night
Despite the heat, it'll be all right
And babe, don't you know it's a pity
The days can't be like the nights
In the summer in the city
In the summer in the city

Cool town, evening in the city
Dressed so fine and looking so pretty
Cool cat, looking for a kitty
Gonna look in every corner of the city
'Til I'm wheezing like a bus stop
Runnin' upstairs, gonna meet you on the roof top

[Refrain]

Hot town, summer in the city
Back of my neck gettin' dirty-'n'-gritty
Been down, isn't it a pity
Doesn't seem to be a shadow in the city
All around people lookin' half dead
Walking on the sidewalk, hotter than a match-head

[Refrain]