Wednesday July 6, 2005 Tropical Round up

Okay back at the OK Corral we are watching Dennis.

When I say "watching" perhaps that is a weak word for what is REALLY going on.

We are staring blurry eyed racing from one image to another, looping them both and then super imposing the Water Vapor Imagery with the Visible with the Enhanced IR and for those of us who are really bored doing JUST that we are toying with Shortwave imagery and Dvorak Loops. By next week, those of us not doing clean up after the storm, we will be seeing Dennis in our mind's eye for a long time to come.

11AM Discussion told the story of a government agency taking the conservative approach to all of this Dennis the Menace Madness and waiting for the actual location of the center and it's actual strength before upgrading to a Hurricane. I can buy that thought process. We are still a long ways away from being SURE from satellite imagery. Dennis though clearly visible to a small child on a wide view satellite image is harder to tell deep down at lower levels. He is keeping his cards to his vest. And, I think he is both a player and a gambler.

Been watching Dennis for days now. Since he left the coast of Africa with two little beady eyes like the BAD Canes sometimes do. They have this little baby monster look in their baby shots. I know because one of the best weather guys in the world used to send me "baby snapshots" of waves as they emerged. Kept one that developed for years in a keychain frame as a reminder and momento. They have a look and it's apparent. Dennis had the look of a wave that wanted to cause trouble and trouble he will cause somewhere. Unless he is the ghost of Debby to haunt those trackrs and forecasters who have forgotten lessons learned.

What do we know?

No shear.
Warm Water.
Upper Air Conditions Excellent.
Seems stacked and together vertically.
Speed slow enough to have further intensification.
Has reached about the edge of the high pressure ridge ..or what is left of it.

From that we would say that Dennis will intensify nicely and at some point begin slowing down and show his hand a little better. If he keeps going west all bets are off but I don't think this is a typical July Carib Storm. It is August in the Carib this year.

Right of forecasted track. How right is 64 million dollar question.

A turn up across the mid-point of Cuba seems in the cards but Dennis isn't letting anyone peek.

Planes go in later this afternoon. With xray vision and some really handy dandy dropsondes they will get a better picture and we will have some solid facts.

Til then.. it's a guessing game.

Taking a break for lunch. Food, wow? Didn't eat dinner last night though did have a few spoonfuls of Baskin Robbins ice cream. Just a few. Okay so the smart man was nice, it was nice to have some ice cream in the freezer. Looked at Drudge. London for the Olympics? Hmmm was hoping for France. Matt hates me for that one, trust me. Sorry I want to see Paris and Provence. Sue me. There was an earthquake on Prince Edward Island. http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_acan.html

Why am I getting advertisements and maps in the mail for that place? I did not order them.

Lunch is calling. Need a break.

Last night I sat talking to a friend about Dennis but neither or us were talking or typing (can do both you know) just exhausted.

Truth is... Dennis is cutting into my social life. Gonna be a while until I get to go back to the Buffet at this rate :(

Fortune Cookie Says: Right of Current Forecasted track.

Going to go back and think on what those models said a few days back. There were options. Right now the models are in agreement. Bad sign. Because as usual something will show its ugly face and mess up perfection. An ULL is my immediate guess. The Water Vapor Loop shows some rearranging going on. Watch carefully to see which model breaks with the pack and see what it is... it is seeing.

Happy Birthday to my brother Jay who is in Athens celebrating doing what I know he is doing, putting coins into the internet cafe machine and sitting there staring at loops.

Last thought before lunch.. If an ULL forms in the Atlantic to the North of Dennis. All bets are off.

Bobbi
blurry eyed but cute and way to knowledgeable to just simply buy a forecast map that changes every six hours. Consistency.. that is what John Hope always said to go with. Maps change every six hours. Probs change, they go up and down. Friends are forever. Thank you Jim, Rich, Howie and Burns.

Just remember..forecasting a storm is not as easy as opening up a fortune cookie and getting the answer.