Plan of the Day

Decided to go with the following...

Work straight from the NHC site as much as possible. Something I have rarely done in the past. Check in at hurricanecity and look around a few other sites.

Watch the water vapor loop for signs of possible patterns evolving.

Long term.. keep an eye on discussion out of Key West as that is the Florida city more likely to be impacted first.

And, make lists for things I want and need to do in July.

Discussion below with links .. kept here for my own needs and stay on track with the plan.

Lastly.. remember to listen to weathe radio.
Oddly, you get alot of information on the weather radio as to trends with the high and other infor that you rarely get at NHC.

It's all about combing the various resources to give you the clearest picture.

NHC.. basic advisories, discussion, fast graphics
NWS.. gives good discussion days out for a featured area
www.hurricanecity.com has good links and some very good posters with indepth discussion that goes beyond what the official line is..

wunderground.com for fast quick round robbin view of whats going on

flhurricane.com has posters worth writing home about and its a complex site to play with if you are into certain graphics

accuweather is always fun if you've got the money honey and the time.. i dont

and just for old times sake... www.intellicast.com ..hires always pretty to look at

Key West NWS has great resources... nice tropical page too.. great photos for relaxing from hurricane terror at eleven :)

Waiting for Dennis to be Dennis is the theme of the day..

"http://www.srh.noaa.gov/eyw/productview.php?pil=EYWAFDEYW"

take care, be well, smile as much as you can its good for you and good for everyone else around you..
Bobbi

FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
445 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2005

.DISCUSSION...
VERY DRY AIR ALOFT REMAINS PREVALENT OVER THE KEYS...AND OVER A
LARGE SURROUNDING REGION INCLUDING AREAS ENCOMPASSING THE WESTERN
BAHAMAS, THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND, CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...
ACCORDING TO GOES SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER SOUNDING MEASUREMENTS. KEY WEST DOPPLER RADAR IS DETECTING
CLOUD LINES OVER THE KEYS AND ADJACENT WATERS...BUT SO FAR OVERNIGHT
JUST ONE OR TWO SHORT-LIVED SMALL SHOWERS HAVE FORMED WITHIN THESE
LINES OUT IN THE STRAITS. MARINE WINDS ARE FROM THE EAST...IN THE
10-15 KT RANGE AT C-MAN SITES BUT GUSTING AT TIMES TO 20 KT. FALLING
PRESSURES IN THE GULF ASSOCIATED WITH NEWLY-NAMED TROPICAL STORM
CINDY PROBABLY ARE GIVING WINDS A FEW KNOTS SPEED OVER WHAT THE WEAK
RIDGE TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST IS PROVIDING. IR SATELLITE SHOWS A
CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER PATTERN UPSTREAM...TO OUR EAST...OVER THE
BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC. THE TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST HAS NOT
FALLEN BELOW 84F SINCE MIDNIGHT.

.FORECASTS...
TODAY-TONIGHT...DRY AIR ALOFT AND ITS SUPPRESSION OF MOST
(BUT NO ALL) SHOWER ACTIVITY APPEARS WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. SOME LATE NIGHT SHOWERS MAY COME OFF THE STRAITS IN CLOUD
LINES. TEMPS MAY HIT OR TOP 90F AT MOST ISLAND LOCATIONS TODAY...
AND THE EAST WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS AT 80F OR ABOVE TONIGHT.

WED-WED NIGHT...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
INDICATED FOR WED AND WED NIGHT WITH A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW. THIS MAY
ALLOW A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITHIN
CLOUD LINES...BUT OVERALL CHANCE OF RAIN STILL MAY BE LOW...AND
AT THIS TIME NOT WORTH MORE THAN THE ONGOING 20 PCT.

THU...GFS INDICATES CONTINUED INCREASING MOISTURE SURFACE UP TO 10
THSD FT...WHILE THE NAM IS STINGIER...SHOWING A MOISTURE INCREASE
MAINLY BELOW ABOUT 5-7 THSD FT. BOTH MODELS SHOW DEEP LAYER WINDS
GOING NE AND INCREASING GRADUALLY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT THIS MAY
MAINLY PLAY OUT FOR AREAS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS. 30 PCT POPS FOR
ZONES AND COASTAL WATERS WILL BE MAINTAINED...AND A SLIGHT
INDICATION OF NE WIND INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY WILL BE MENTIONED FOR
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OF WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION NO. 4.

THU NIGHT...GFS INDICATES SOME FURTHER INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...BUT NOT YET MUCH LIFT IS INDICATED. 30 PCT POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. HOWEVER...GFS AND NAM BOTH INDICATE NE WINDS INCREASING
CLOSE TO 20 KT OVER STRAITS COASTAL WATERS...MAYBE NOT QUITE THAT
MUCH FOR THE ISLANDS, BAY, AND GULF...AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE (NOW TD
4) CLOSES IN ON CUBA.

FRI-SAT...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER PROGS TAKE TROPICAL CYCLONE
NUMBER 4 WNW OVER CUBA, INTO ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTHWEST OF THE LOWER
KEYS...THENCE TURNING MORE NW OVER GULF WATERS...WITH A
STRENGTHENING TREND. IF THIS WORKS OUT...EVENTUALLY THE KEYS WOULD
COME UNDER DEEP DISTURBED TROPICAL FLOW AROUND THE NORTH, EAST, AND
SOUTHEAST SIDES OF THE TC...WITH SOME EFFECTS OF ITS OUTER WIND
CIRCULATION. HIGH UNCERTAINTY PERVADES THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS
IS USUAL WITH DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEMS SEVERAL DAYS OUT.

SAT NIGHT-SUN....DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF STRENGTHENING
OF TC NUMBER 4...THE KEYS MAY BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT AND CALM DOWN.

SUN NIGHT-MON...HOPEFULLY EFFECTS OF TC4 WILL BE WANING.
&&

.MARINE...
TROPICAL STORM CINDY IN THE GULF MAY KEEP AREA MARINE WINDS GOING E
OR ESE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE TODAY AND TONIGHT. IF CINDY DEEPENS...
EVEN THOUGH MOVING FARTHER FROM THE KEYS...WE MIGHT SEE SOME GUSTS
UP AROUND 20 KT OR SO. WEATHER ON THE WHOLE LOOKS FINE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...PROBABLY WED TOO...WITH LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NUMBER 4 IN THE EAST CARIBBEAN APPEARS
TROUBLESOME FOR KEYS MARINE WEATHER...PERHAPS STARTING WITH AN
INCREASE IN NE WINDS THU NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...BASED IN NHC
FORECASTS...FRI THROUGH SAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE A TIME FRAME FOR
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO MOVE INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE KEYS
WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AT THE MINIMUM FOR
OTHER AREAS. IF TC 4 MOVES INTO THE GULF...AND STRENGTHENS...
WINDS MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE OVER KEYS WATERS EVEN SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN. KEEP A CHECK ON LATEST ADVISORIES ABOUT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NUMBER 4.
&&