Hurricane Harbor: Wave Train Busy Like Palmetto Expressway at Rush Hour. Which Survives? Which Thrives? How Will New AI Models Handle the Traffic? 2 Areas of Interest!!

Love Zoom Earth....

...shows the satellite imagery and areas of interest.

I still do not understand why NHC won't do this..

...but am sure they have their reasons.

You can see the SAL.

You can see the convection.

(always watch the water vapor with waves....)

Does a wave develop into a storm...

..that gets precariously close to OBX

Similar to the clouds out there today?

Somewhere between Bermuda and OBX?

I keep wondering on that...

...because of current pattern.

Mike is awesome with grids...

...isn't he?

That said this is very long range modeling. This is very, very long range modeling as forecasting that these waves might develop and end up close to the US coastline but not be a threat (as I have heard some say as if they have tropical psychic powers) as the reality is what we think fronts will or won't do this time year is not very reliable and all depends on how close ...how fast......how slow the models go and IF they are battling an Upper Level Low or other factors I'm not going into as this is already too long a run on sentence. Believing in a 10 day models with two possible systems close together this far out is like the world's longest run on sentence.

So going to take it slow, watch in real time, check the models and get on with my life today. The wave over Africa is delicious to watch from a distance on the satellite loops, it literally has a spin to it. But I am not obsessing. Let's see what we see tomorrow. Lots to watch suddenly and I'm taking it one day at a time, one wave at a time.

yes I know my fav hurricane season song

Yes I'm using it as a sound track as I loop....

There is so much I want to say but I'm not ready to say regarding the Wave Train of August 2026. Our two areas being watched by the NHC and the third wave waiting to join the party. It's a Conga line and haven't seen one in a while so I want to sit back and enjoy it. Once upon a time there were models. And, when I say models I mean usually the good one and the crappy one and the new one getting attention. Then we had an array of good models, but mostly talked on talked on the EURO vs the GFS. Now we have the AI models and there are a whole lot of them, so choose wisely. And, can't wait to see how well the new improved 2026 AI models do with a wave train that's as congested as the Palmetto Expressway at Rush Hour... if you know you know.

I love models.

You know what I love more? I love watching satellite imagery and using other data to slice and dice a good wave train. I love the wide view of what is happening everywhere that the models see when they spit out conflicting data. I love chasing. I love being at the ocean preferably feeling the wind, the waves, and watching sea foam flying in the wind and even here inland in Raleigh the way we chased a line of wild storms by ISAIAS in 2020 talk about getting out into the world during the whole Covid mess. So never lose site of of these parts of the equation nor get lost in just one part of the drama.

I'll be honest. I am not rushing this. I am not obsessing nor freaking out. My thoughts are tempered by both El Nino and a good knowlege of Hurricane History. Don't rush it. Enjoy it. Savor it like coffee or sex or a good football game. I mean we are talking on models promising development on Friday. Note Friday is FIVE days away before we even get lift off for possible development. Pace yourself!

For the South Florida crowd...

Phil as always is awesome to follow.

Even if you don't live in S FL..

Currently my mind is here....

Interesting wave over Africa still.

Interesting, fantastic QB that played for Carolina..

...oh my goodness.

Time will tell...

Did y'all know Lynette Charles is one of my favorite people on TWC? Just putting it out there. She is smart, she is smooth, she is classy, she is on top of it all and does a great job showing the whole picture of weather on Sunday Morning. Love listening to friends on YouTube. I watch a lot of Fox Weather as they do a bang up job, less set in parameters that TWC tends to be, they show satellite imagery, radar they show the weather and even watch Weather Nation even though I'm not in Canada. Apps... are good, I watch them all ................. but currently pacing myself, enjoying the moments. Watching the way the sun hits my window decorations when it hits a certain height in the sky. I stand outside in the earning morning and feel how the balcony is cooler in the morning than it's been; drier before the heat heats up and the humidity that rules the day. I ponder what Autumn decoration I'll put up when I take the Summer stuff down because I'm Southern and we do that.

Stay tuned. Don't rush this..... take it slow, take it in parts and don't buy any 10 day out forecast and never rule out surprises in El Nino years.

Never. Stop. Chasing.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

Always amazes me at times such as these I live in the Carolinas and have for a long time. I go to Miami often so sometimes I forget. So when I look at a wave train I look with one eye on Miami and the other eye on Raleigh Durham area. I really live here, go figure. Often debating how close it'll come to Wilmington and Wrightsville Beach ...even if it's curling away.... Enjoy the music, it tells a story with musical clues.