Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, June 17, 2024

NHC Puts Out a Cone for PTC 1 That Should Become Alberto (In theory) while other Invest Shows Signs of Life in ATL...

Potential Tropical Cyclone #1

Salient points here are currently it has a poorly defined center at best, and movement in the short term may be erratic until it finds it's groove. Watches are up so places in the path of this potential cyclone can make preparations. Moisture associated with the system and the greater CAG will move towards the Central Coast of GOM as well as Texas cities far from it's forecast landfall in Mexico. Often systems such a as this can ramp up fast and come together just before landfall, so while it's not very threatening now not ignore the potential for trouble with localized flooding at landfall and possibly deeper inland. Stay tuned, this is a heads up we have something coming together that may make landfall in 48 hours and we need to get the word out now while people have time to prepare. Coordinates below. Current movement NNW but expected to hang a left fast and hook in towards the Mexican coast.

20.3N  93.2W moving NNW

Wes is my on air Met in NC

Forecasted strength and points is below.

Wind Probs

 PTC 1 


Thoughts on the Set Up

One question for me is doesn't the "center" of what could become Alberto move back towards the EPAC or does the rain move up into the Rio Grande River Valley? While we are looking at heavy rains to the North of landfall, being shunted by the strong flow North to the Mississippi River Valley we could also have a flooding scenario in parts of Mexico. And, it's also possible that the leftover moisture, left behind from this Central American Gyre AKA CAG could produce another area to watch in the Gulf of Mexico. Lots to watch and a sort of dry run for when we begin development of tropical waves in a few weeks. 

The CAG is not pretty.
Well, maybe like a modern art pinwheel?
Focus on the center of the BOC... 

It is possible something else spins up.
From moisture left behind in GOM.
As what could be Alberto scoots fast to landfall.

In the ATL...
.... some consolidation of color.
And a nice signature on Earthnull.
Just my thoughts.
Could be a Georgia Storm.
How rare would that be?
We always think...
Florida or Carolinas.
Everyone forgets about poor Georgia.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,
will Update with info as needed.
If there's anything definitive to say.


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