Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, June 17, 2024

Named Storm Forming in the BOC? Alberto Is That You?? Beryl a Good Name for a Fast Forming Storm Off SE Coast....IF It Forms. Recon Going into BOC System That Is Forming. Will Update Later Today ...

Regarding Texas and the Central American Gyre be aware that formation finally happens quickly, while the process of watching for what seems like weeks in one area begins to bore us and or make us restless, but slowly something happens. Why? There's been something all along, it's just been on the EPAC side slithering back and forth attempting to jump into the BOC (on the left side) and when all the aspects click into place and it's good and ready "poof" some closed system will be cradled in the curve of the Yuctan and it's a short trip inland. Once in a while some wrench is thrown into the set up, but usually a little, small center forms and hooks left. 

Viewing this region as one area vs two helps. That's hard to do the way the NHC has eternally set up it's forecast zones, so going to just the ATL side you only see half the story. Going to the EPAC side of the NHC site you will see a little yellow X with zero percent chances of development. See above. Below we go to the ATL side of the page that most are familiar with and what to we see??? We see a horse of a different color, a seahorse of course.

NHC used more words in this tropical update there early morning 2 AM update than I usually do ..that tells you something. Below is the 8 AM when they finally put it out, they must be writing as it's coming out fairly late for them.

3 things to note from the older one above that I like but get missed in Memes on Twitter
1. They mention tropical storm not just tropical depression.
2. They use the "regardless" term that I can always hear with attitude in my head for some reason.
3. They direct you to the High Seas Forecast. This is a hint it's a complicated, messy set up.

possible tropical cyclone
that infers a name.
Alberto in theory.

NHC seems ready to go once it's actually forms and is visible in the ATL side and as the EPAC side is at zero currently, we are go for lift off soon. No one ever said it would be pretty, it's not some westbound, vigorous tropical wave it's a push me/pull me form of formation that you will see in real time soon nuff on satellite imagery.

Salient points from the 8 AM update.
"low pressure is forming" current tense, in the process....this IS happening. 
I'm going to leave this open today to come back and update it as a Cone may pop up before we see the spin and swirl around an exact center as this could impact land in the short term vs the long term. thing doesn't always have to do with another and especially this time of year when the CAG can produce different areas to watch and this has happened often in the past. A little low goes somewhere and another part of the remaining moisture shield takes off with the general flow Northward to slam some city along the GOM with obscene amounts of rain. One way or another rain will be the factor and that can lead to flooding if it moves towards a populated area that was built in a bayou. It could also move in further to the South across a beautiful part of Texas that is less populated but would be extremely vulnerable with many barrier islands. Note we aren't talking a hurricane storm surge, we are talking about stubborn rain that trains and doesn't want to go anywhere soon and why would it ...that's a beautiful part of the Texas coastline.

Thirdly, recon is going in today and they will try and obtain the specific information that the satellite imagery and models are having problems smoking out.

70% in the 7 day
70% in the 2 day

NHC is putting out Jaws soundtrack music here.
I'd imagine it gets an Invest before a name, and still waiting on the Invest to go up.

Long awaited 8 AM is here.
Gale Warnings ARE up.
Hurricane Hunters Going IN.... threatening rains could happen. 
70% this could be named TODAY
or tomorrow.
We have a red X
as close to a done deal as it gets.

Showing in real time the birth of a system.
Alberto is that you?
Race for the A name today.

10% in 2 day - 30% in 7 day.
NHC puts an X on the nose of ?? Beryl??
See the little curvature to the left of the X.
See the old decaying frontal boundary to the NE of it.
This is classic formation zone for small TD or TS

So now let's go look at the ATL now, up close and personal. 

Mimic often shows where it goes.
Looks like a pimple on a nose.
Interplay in the zone below...
..shows where it could go.

We'll circle back to this later today.
I will do an update.
Facts below

30% chance for a tropical system to spawn and move towards land later this week. 
Everything depends on where and when it sets up and whether it moves W or WNW. 
While this seems annoying, it's as basic as it gets. ATL system sets up from an old dying frontal boundary that has sat too long over warm, tropical waters with a high to the North. The High and every undulation of the high, every wiggle of it's hips, every expansion of it's huge dirigible shape that looks as if it's trying to find a place to land and anchor. Lord knows that High must be tired, I know I'm tired of it and it

It probably doesn't like being called "The Death Ridge" but social media demands a name and since we don't name Highs social media finds one. Watch the various undulations, again, of the High Pressure. Long range forecast for this weekend shows rain in Wilmington, Myrtle Beach, etc. Horrific heat and then a cooling off and rain. Could this be the rain? Stay tuned. 

Where is that center you ask?
Most likely below.

The "center" that is trying to form is right there.
The light lavender curvy looking bump.
East of the red crap.

As one takes over... it's all in timing.
Models? GFS... goes to NC.
On this last run.... just one run.

I'll update later.

On a personal note I'm dealing with typical seasonal frustrations. I hate the heat, prefer the cooler weather and like wind, lots of wind ...obviously. I have two funerals to go today, probably the later one however it'll be hot. I have a sweet friend, much older but youthful in spirit who lost her husband a while back (sweet man) they were a cute lovely couple and her 57 year old son suddenly died of a heart attack this weekend. The earlier one I don't know and probably won't go but will see, my husband was friends with the family for years when his kids were young, old man in his 80s died in his sleep. Not trying to be morbid, just staying real here with y'all cause real is important as I'm not a Bot ya know ...

Stay tuned...........planes going in ;)

Besos BobbiStorm
Ps forgive any typos I'll correct later.
Eyes/allergies bothering me.
Hate the heat, heats up all the allergens.

One way or the other...
..we will get a named storm soon.


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