Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, June 15, 2023

African Wave 20% Yellow NHC - Models Keep It Going Across the Atlantic - Then What Happens? That's the Question.....


Good morning, let's keep this in perspective here as our AFRICAN wave is still out there by Africa rolling off of Africa about to dive into the Atlantic that is warmer than normal for this time of year. Yesterday a slow building hum of activity on Twitter, not yet a flutter, began as models showed this wave could actually pull together enough to be a closed Low in the 3rd week of June. The old rhyme says "June too soon" but in years when the water temps are anomalousy high such as this June speculation has been rampant online that named storms could form early. This is a cool test of that theory that the hot pool of water in the MDR (Main Development Region) could produce early infamous CV Waves that travel for days, while models offer solutions and trackers track and chasers begin to dream on where they will go ...............IF the models are correct and it forms.

This is not the GFS showing a Cat 5 hitting Texas on one run and a Cat 4 hitting Alabama on the next run, this is an agreement in models on many levels and we are not playing "where's the Fantom Hurricane today" but tracking an African Wave that has potential. 

This is not about formation, it's simply about what might form if the models are correct. Yes, I said that twice because it's really important to remember models change often and this is very early for development. That said, this tropical wave has looked like it wants to spin and get a hurricane symbol the way every little child wants to be a fireman or a ballerina, or a ballerina depending on their mood on any given day. What does this little wave want to be and what will the atompshere allow it to be, as in the end the atmosphere gets the final vote. Though when you have a persistent wave that fights off shear and cooler than optimum water temperatures you can end up with a Hurricane Bertha in July.. but in late June.  Can happen but it's rare.

Models are like the moon they wax and wane as Charles once quoted Shakespeare in highschool drama class reminding us we never swear by the moon nor in this case the models. 

But, OH MY GOSH.... the excitement is a crescendo as every weather person online tries to show their best view of a model as if it's their putting on their fancy Sunday clothes and yet what we want to know and want to see is if this wave has the stuff to go the distance and even get a designation. Understand even being a Tropical Depression or a short lived Tropical Storm would be huge. Going beyond that is a crap shoot too vague and hard to tell as the ensembles below show us. Ensembles are various possible tracks that a system, if formed, might take. Note the difference in that some show it moving North of the Islands making everyone in Florida and the Bahamas gets nervous, others actually take it into the Caribbean.

They all have the same starting point.
Then they take different routes.
This is how a cone is drawn.
Takes in all the possibilities.
Not exactly the way it's drawn but nuff said.

No matter the time of year, June or July or August the early waves from Africa all have this general "does it go into the Islands" or does it "clip the islands" or does it become a contender for a Florida or Carolina landfall? It all depends on the High, a living breathing feature that contracts and expands from day to day and the forward speed of a wave that could turn into Bret helps tell the story as it's all about where and when the system meets up with the bend in the High. Some models show a kink there that could allow it to climb, others show it snapped shut and shunts "Bret" West or WNW. 

Stay tuned. We've only just begun as the song goes and no I am not playing that one today! If you click on the image above you will see that the GFS on the left and the EURO on the right BOTH have what's left of it on the same day in the same place dealing with the same problem, where does it go.

Note models close it off early but with time it faces obstacles, as things seem now. Things change as weather is not stagnant and the atmosphere flows, always rearranging itself, realligning itself and models then go wonky and no longer agree.  

Lastly, let's say Bret forms and swims West, it doesn't mean it stays together as shear near the islands is always a thing compared to the relative warm swimming pool it's in now near Africa once it gets into choppy seas we see what the wave really has under the hood!

We'll see what we see, but what is true is the NHC is officially paying attention and studying models and atmospheric patterns. If it becomes an Invest, that's a whole new ballgame and we take this one step close to being a TD or Bret.

By this afternoon we will see what the next model runs show and also how the wave itself is doing. May update if we go beyond yellow 20% status, our current yellow banana out in the far Atlantic.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Twitter mostly weather, Instagram weather and whatever..


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