New African Wave Making a Tropical Symbol - Model Support There BUT Briefly - Early to Go the Distance. Tropics Quiet. 19th Year Anniversary of This Blog. Go Figure...

 

If you look by Africa.....new wave.

Looks like a Hurricane symbol!

Higher up also.

Not very juicy tho... 

But waving a flag there... got something.

Lead wave out front was juicy.

That's one impressive ITCZ for June.

Impressive SAL signal too!!

Red for newbies means DRY dusty air.

Saharan Dust.

Waves ride in tandem with them in June and July.

This is from @AlanSevere on Twitter.

He likes to show long range models.

So showing him showing them!

Also small possibilities off Carolina coast.

But there is some support.

Waves in June can form but usually fade away.

My thoughts on the rest of the week is that while there are flashes of developmental chances on various models, the Atlantic Basin is not very friendly in a tropical way. If you are taking a cruise now enjoy the good weather, it could be worse. And, as always it's the tropics and there are the chances in the Caribbean for tropical rain, occasional flooding where there is terrain especially but nothing really going on.

I'm thinking the last week of June we could have something named. Few days before June 25th, a few days after we could have yellow/orange circles and even possibly a designated late June system somewhere. The pattern is positive on many levels for early June development this year, but for every positive signal there is a negative symbol.

Early strong Tropical Waves vs Saharan Dust Outbreak.

Shear developing in the Caribbean from El Nino a NEGATIVE... hot water in Atlantic a POSITIVE.

Being honest, generally the shear from El Nino fights off the nice looking waves that have potential and some model support. The shear and low Jetstream is already in place, El Nino is in place and growing as it expands out to the West into the Pacific. 

I know a lot of people are putting out Click Bait articles online arguing how fast El Nino will grow vs the others putting out articles insisting we aren't sure how fast El Nino will grow; careful where you go on YouTube also where that's concerned.  My advice, let's watch it in real time. We are OFFICIALLY in an El Nino based on the parameters set and it's been announced and it's here, obviously a red tongue lashing out towards the Pacific growing faster than many skeptics and deniers who have been insisting it's not all that big a deal. It's a big deal. Nothing kills hot, sexy tropical waves faster than a persistent ongoing area of shear that is shearing off the tops of all it's beautiful new hats they put on to wear at some Straw Market in the Bahamas. Those waves look great even battling SAL but as they move further West they begin to lose their convection and putter and sputter fast moving into the Shear Zone. 

Remember the line in Twister about the Suck Zone? In the Tropics we have a SHEAR ZONE when El Nino sets up. El Nini IS set up!

Sometimes they sneak in or lift up just before the Islands, clipping the Virgin Islands that get some fringe winds and then they can slide into warm water from the Gulfstream with less shear in the Bahamas and become a concern for Florida and all the tropical ports of call going up towards OBX the dividing line between the Tropical South and the Northern part of the South being Virginia and Maryland. Coastal, Deep Southern places such as Mobile don't really think of the Chesapeake Bay as "Southern" and I'm old Florida so yes I agree.

Anyway...... keep an eye on the tropics late next week as I do think something is going to pop up and get some official attention. But Father's Day Weekend should be good weather and about whatever Big Daddy wants, be it fishing, sports, beach or hiking or just sitting at home with family or working in his vegetable garden. It's a good day to thank any "father" like figure in your life be it a neighbor, an Uncle or whoever. We all have people in our lives who are like a parent to us, even when we are blessed with parents we adore there's always that one person. Thank them!

I have a younger brother who was both friend, partner-in-crime and Uncle to my kids while growing up, especially the younger ones who I raised mostly on my own after "the divorce" and their father moved up to New York. So "Uncle Ronnie" let his inner child come out and traveled around the country with my youngest son, he insisted another son Mendy could only stay in the house (after I remarried and moved away) if he agreed to go to college or a some sort of program and he did and he graduated. My Uncle Oscar was everything growing up, Old Florida accent smooth like honey, he went to Gainseville, became an Attorny and taught me to believe in myself. Uncles are important!

Lastly, this blog is officially 19 years old today. I started it on a lark and pissed off because everyone on Hurricane Message Boards were fighting, snarky and honestly I owe Jim Williams as he kept threatening to close down the CaneTalk Message board on his site because some of the pranksters were driving him and some others crazy. Me... I'd laugh it off, but some people took the pranksters seriously and it was slow being June (duh) and everyone was antsy for action that looked as if it would never happen ... so blogs being a new thing and as I'm a WRITER who likes to write long, enjoying what comes out as I'm typing in real time. Especially back in those days when no one was reading the blog but an old writing friend of mine or two and a few people from the Message Boards I felt free to write as if I was writing in my own Weather Diary Online with private funny jokes, rants and just endlessly being myself which actually was great therapy in those crazy days. THEN... it became widely read and I found out Michelle Malkin was linking to Hurricane Harbor Blog during Katrina and the Washington Post mentioned it and then the Wall Street Journal mentioned me as a voice to listen to in the Hurricane Season and well .......while it's been fun, a wild ride and now I have to double check my spelling and worry that some private joke is too transparent and it became more about Weather and less about BobbiStorm. 

But I do love writing it and I do believe and have been told by readers that things I wrote made a difference while they were preparing for a hurricane or evacuating from one so that's good. I'm a firm believer in "make this place a better place than you found it" mentality. And, I've done a lot of research at the NHC Hurricane Center in it's wonderful Library over time on projects and written articles with others on both Hurricane History and Miami History. I've lectured at conventions, in classes and groups. It's amazing where it took me by just opening up my laptop in a pissy mood and by typing anything that was in my head on a very quiet day in the tropics in June.  So this was my first post.............enjoy, excuse any typos or lack of grammatical structure and yes I really do have a degree in English, with a lot of work on a Masters and another degree in International Relations now known as Geopolitics which is good as when I used to tell someone I had a degree in International Relations it usually led to some dirty joke. I've studied more Geography than you can imagine about every continent that exists as well as the Russian language which I used to be able to use, though I can still read it and studied Meteorology, Oceanography and Geology as it's all about Human Resources and Climate that sets up most wars over history. For example the very fertile flat lands of Hungary and parts of Ukraine called to one tribal invader after another until Kievan Rus aka Russia took control of a wide part of the region years ago. And the cold bitter winters of Russia did to Napolean what the shear from El Nino does to those healthy looking tropical waves. While the Ukrainian Women are beautiful, they wanted land where they could grow wheat and that's why for years it was called the Bread Basket of Europe. Cherries and wine are incredible in Hungary. 

Weather is everything.

Never Stop Chasing.

Never judge a Hurricane Season by June.

Three things I will stand by forever.

Enjoy the first blog below. Thanks for being here, if you are still reading ;)

For the Boaters....for the Surfers.......for the Parrot Heads.... this was my private, personal harbor I invited you all into. During a hurricane the old time sailors would put anchor in a Hurricane Hole, a Hurricane Harbor to ride out the storm and that's what I did while everyone argued on CaneTalk, still an awesome place filled with good info and no hype during the Hurricane Season and Jim, who can be a bit frustrating and negative at times has a great laugh, has been a good friend and well... I actually rented a house once on his advice that "except for the jalousies" it was a good house to rent and I did. It was a great house!

https://canetalk.com/ Comes alive with the regulars when there is actually something to talk about and in Raleigh I go out for drinks and hurricane talk with a friend Pat I made on CaneTalk a place I lived back when the way I live on Twitter now ;) 

JUNE 2004 ....turned into a very busy year haha... not funny, Florida's worst nightmare year but everyone was ready to "stick a fork in it" in June of 2004 on CaneTalk. Oh and Jim got a lot of action where he lives from Jeanne and Frances, wasn't so slow after all!

NEVER JUDGE A HURRICANE SEASON BY A SLOW JUNE..............

Monday, June 14, 2004

Why I Made This Harbor and other thoughts to think upon..

People who study hurricanes go a little crazy during the off season waiting for the hurricane season to start. Then, they go a little crazy during the early days of the season waiting for the REAL Hurricane Season to start. The weather gets hot and then it gets hotter. It gets muggy and humid and hurricane people in South Florida begin to talk statistically about how dry May is as they watch the sky waiting for thunderclouds to build out over the Everglades. During years like this.. May becomes June and they are still waiting, still still watching the sky to see if those signs of the rainy season will climb high and higher and form into large thunderstorms that rain down upon the land and announce the Rainy Season has begun.

Hurricane specialists go on the TV and talk about how dry May has been and how that has extended into June. And, they talk of signs and statistics and explanations about how the big ones always come when the rainy season is late. And, locals know that old timers always said a dry may brought a hurricane later in the season. But we know that every season is different and it only takes one.

And....all of us who love hurricanes for all the various reasons, who track and study and watch and stare, whether we get paid to watch the weather or not... get a little crazy.

Okay, we get A LOT crazy. How can we not? We have a hobby that has less peak days than some sports have playoff days. During some years the whole season can be summed up in two or three storms and in other years there are two or three hurricanes spinning throughout the basin.

We stay up until 2am just to hear the new cords.. to watch one more image come in... speak to one more friend online.

And, while waiting to go nuts like that... everyone begins to bite and snap and eachother over the smallest complaint on message boards all over the net. More arguing can be heard over whether a messy mass of moisture in the Gulf will or won't turn into the storms first hurricane.

People make bets.. even non-betters place their bets. Like people discussing an earthquake in LA the moment after the ground has shook a little.. made little circles in their coffee and trembled the ground under their feet... "I think that was a 3.0 in Santa Monica" "Nah, had to be 4.2 out in Palm Springs." "No way, was a 3.8 out by the Channel Islands" We are slightly related those of us who study hurricanes and earthquakes, distant cousins with the same blood running in our veins. We love the earth, we love to watch it boil into wild storms and we love watch it quiver and re-arrange itself, growing pains. We love to stare at it on a sat link.. water vapor.. visible, zoom in close or from a beautiful wild wide shot from high up above. We all have our favorites. Mine is the water vapor.. everyone who knows me knows that..and there are a lot of people who know me.

So.. while eveyone argues, bites their nails, goes blurry staring at tropical waves off Africa that won't quite form.. while everyone argues their way across the boards or fights with clerks at their local Publix about WHY they don't have their hurricane charts in and people have fever waiting for the season to really start..

I made myself and anyone who wants a Harbor.. a safe refuge to enjoy myself a bit... to laugh again, to smile.. to think .. to write.. to post a bit my thoughts on hurricanes and the 2004 Hurricane Season.

According to the dictionay... a harbor is a safe refuge. We all need safe refuges in life.. this is mine.. welcome to it.

Harbor: a place of security and comfort : REFUGE
Enjoy, feel safe.. and smile.. rest your bleary eyes. Shhh... the season hasn't really started yet."

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Twitter mostly weather and Instagram whatever