Hurricane Harbor: Breaking News! TD Two ..... Recon Finding Closed System but........Hurricane Season 2023 - ... Stay Tuned. 91L Been a Fighter, Fought Off Shear & Dry Air. Models Make a Tango Dip and Then Bounce Back Up Across FL or FL Straits. Will That Change? Stay Tuned.......

Tweet is correct. NHC writing advisories.

Will update

.....

Waiting on NHC to decide what they decide..

* * *

50% as Invest 91L pulled together last night.

Typical sheared GOM system but bones there...

Models interesting. More on them later.

Keeping this short this morning as it'll be updated later today after we see what Invest 91L does and what Recon finds when they go into the system. It's a short trip for them... I will say that. 91L has moved up into the N GOM as the GFS forecast yesterday and I mentioned yesterday morning in the blog. Many make fun of the NAM (a short range model) but when systems look as if they may form close to land and are struggling it often has a good handle on the weather the next few days.

GFS still starts to form a system in the GOM then heads somewhat South as it did yesterday, I'll give it to the GFS it showed the deep dip down towards the Yucatan. EURO this morning does the same thing with a little bit of variation in the two step involved. There is a lot of "juice" out there, it's a very wet environment as you can see below as the whole Tropical Atlantic is in blue as Lows hold sway, whereas High pressure is to the North. That's a general rule in Hurricane Season, when you have strong high pressure to the North often pressures to the South drop and you have the chance something develops.

Canadian does a sort of Tango Dip fast..

then dances up towards the Florida Straits...

...into Bahamas.

This is where you end up with this....

...strange model graphic above.

Tropical Tidbit grahic below.

June 1st... it's a crap shoot if this develops but it's on an upswing energy wise and it has hung in there despite crazy shear and fought off dry air, so it stands to reason this could become Arlene or at least a Tropical Depression. Note, IF it becomes a Tropical Depression it will be TD2 not TD1 because the NHC upgraded the old Winter No Name Storm of 2023 and designated it so it will be TD2 but the A storm IF it can manage to achieve Tropical Storm Status. If you can figure out that out, good for you!

Bottom line is really RAIN, hopefully not on your wedding day..... Note the long range rain forecast above shows up stronger in the GOM, over Florida then as the long range models below show it takes Invest 91L way out into the Atlantic out towards Africa. I'm sorry, it's a little ridiculoius but strange things can happen in June in an flip year from La Nina to El Nino, rules can be a bit fuzzy and the hall monitor has left the room for a long lunch.

Bottom line this morning is we are going to watch in real time. Recon is going to go in and we will get way better data from that than we have with the models that have been chasing it all over the Gulf of Mexico.

I'll update later. It's all up to 91L now and to be fair, it fought off the dry air.... fought off wind shear and usually the ones that can do that find a way to survive.

Otherwise.......welcome to the 2023 Hurricane Season. Hope you have been making lists, checking them twice and preparing your Hurricane Kit and escape route if you need to evacuate.