BREAKING 2 PM ........TS ARLENE FORMS FROM TD 2 On - SHEAR the Enemy of Tropical Systems Fighting It. Will Shear Be the Hero of 2023 As El Nino Builds ?? Historical Look at Camille. Never Forget the Tropical Wave Train... It's Only a Matter of Time Til One Develops.
You can see convection still sheared to the NW...
..of the center where the symbol is!
Discussion below tells the story...
Special discussion from the NHC explaining why they updated TD2 to Tropical Storm Arlene! Recon found Tropical Storm force winds on their last past into the storm and that makes it a Tropical Storm as forecast originally. My Aunt used to watch a show called "Queen for a Day" (If I have it right...) which never made sense to me as they took someone out of a messy, house filled with kids and dirty dishes and let them be a Queen for the day. Then, they had to go back to the messy house and feel even more overwhelmed. I digress, but just how my brain works. You want to help them... get em a MAID for a few months, trust me a maid solves feeling overwhelmed fast. When I lived in LA I took a job, just to pay for the maid! No more overwhelmed!!
So Arlene is forecast to be Queen of the Tropics for the DAY with a fast reckoning as strong shear overwhelms it as it tries desperately to get to Cuba. Kind of ironic as a few Cubans I've known personally jumped into a raft in shark infested waters to get to freedom and made it, many did not. Arlene is trying to see the Malecon in Havana. I'd like to see it as a tourist someday, maybe Tropical Storm Arlene will make it! Or at least remnants of Arlene will get there....
Does she run out of gas before she makes it?
Time will tell... keep watching.
Time will tell... keep watching.
Arlene has always been a fighter.
Fought off shear, dry air and got a name.
Hmnnn...
It's a seawall basically, with a view.
Had to... one of my favorite music videos :) though feels more like Miami than Havana, but I digress.
Though Arlene sounds like a friend of my Aunt.
More old school...
* * *
10 AM
Good morning everyone! Woke up early, looked at my phone and saw that TD 2 was still TD 2 and decided to go back to bed and get some extra beauty sleep! Sleep is good. No reason to rush off a blog post for a system that has now moved up it's speed to slip sliding away from meandering. Moving South at 5 MPH which is at least "movement" and with her now exposed center showing us her bones she's weaing a little tilted bonnet type of hat on satellite imagery showing us where her "weather" is and I'll add being on the East side it's closer to land, but seems to be staying neatly, politely off shore.
Weather all to the NE of the center.
Because shear blew it there.
As it slides South... it should miss Florida.
Nearness to Florida also amps up thunderstorms a bit.
This is the Rainy Season... more juice. Bigger storms.
Doesn't take much in Florida this time of year.
When I say "Florida" talking Orlando South.
Really Tampa South ...both sides of the coast.
Capital of Rainy Season is Miami.
Tropical large city built on edge of Everglades.
Taking time to remind you all that most of South Florida is the Everglades aka Low Country, swamp, marsh and the population is clustered within a narrow band on the SE coast from WPB to Miami and on the West coast from Marco Island up to Tampa. So when hearing stories about alligators, pythons and street flooding... remember it was a Swamp, it's still a Swamp and it's beautiful swamp but a bit crowded along that narrow strip of land where it's more hospitable to build. And build we did.......
My beautiful Miami on the edge of Biscayne Bay.
I stay here usually, by my youngest kids.
Downtown Miami today is alive and kicking, beautiful and busy along the bay, along the Miami River... again you get the idea population is crowded around the water views and the steady breeze off the Bay. Suburbs go out only so far until you hit the Everglades. It's been a long time since Miami itself (vs a suburb like Homestead) took a direct hit from a Hurricane and I hope their luck as the Magic City continues a long, long time.
The NHC has made it clear that unless TD 2 does something surprisingly spectacular it most likely will stay TD 2 vs the name of Arlene. IF that happens I'll update the blog with the breaking news. I'll add though that when you look at the Dvorak you can see it is trying to generate stronger convection in that one bubble of convection shown by the lighter colors in the darker colors. IF shear would relax (and it's not forecast to) that bubble of convection could move over the center.... if the center did not look so well organized you could ask if a new center could develop under that area of convection but again it's being blown away by the wind.
The wind.... shear.......an element that is forecast to be a contender this year for keeping this knocking down competitive Tropical Waves as El Nino increases it's grasp and the wind shear from the Pacific races across the Caribbean blowing the tops off of the Tropical Waves that are trying to develop. So when asked "how shear works" take TD 2 as a good example of what hopefully will mitigate strong tropical development in the Caribbean and some adjacent areas this hurricane season. Again.........that doesn't do anything to stop development out in the Atlantic or close in the Gulf of Mexico. An example of this is Hurricane Camille that "officially" started in the Caribbean weakly moving up into the Gulf of Mexico where the brakes came off and it developed into one of our most vicious, memorable hurricanes. In truth it was a westbound tropical wave chugging along unable to gain any traction until it found an area with weaker shear in a weak El Nino and "officially" formed and never looked back.
Formidable core...
Think of the Yucatan as a sort of wind break...
shearwise.....once out of the Carib.
In the GOM it intensified steadily, quickly.
An excellent article is linked below with regard to the history of Camille. When you are as BIG as Camille you don't have to say "Hurricane Camille" everyone in the hurricane world knows what you mean. Like Cher, Beyonce... one name says it all. Aside from the regular early radar images and the pics of the apartment complex before and after, this article shows something I've never seen before. It shows the original forecast tracks but Camille kept left of the track forecast, as did Georges in the Florida Keys that did not make that forecat turn by Puerto Rico.
Amazing.
Absolutely amazing.
A graphic on Camille I have never seen.
Lastly, never forget about those westbound Tropical Waves as they are alive and kicking early on and that's a problem. Usually we don't pay attention in early June much to those waves, but as the building El Nino is forecast to shut down the Caribbean due to Wind Shear ... the Wind Shear is not there yet and they are healthy waves that swam through warmer than normal water for this time of year and pressures in the Caribbean are currently low and welcoming....
That's a Wave Train, a rather healthy one.
Note how strong those waves are for June 2nd.
Then they tend to pull North a bit and are caught in the Trough.
NHC discusses this area with mucho convection ;)
Way more convection than TD 2 has...
Huge area of convection and lower pressures.
Low pressures are more conducive to development.
Nothing expected... but never forget those waves.
They seed development eventually.
Won't rule out TD 2 being Arlene for a NY minute.
But it's not looking promising right now.
But time will tell... as always
Link to Camille History at bottom..
Much Love
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Twitter mostly weather vs Instagram whatever.
Note Miami used to be a Tropical Island of sorts...
...a bit of a coastal ridge to the E of the Everglades.
It didn't always look the way it does now..
Miami in the late 1950s... no color.
Some big buildings they thought were skyscrapers.
Again compare and contrast with today...
Time will tell........
Very good article for anyone living in Hurricane Country near where Camille made landfall, anywhere in Hurricane Country or anyone who loves weather history... lots of maps!
posted by BobbiStorm @ 7:30 AM
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