Hurricane Harbor: Tropical Depression TWO Forms in the N GOM Near FL Panhandle - Tracks South ... Rare Track ... Stay Tuned to See if It Becomes Arlene. Currently No Watches or Warnings.

This is from KHOU one of the best...

... out fast with the graphics.

That's Southbound... a rare track.

Not sure what analog there would be.

But I digress.

A look at the Water Vapor shows that high pressure is pushing down on it making it unable to go North towards land. WV also shows that the heavy moisture that was associtated with it two days ago when we first began watching the area has been sheared away and dry air surrounds it in many directions. Not to say it won't up the ante for more thunderstorms over Florida, but it's possible that this is less of a concern that it was the other day. It's the rainy season, anything nearby makes the rain worse, flooding potential higher but currently there are no watches or warnings!

This is TD TWO.

The convection to the East shown below

...is part of a trough that has been sitting over Florida

and the Bahamas... and Cuba.

NOT TD TWO

I called Invest 91L puny earlier.

It's small.

Look how small it is compared to...

..the other convection everywhere.

Bright red on the right is NOT TD 2

So let's keep this in perspective.

Below is TD 2 moving 2 mph.

Meandering more than moving.

Solid little core there...

Center further from land than it looks.

Shear as always is still a factor.

So June 1st NHC is issuing advisories.

Well said by Brian McNoldy who if you're not following you should be. Nature can be funny sometimes indeed. Invest 91L has now been upgraded to Tropical Depression TWO (again because the first designated system of 2023 was back in the Winter and was upgraded after re-analysis by the NHC. First name would be Arlene should TDTWO get the coveted name of the first storm of the year.

Current models from Tropical Tidbits.

Dips down towards Cuba...

... bounces back towards Florida and the Bahamas.

As I said earlier today, a nice tango step.

That is IF it survives...

Shear and Dry Air will be a big problem.

Note the dry air in the GOM

For Newbies... White is the moisture.

Yellow/Blue are drier air...

While El Nino may greatly impact the numbers down the line of how many named storms form and how strong they will be, we aren't there yet so know we are OFFICIALLY, literally in Hurricane Season 2023! Now it's your turn to do what you need to do to protect your home, property and or figure out what you will do should Gert or Idalia come to call...