Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Friday, June 16, 2023

Updated 8PM Now 70% RED - Models Agree It Forms. Bret Is That You? 2 Likely Tracks.... Need it To Form For Better Modeling & Forecasts. Burns Out Fast or Goes the Distance? Stay Tuned...

8 PM

70% RED.. 

...should be Invest 92L any time now.

70% in the 7 day.
30% in the 2 day.

That's a juicy wave train... warmer water to the West.
One ready to come off soon.
Choo Choo.

Get your plan in action.
Bret in 2017 was a weak, mild storm.
Irma, Maria were not weak, mild storms.
Take this as your heads up.
Prepare now!

I'll update the blog tomorrow evening!


3 PM



Orange 50% in 7 days.
Why you ask are odds so high today?
EURO and GFS agree.
Remember it has not formed yet...
Where and when it forms tells the story.

Starting with words at the top and images at the bottom. If you are reading my blog I want to say "thank you" as we are all basically showing you the same information with some variation of thought process at this point in the game. Anyone that guarantees you a named storm and forecasts intensity and location this far out either has ESP or is a time traveler if you believe in those things. No one can be sure, though we can be fairly sure something will form and it'll move West under the huge high and then at some point there are two roads diverged in tropical waters and the path that the storm takes makes all the difference. Sometimes, unlike in the poem another road presents itself if a strong front barrels down and catches it or the high loosens it's grip on the Atlantic or the High suddenly lunges West pushing the storm closer to land. 

Currently models see a small system size wise.
Above is for 6/24
See the kink in the high.

Is this a Caribbean storm as almost every system that fomed in late June has been or is this some pioneering Bertha like system that formed in July and took aim on the SE Coast? In order to be a Fish Storm you generally need a robust storm, large in size that lumbers along and feels the weakness in the High easier and the need to move more towards the North as most storms do and recurves out into the Atlantic. Remember small storms spin up faster, can fall apart faster and sometimes avoid steering currents a larger storm could not ignore.

Currently those are the general forecasts with a spray of ensemble models that take it every which way they possibly can. 

The water is hot.
The high propels the wave/storm westbound for a while.
Shear is still far away though appears closer to the islands.
It's been consistent in keeping a small "center" like area with low convection currently.
SAL (Saharan Air Layer) does exist, usually small systems stay low to avoid it as much as possible.
Staying alive as the song goes, gives the storms we remember good dance steps.

3 analog storms above.
Elsa, weak but stayed alive, went far.
1933 storm only made it so far.
2017 Bret short ride in the tropics.

Actually named for a day or so.
Made Trinidad and faded away.

This shows you how difficult it is for an early wave to go the distance and yet some do and this one may do so indeed. I'm happy Cranky is back as ContentWxGuy with lots of content and in theory less crankiness. Either way his ability to convey with words and drawn arrows the flow, the positives and the negatives with a real time forecast is unique and treasured. Chick, one of my local favorites knows the Carolinas like most people know their favorite drink at Starbucks (Tall, 1 pump syrup, soy and yes I do want whipped cream) is a poet whether he knows it or not and knows the lay of the land in our neck of the woods and climo history of what will most likely happen.

Yes the point of genesis is where we begin....
..where we get more reliable forecasts.
Better model runs.
It's where it all starts.
Where and when....

Always look to the WV for validation of models.
It gives substance's my personal crystal ball.

Years back when we all tracked and traveled along with Charley as it traced the SW Florida coastline I was insistent where it could turn in and I was right. I remember at the time I was working at the City Library running the Reference Desk and my fellow librarians kept asking me "how did you do that" as it lunged inland seemingly without rhyme or reason a bit short to the South of where many expected it to and exactly where I showed it most likely would. It wasn't so much a lucky guess as much as practice over time with the water vapor loop going between models, current analysis and validating with the water vapor loop. 

You gotta have a closed, verified center and then get a look for where the convection is and if it's properly aligned vertically, if there's shear or a nearby Upper Level Low forming or a fast moving Shortwave or a front that is forecast to stay alive but gives it up just in time for Andrew to change course propelled by the building High and intensify fast over warmer waters.

This is not Andrew, it's not Bertha but it could be Bret.
Stay tuned.

Currently my IFs are on size as most models show a small system, tightly wound trying to sneak along and stay alive in late June in the middle of the tropical Atlantic. That's not an easy trick and those that do are sometimes contenders to do real trouble down the road when steering curents change or they simply fade away a mere analog for the next June system that forms in the future. Warm water feeds a storm but shear will rip it apart.... 

Thanks for reading.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Twitter mostly weather and Instagram weather and whatever.

Does Bret form and go tthe distance?
Or quietly fade away from shear near Carib?

Or is this just a tease and nothing is as it seems?

Stay tuned....


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