Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, August 25, 2021

Invest 99L Forms Could be a Problem for the UPPER GOM Sabine River to Mississippi (Moving Target Model Wise) Does Ida Form in Caribbean or in the Atlantic? This Weekend We Could Have Tropical Trouble.


This is our area of concern this morning.
But there are 3 Invests out there remember that.
Almost a full house.
Close enough.
All potential currently.
We are in a period of change in the tropics.
Note the Mimic below

We have two Invests going staying low and one going high. Feels a bit like a carnival of convection but it's more slow heat up of the deep tropics that could create trouble in the Gulf of Mexico. The wave in the Caribbean concerns me more than the others immediately as it sneakily stayed very low crawling across the rim of South America, biding it's time and gathering convection to avoid the Upper Level Low that was dogging it and as timing is everything it's all about where and when it begins to pull North close to the Yucatan. Exactly where would that be and exactly how strong would it be when it makes that turn. Because this morning the models pulled to the right (East) and took aim on the Upper GOM coastline and away from the Tex Mex region. We have miles to go before we sleep with the models but today everywhere from Texas to Mississippi needs to watch this system now at 80%. Models even take it towards Nola now vs the borderlands.

Again this is based on models not what is actually happening so remember that, but we are now looking at the Upper Gulf of Mexico not the Tex Mex border. Perhaps it wants to make a beeline for iCyclone's hurricane cottage he's using as his base for the hurricane season. ??? Time will tell but for now nothingis off the table and the concern for a very strong hurricane is there according to some of the better models! That is the main point here this morning!! The  water in the Gulf is hot, hot, hot!

This needs to be watched, but I said it needed to be watched yesterday as I never believe early models,  because everything is in flux and flows in tandem every twist and turn in the atmosphere interacts with other factors and the models move over time honing in on the ultimate travel destination. 

What can you do about it if you live anywhere along that part of the Upper Gulf of Mexico coastline? You can continue preparing and updating your hurricane kit, plans and keep watching. We don't know if this is Ida or Julian as yet, but with the new model runs and the healthy look (convection wise) of this new Invest ups the ante for the NHC to make a potential tropical cyclone should they want to do so.

The system has not wrapped yet but when it does it could become a dangerous hurricane. IF and when the deep moisture that it's carrying wraps around the center then well let's put it this way... you know when you were in school and had to do a jumping contest in Phys Ed and people would take a deep breath, back up and then run fast so they could jump higher? This is kind of like that. Weak systems wander West and strong hurricanes pull further North at the EDGE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE. So that said the High Pressure carefully for the next few days as it evolves and rearranges it's position and that will mark the spot that this storm takes.

these grids are up on Spaghetti Models. is what he uses.
So you might wanna use it too!

Invests 97 and 98 are currently on the back burner forecasting wise here. Will they be beautiful spinners out in the middle of the Atlantic or will one of them break from the pack and head West at a later date? I do think one of them is a late blooming sort of trouble maker but currently all eyes are on Invest 99L.

I'll update later today if the NHC blinks and changes the statistics, but for now we are watching Invest 97L carefully.

Nuff said.

Stay safe, stay happy and keep watching for any updates from the NHC that I will add in here in real time. Dance in the kitchen til the morning light..... Louisiana Saturday Night... best song this morning. 


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