Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, August 26, 2021

UPDATED! #TD 9 NHC Cone - 99L Houston to FL Panhandle All Watching - Which Road Will It Take? Which City Gets Landfall? How Many Landfalls? The Answer Is Blowing in the Wind. How Strong Is the Western Edge of the High?? That May Tell the Story. How Strong it Becomes Also Tells the Story. Stay Tuned for a Cone from the NHC

As promised earlier in the blog.
TD9 Forms in the East Caribbean.
Louisiana in Cone.
How much interaction with Cuba?
Keep reading my concerns... thank you!


30 minutes after I press post........
... NHC says they will upgrade to TD9
Posting a Cone at 11 AM.
Nola will be in the Cone.
But what are the other possibilities?
How wide will the cone be?
Stay tuned. 
New post at 11 with DATA and facts.
Please read the discussion below.
It's important to udnerstanding what will be IDA
A possibly dangerous Major Hurricane.

keep reading !

Has this been the year of the Triangle of what?
Back to the triangle of Xs.
Soon 99L will get a name.
What it's fame will be is down the road.
Who knows? 
Which road will it take?

A few things I want to point out with regard to the satellite image above. First off there is still some shear so the majority of the convection OVER JAMAICA currently is West of where the center is trying to form.  The odd "not really just an upper level low" over Florida is STILL THERE which bugs me. It is not moving as fast as many models and meteorologists said it would.  97L up in the Atlantic has high chances of forming, higher than the Invest taking up the rear riding low. 98L is forecast so far to be a fish storm that takes off after 97L but I do think it will take the more Southern end of the formation zone and that's going against most of the models. It's a three ring circus and until Invests actually form a true center models are going to flip flop and miss things which end up becoming surprises. So while what I think today it's very possible I may thiink something else tomorrow as weather is fluid ... especially before a true center has formed. 

As for our Invest of the Hour... 99L screams "Pay attention to me" and we are doing that. But is the real danger zone the Sabine River between Texas and Louisiana or will the eventual five day cone be closer to iCyclone's hurricane cottage roost and will the chickens come home to roost in this case? It's possible the Invest that had the end game locked in on the TexMex area end up with the eventual 5 Day Cone from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle and then where the cone will zoom in on for the final cone is still a big question.  It's easy for me to scream New Orleans or Mobile but it could split the difference and come in between there in Mississippi.

It could do a lot of things.

Earthnull currently shows a center forming.
Can recon find it this morning?
Follow the bend in the isobars...
You can see this tracking towards West Cuba.
Then Nola...
... or Mississippi.
Currently being the key word here

Factors to watch:
1. What happens in the EPAC currently impacts the area where 99L is currently.
2. What does that "not just an ULL" do and where does it go and how fast does it move? 
3. Does 99L align veritically and stack up or does it have a mess of convection to the West.
4. Shear? How much shear and where - because currently it's rain is sheared to the right by Jamaica.
5. How much interaction with Cuba? See number 4 above because weather could impact Havana.
6. Does it do Rapid Intensification when the drama in the EPAC is over and it's further North?
7. How and where does it track in relation to the hottest pockets of bath water in the GOM?

These are the 7 deadly sins of tropical meteorology forecasting especially for a hurricane trying to form and in the early stages down in the Caribbean aiming for the Yucatan. Sometimes they explode like Wilma did and the models miss the Rapid Intensification and other times they become wobbly the way Michael did and people online argue and bicker as to how strong it could be and how it looks like crap until suddenly it doesn't look like crap.

My problem with the discussion on the High being huge preliminarily is that it was before the Upper Level Low that has another component in it at the surface has moistened up the Western edge of the High and it's weakening in a bad location.  The GFS model nails the mini fujiwara of the Epac weak systems and also brings it (or it's weather mass) closer to Western Cuba and West of Key West and then pulls it North into the Gulf of Mexico over very warm water. 

Bottom line is the end game may be set in stone in ways but the path to get there may have multiple options as it may pull more to the North then push back more to the NW or it could stall out or move ridiculously slow somewhere. A lot of options because it has not formed yet and where it forms and how good that center is (aligned vertically) will tell the real story down the road. You know the way you are doing a road trip and WAZE takes you on a detour to your final destination.

So everyone from Houston to Florida needs to keep their eye on this one.
Easy to name a city in Louisiana but that would be counting my chickens before they hatch.

Two things regarding the image above. 

Note the "hurricane symbol" up in the Gulf of Mexico currently near ...hmnn Tampa ... tha's our "not just an upper level low" and note how much moisture is in what was previously a very strong high pressure ridge (weakening the Western edge of the High) and note the veritical signature of that "hurricane symbol" is similar to how 99L maybe Ida soon looks currently and note how it is SLAMMING JAMAICA with it's convection whereas the center is said to be further West. Which is it? Nail that center down! And again 99L has a caboose and is looking way too much like Matthew when it came together.

Regarding football and hurricane chasing and forecasting is it is extemely important to be fluid like a good quarterback that has the ability to scramble, evaluate the situation and find a receiver down the field vs being the one who drops back and has a game plan in mind and while waiting for the receiver he chose to throw to tries to get free he gets sacked and slammed to the ground hard.  Models are like receivers they have various solutions and insist you can "throw the ball to me now" then they suddenly change and rearange in real time and if you chase the models you often end up chasing your tail in a circle.  The GFS this year has been spot on way too often to be ignored but they have for years yielded to the EURO in the way the QB has a favored receiveer but if the QB is not reading what is going on around him at the line and trying to reach that one favored receiver he misses opportunities to throw the ball down field to a receiver who is open but ignored. It's important to be fluid, especially in the beginning before development begins and a center has really formed, developed and opened up sacking vertically and being able to run with the ball. Otherwise you insist Grace will do Cuba not Jamaica and Henri will do Hispaniola vs Cuba and as good as the NHC did with Elsa they have spent too much time (in my opinion) worrying on which model is locked in and not being fluid and ignoring the weather mass has to be watched especially when there are mutliple centers. Consistency is VERY IMPORTANT but it's also consistent that you sometimes have to go wide in your options and make the public very aware that the track could change and it's extremely possible Henri like the weather may impact people very far from the center of the cone. Chasers focus on the center but everyone else needs to pay attention to the shape of the storm, where it's convection is and what could go wrong with the forecast in real time!

When there is one incredibly aliigned center and all the weather has wrapped it's a whole different ballgame.

It's been years since Wilma did RI that wasn't seen coming while they were perfecting the game plan down the road to get into the endzone and years since Camille that had a track this one could try and trace; many try and trace Camille but they are not really Camille. As I wrote years ago hurricanes are like Cabbage Patch Dolls they look similar but each is unique in it's own way. 

I'll update when the NHC upgrades (there is a plane on the way now... going in and probably staying there as much as possible all day) because many models take this up towards a Cat 3 Major Hurricane moving towards landfall somewhere from Houston to the Florida Panhandle in the short term vs the long term so expect some sort of Cone out of the NHC sooner rather than later be it a Potential Cyclone forming or a TD or they find Ida. Stay tuned.

Expecting a Cone to come out from the NHC later today.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Ps True story. My ex-husband used to be pen pals with Bob Dylan who wrote to him under his real name not his stage name. His whole life was really a journey looking for which road to walk and he walked into 770 (home of Chabad in Crown Heights) and hung out there at times hiding in the mess of black and white suits and beards and faces.  My ex being a theater person before becoming a Rabbi and into music was a natural person for him to talk to about life. And he wrote in cryptic ways and phrases as to what road he might take next. He would have made a great storm chaser if you ask me. Cryptically, quietly watching the wind for the answer and to know which road to take to find the storm.

I also dislike when they devlep the caboose structure that Matthew and a few storms after Matt developed and they tended to be strong hurricanes.


At 7:24 AM, Blogger Matt said...

It shall do what it will no matter how much info is put into the computer. You are correct about the gfs Bobbi storm wise over water. It has been nailing it. On land?eh.


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