Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, August 24, 2021

3 Areas Being Monitored for Development in the Tropics. Invest 97L 98L & Carib Wave Could Impact Texas! Where Does Ida Develop and Then Julian?

This is forecast for the short term.
Red 70% Atlantic system should be Ida.
It's coming on strong and ready to go for the gold!


Actually looks as if it is nervously watching the ULL.
Eastern Carib Wave South of the ULL.
Slow moving Wave off Africa could be a problem...
...but not til way down the line.
Waves that don't develop fast can come back and haunt you!
Texans need to be totally prepared with this set up.
A very strong High controls the movement of storms.

Blogger and YouTube has a strange relationship. Sometimes it shows the video and other times not so I put both the link as well as their embedded video. I made this earlier Tuesday afternoon to show how one huge, swirling Upper Level Low can take up so much oceanic real estate and impact a near by tropical wave.  In the short term the wave in the Eastern Caribbean that models take towards Texas as a named system is fighting off the shear from the large Upper Level Low.  At the same time while ULLs can kill a stytem they can also ventilate them helping them to explode in intensity; understanding them is key to understanding this wild card features that increasingly of late show up everywhere.  

The wave at the bottom almost mirrors the ULL above it.
Definitely slowing down it's progress currently.

He's amazing.
Trust me he can talk longer than I can write ;) You can follow him on YouTube any time of the day when you have the time. I complained earlier today about mets on YouTube giving hyped up scary forecasts weeks out that are highly unreliable. Often a long term forecast (10 days to 2 weeks) can pinpoint areas that may have tropical development, yet note most jumped on Henri as a huge storm in the Atlantic saying that was where Grace would be far out past the forecast cone. No, they were wrong and that did not happen, however another system formed there while Grace continued on westbound all the way to Mexico and into the Pacific where she was reborn as Marty.  I do love to watch Mike on YouTube when I don't have time to catch him live in the morning. I also love seeing what Thor puts together regarding weather, volcanoes or solar activity as he has an amazing mind and adds a touch of entertaining to the mix. My point is when looking for long range forecasting on YouTube do so carefully and over time you will see who you can trust or not.  Jim Williams of HurricaneCity fame is not a professional met but a meteorologist in the pure form of a student of meteorology and he knows more about hurricanes than many mets with degrees I have seen spout forth opinons based on soley NHC discussion and actually get the details wrong. If you don't know geography and CLIMO you are missing the biggest pieces of the puzzle because it is not just about watching a model tell you Ida will run away with Julian and transport to a beach in Tahiti and live happily ever after. 

So a good knowledge of HISTORY plus GEOGRAPHY with a little bit of OCEANOGRAPHY helps when doing meteorology which is mostly math but filled with details and the devil is always in the details.

Mike, my buddy, tweeted this image on Twitter.
Mike is awesome.

Many models show this Caribbean wave getting into the Gulf of Mexico (depending on the strength of the High and how far West it's boundary is) and they also show it becoming a HUGE, LARGE MESSY storm carrying tons of convection that could be far from it's center. Think Henri except this would be more a tropical large wet mess vs the odd look of Henri. 

That's it! Don't freak out over models that show what will happen on September 3rd when the forecast for the next few days is often messed up. Models did not see Henri forming. Hmnnn...  Models didn't see the huge epic, historical high amount of rain in Tennessee that caused a horrific flash flood killing way too many people.  No I do not want to talk about the twin infants lost in the flood as their father tried to save them. Flash floods are the most devastating weather events as they are hard to forecast and happen in a FLASH and suddenly whoosh everything is gone, gone, gone.

Hurricanes can be prepared for so it's up to you to do your job and prepare. You can often evacuate after boarding up your house and hoping and praying it's there when you come back; yet you can take what you need unlike the lost photos and memories and baby clothes of the twin babies lost. Flash floods are horrible and yet the forecast missed it and the question is why? The question is why models didn't see Henri forming. The question is why models missed Grace going towards Jamaica and why they missed Fred doing the length of Cuba before turning North way later than most models originally forecast. Models are incredible to have but often they are trashy and a good forecaster has to know when to ignore them vs putting up long term maps showing Charleston or Houston being wiped off the map. You got to know who to trust and who to lose and when to hold them and when to walk away and sometimes run for your life from a Hurricane Katrina type storm.

Caribbean Wave needs to be monitored unless the Upper Level Low monitors it so much it eats it up and spits it out for dinner. The problem is when Upper Level Lows get too big for their britches they can sometimes swallow up too much convection that can sometimes work it's way down to the surface and become a named storm on it's own. Imelda was a short lived storm that wreaked devastation in Texas with an incredible amount of rain and flooding that came from an Upper Level Low that worked it's way down to the surface as I said it was doing on my blog and on Twitter.  They can be real wild cards in multiple ways.

Have a great evening. 
Give money to reliable charities to help those in need of our recent Natural Disasters with multiple flooding events over the past week. Pray for the family of those who died that they somehow find a way to go on and start over. Do what you can do to prepare for a hurricane and/or make an escape plan to leave town in case your city is threatened by a hurricane strong enough that you do not wish to deal with it nor the aftermath without power. 

Stay tuned.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
I'd play The Gambler but I know y'all know the words to that without me showing a video!
Another classic below.........



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