Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Friday, September 18, 2020

WILFRED FORMS FROM 98L Leaving TD 22 Set to be The 1st Greek Named Tropical Storm of 2020 in the GOM.. Another Messy Set Up Close In. Teddy in the Atlantic Going North Towards Canada and Maybe Maine But Keep Watching Things Often Change. Invest 90L Red Again in the East Atlantic. What Lessons Did We Learn From Sally?

That's the very active 2020 Atlantic Basin.
Wilfred formed from 98L in the East Atlantic.
That means TD 22 forecast to become a TS ... 
... .would be our 1st Greek Name storm.

So let's look at Wilfred.

NHC keeps it weak for now.
As Mike says they always start off conservative.
(Mike meaning Spaghetti Models)
That looks problematic.
But theory is it would follow Teddy's lead.
Let's see what happens in real time.

As for TD22 the Cone is still Round.
Again coming close to the coast....
...tracing it finally caught in a stronger steering current NE.
The forecast worries me a bit... it's has intangibles.
You know like Sally... 
Til that front grabs it (sooner vs later?)
Changes can happen in the forecast.
Watch in real time.
Learn from Sally.

TD22 still on a leash to Feisty Sally.
The NHC did not bring it back but...'s a strong feature.
And TD22 looks as if it should have a name by now.
but we will wait... it's just a bull in a China Shop.
Ya know..
I'll be back later.

Looping loops and cooking for my holiday.
Full update later today.
I'll be offline Saturday and Sunday.
So follow Mike..
for all your tropical needs... well as of course the NHC!

* * *
From 9 AM below.
Please keep reading and note there's 
an editorial of sorts looking back at Sally.
And what we need to learn more about.

 At the top is info on TD 22 set to be Wilfred and Invest 98L now back red again and TEDDY.

At the bottom by the PS are my thoughts on what we need to take away and learn from Hurricane Sally the way we should have learned it from Florence or Floyd, things chagne and they can change fast and neither models nor cones are set in stone days out because bottom line is hurricanes can be fickle especially this time of year when we move towards fronts being the important thing to watch vs the Bermuda High earlier in the year and again soon we will need to watch the Caribbean. 

The whole wide Atlantic Basin from Zoom Earth.
Zoomable... tracks, data, all in one place.
Love it.
Below is the Iconic NHC Main Page.
The 3 systems close in ... 
..Sally is an EX but still causing trouble!

Close in we have these 3 players.
Sally where the NHC pulled the plug.
But now up near Virginia and Mid Atlantic.
Didn't rain itself out yesterday on the Carolinas.
Enhanced by a fuel line down to TD22
TD22 forecast to be Wilfred.
and then we have TEDDY.
Now 130 MPH strong.

That's one huge massive eye.
From far away.
If I was in PR I'd be worry...
.... I trust it's turning but that's scary to see.

Cone is still touching Maine.
But more a Canadian Maritimes issue.
Keep it off the East Coast.. I know.

Now back to TD 22 looking like Wilfred to me.
Also it's further into the GOM...
...then I think they expected.
Every model has a different solution.
NHC basically drew a circle.

Models show Wilfred tracing the coastline.
Then is it teasing a landfall or....
...tricking us and pulling a Sally?
More on that below in my thoughts on Sally.

Lastly there is an Invests 98L that pulses up and down.
The NHC raised it to 90%...
...walked it back down.
Models showed them nothing happens.
Then the  models flip flopped and...
..98L put on a show on satelite imagery.
The NHC ramped up their changes again.
Back to red and ready to go...
Where will it go?
In theory it follows Teddy...

8 AM Friday NHC Main Page

I'm not a fan of theory this season.
I'm a fan of facts vs long range models.
It's far away we can worry on it another day.
Not even talking on the North bound E ATL systems.

So the question mark? 
The real concern is our close in Wilfred.
That popped up as I pointed it out..
..and knew it would
But where does it go?
All depends on fronts.

From Spaghetti Models.
The models show scribble scrabble.

Really not easy being the NHC.
Kind of life in 2020...
...we thought we could forecast 7 days out. 
We thought we were done with the Plague.

2020 is reality slapping us in the face.
So we need to stay on guard.
Take it day by day, cone by cone.
Prepare for the worst, pray for the best.
Give charity to those who need from Laura and Sally.

Below are my thoughts on Sally.
And why we didn't learn more from Florence?
Or why we didn't learn more from Floyd earlier?
Why the media becomes a problem not a hero.
Why do people see one Cone and keep it in their mind.
Go to sleep and find out it missed 2 states...
.... intensified fast and they wake up to a srong Cat 2.
Moving 2 MPH carrying ships...
.... wood and poles into their homes

I'll update later today with models
And new advisories at the top.
Have a good weekend.
For me I'll be busy with the Jewish New Year.
Mostly home without guests because 2020.
But lots of sweet food and prayers for people I love.
And centering myself a bit-thinking on life a bit.

Much love.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
Twitter mostly weather Instagram whatever..

Thoughts to think on ...and how can we correct this situation so that it doesn't keep repeating.

They had 29 Inches of rain in Orange Shores, Alabama more than they expected. People there didn't expect that much rain and weather and people left boats docked where they are usually are okay in a weak Category 1 hurricane as it was hours before it ramped up to a strong Cat 2 that slammed their region vs Louisiana and Mississippi as the media advertised for days before the turn to the right, to the right and the ships and various marine products associated with beautiful docks filled with beautiful sailboats slammed into homes and businesses after riding a wild surf, bobbing about in a hurricane wind on a rolling tide and as Sally made landfall at high tide it was even worse and when the water began to settle down the ships were dropped onto lawns, pools and dockside businesses. That's what a hurricane of any intensity moving at 2 MPH forward speed will do as people in North Carolina know only too well.  

Yes, the NHC did move the Cone and yes late at night they upped the intensity way beyond forecast intensity and at 1 AM they did it again but people actually preparing for the storm and getting ready to evacuate a day before or hunker down did not prepare in a way that normally they might have had it been a Category 3 out in the Gulf of Mexico churning away vs a tropical storm struggling to find it's groove, becoming a hruricane and it's hard to discern center finally popped out as an eye in the same way this system popped up seemingly out of nowhere close in as a home grown invest that slammed Miami with a long day of rain and flooded the Florida Keys as a minimal Tropical Storm without early model support.  Sally was a problem from day one and when I saw that water vapor loop and the flow on the MIMIC I knew we would have a messy problem before the first yellow circle.

The problem of perception is a huge problem for people trying to convey the dangers of a weak tropical storm or hurricane that can and often does intensify as it comes on shore towards landfall moving slowly over warm water in the cradle of the Gulf of Mexico where storms often slide around a bit as seen currently in the long term forecast charts for TD22 soon to be Wilfred forecast to trace the Texas coastline and possible aim for Louisiana or Mississippi dependong on long term steering currents. Time will tell what Wilfred will do but we know what Laura and Sally did and in 2020 when the infrastrucure is so huge even in small cities the power outages are large and it takes a long time to put it all back together again. Miami learned that after a weak Katrina hit us and took out power out for close to two weeks, then Wilma did it again... most of October we had no power in parts of Miami but not from a Major Hurricane.

Yes, the director of the NHC says, as many do, always prepare for a category stronger than what is forecast but that's easier said than done. Some over prepare and others seem unaware a close in storm can shift two states to the East and ramp up 20 MPH in 2 hours in the middle of the night when they were trying to get some sleep before it made landfall at sunrise as was the general preception was by many who were now in the path of landfalling category 2 hurricane close to category 3 moving slower than a fast turtle could walk.

We need to do better at forecasting intensity and the media needs to stop hyping every early cone as if it's set in stone and highlighting sexy, well known cities such as New Orleans and Miami because cones change and Homestead can get Hurricane Andrew directly and Gulf Shores can get Sally after the media hyped New Orleans and the second coming of Katrina and talking incessantly on possible levee failures and playing up the Covid angle when they should have make the public aware that a storm still trying to develop and pull together close in moving slowly in weak steering currents can go anywhere near or in the Cone and things change fast and as much as we think we know so much about Hurricanes Forecasting there is so much more we need to learn and we learn more with each storm or problematic forecast for a storm that refused to follow the forecast the way Sally and Hurricane Georges did years earlier. 

Hurricanes happen and they don't always follow the forecast and even in a time of instant communication there is often so much misinformation. And, models are not better than humans they help humans make a forecast and they change as fast as the storm does when it pulls to the right instead of the left and then the models try to catch up as do the forecasters. Stop talking on geting a 7 Day Cone Package out and let's try to get the 3 Day Cone down a bit better and find a way of explaijning how one storm will leave a legacy of flooding you can't imagine and another like Andrew is so dry and moving fast it hits land like a buzzsaw or a Tropical Twister. 

I'll update the blog this afternoon with new model data, thoughts and any changes in the Cone or status of any Invests trying once again to get the attention of the NHC for a name. Note a man died in Hurricane Sally and there is trouble in Virgina Beach as I type this as the remnants are still producing heavy weather and flooding issues.  A lot we don't know still even though we know much more than we did in 1900.  And yes I purposely used the term "so much" because there is "so much" we need to learn to get better and warning people to prepare for the fickle nature of hurricanes.


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