Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, September 26, 2018

Kirk Energized... Beamed Back to Life Just Before the Islands. Watches and Warnings Up. Leslie Want's Her Chance Again Too! Stay Tuned. OBX Wild Card or a Gremlin?

The timeline of Kirk's Resurrection is shown below.

Officially a Tropical Storm Again.

That was late last night above.
Solid core of convection.
Nicely centered.
Twisting in motion across the ocean.

Trying to catch up on the tropics and everything else going on last night wasn't easy. I went online to find what looked like a well developed TD or TS that had less chances than the system in the middle of the Atlantic with better odds which seemed odd.. Kirk or XKirk was all the rage last night discussion wise as meteorologists compared notes on ASCAT passes and wind barbs and convection and made great cases for an upgrade as Kirk nears the Islands and in theory the Islands need to be warned. Oh ... and there were a lot of jokes being made as everyone seems to enjoy having the name Kirk around to use. According to the official forecast from the NHC Kirk will stay on the list as they have upgraded it and announced it most likely won't last much longer than to warn the islands. Time will tell on that one and I think Kirk is going to stay on Island Time as in doing things his own way as he has so far since he rolled off of Africa.

NRL imagery showed a well defined Tropical Storm.
Winds too strong to be a Tropical Depression.
Map grid up in place.


Good discussion from Morales.

I posted the picture below.
If that's wasn't a Tropical Storm.
It was the best looking tropical wave I'd ever seen.

You probably missed the 2 AM.....
It was upgraded to 90%
It was obvious where this was going.

And then at 5 AM
The NHC officially weighed in.
Kirk Again.

Watches and warnings up now.

(In theory all is right with the world again now)

The cone is similar to it's original cone.

Tone from the NHC is the same as well.
As in "don't expect much here"

In truth they are not really sure. The wind speed is there, it's hard to find the exact location of the center according to the NHC so they are sending in recon (logical) and we will keep watching it on satellite imagery. Mets will get some cat naps today to catch up on their sleep from watching the drama late last night.  NHC has it "post tropical" or a remnant low in 96 hours. There are some that feel it has a chance to be stronger than the suggested 50 MPH storm (which is only 5 more mph than it is currently) and it could linger around in some form or another and become a problem again later. Time will tell.

Reality has been that Kirk came off Africa with an impressively large mass of convection and a spin as well as some banding features. There were great expectations. It was supposed to plod along and be too close to the feature to it's North that should have finished it off, however it took off like a rocket ship (seriously) West bound on the South side of the forecast cone outrunning the feature that should have wiped it out and is still a contender to bring mischief to the Caribbean. It seems to have a desire to stay alive or more so have found ways to stay alive. Movement that fast hurt it as much as any "dry air" that the NHC wrote about in their discussion as a system moving that fast often out runs itself, leaving part of it behind and ending up not being properly stacked. I'd venture to say that it is closed off enough now for them to do what they did and hoist watches and warnings for the islands. It will either tighten up or continue along containing Tropical Storm force conditions over a large area. The models that matter have never loved it but it's consistently shown up and is back again. For how long remains the question.

Close up. 


Below you see the larger thumbprint.
The question as to what is going on remains.

But this is what it looks like today shown below.
One large strong blob of convection at it's center.
Amidst a larger pocket of convection around it.
Looking very similar to how it looked originally.

It's a system that bears watching carefully.

As for Leslie it too wants a second chance.

90% is basically a coming attraction.
It is coming soon back to life.

Gale force winds there.
Murky circulation.
Seems the signature currently for systems.
Models keep it around a while.
Models get odd with it.
Until we know what it does...
...we won't know.
Systems like this are less predictable.
Than your average westbound wave.

Actually X Leslie makes Kirk look good.

Speaking of unpredictable.
The gremlin off the Carolina coast is still there.
Hovering off shore.
Small area...
...kicking up again today a bit.
Most of the weather is off shore.

Strong weather to it's East.
Kind of an unknown.
An unknown with 20% chances.
NHC is tired of it... my opinion.
It looked stronger the other day.
Yet they did not upgrade.
Imagine if the weather was left sided..
..maybe they might have.
Recon went in while I was offline.
They didn't find anything worth upgrading.

These are the players.
98L off of OBX
XKIRK back to being Kirk again.
Leslie about to get her name back.

A tropical wave behind Kirk.
Another about to come off of Africa.
We are moving towards the end of the CV season.
I am still expecting a system to form in the West Carib.
Or West Carib near GOM.
What lights the wick on this system is the question.
IF Kirk falls totally apart...
...sputters about and lingers maybe.
The system behind maybe.
There are things here that have yet to play their hand.
Kirk has always been straight forward.
In truth... large, moving west steadily. 
It's an interesting question if that changes.
Where's Dr. Spock when you need him?

I had a really nice holiday, rested probably too much as I could barely sleep last night. Good food, good conversation and weather cool enough to wear leggings and breathe cooler fresh air ...however it's warming up fast today. I'll be traveling today and will update later in the afternoon.... after we know more hard data on Kirk. Taking a scenic route back to North Carolina from Maryland. I had thought on going to the Outer Banks but not sure it's worth it today if 98L doesn't want to play or if the surf and wind isn't there. Lot's of nice places to go near where I am and on the way back so playing it by ear. Somewhere between here and there I'll figure that out. As for Kirk...stay tuned. As for Leslie... hard to get excited about her though she may put on a pretty show spinning in the Atlantic.

Big grid from

Apparently Leslie is going to do figure 8s.
That will pretty much shut down that region.
But the region we are watching.... the Carib and GOM.
Oh and Kirk.
The wonderful adventures of Capt Kirk.

Always has to be so dramatic....

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter.

Ps... Just want to add here. Think there's a bit of Bandit here with Kirk.
Either way he's Westbound and down.
Like an 18 wheeler rolling 

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