Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, June 27, 2017

Sneaky African Wave With Yellow Circle as Another Nears South America. A Look Back at Hurricane Audrey and the Rule Breaking Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2017

Yes we are starting off with Africa this morning.

Going to try and keep today's post short and sweet, on the money as they say. There is a yellow circle in the far distant Atlantic off the coast of Africa again in June. This cannot be ignored and not for the reason you would normally think but solely for the reason that it is merely there. There shouldn't be yellow circles off of Africa in normal years in June, but there hasn't been anything normal about 2017 since Arlene formed in the Atlantic in April. And note I said "the Atlantic" vs some swirl in the Gulf of Mexico or off the coast of Florida but out in the Atlantic. Something to think on and discuss in depth after the season is over, however the pattern for an early Atlantic Hurricane Season was set back in April.

So let's look at Africa.
Several waves can be seen.
None dynamic but it's June.
June 2017

And the African Waves have been sneaky this year.
They are low this time of year.
That's within the framework of Climo.
Hurricane History since time began.

Early season waves tend to come off Africa at a lower latitude and that low ride hurts them as they have to lift a bit for them to really spin up as too close to the Equator you run into the dead zone for tropical formation. Bret was a rare spinner that low down close to the no go zone, however will more follow Bret this year that is the question. It's a two step dance, one part is staying away from the high dry air that sucks the energy out of fledgling tropical systems. On the other hand they can't go too far South or they lose their mojo. There's a thin line for development and it helps to have a wave with a lot of potential and not sure this wave has all that much potential.  SAL loop.

A while back a beautiful wave came off of Africa, but it was ignored. No yellow circle and yet it's on it's way to Trinidad and Tobago. You can see this wave flaring up on satellite imagery below. Nice little compact, red circle in a pocket of moisture. Riding low as another wave comes off of Africa. And note there are numerous waves coming off of Africa as the ITCZ has stayed moist this year South of the region where SAL dominates in June and July. You can also see a front draped across the Northern part of the Sunshine State. Many have said this morning in NY feels like September not June. Get over it, it's an illusion and summer heat will return soon. But it's interesting to watch as the season unfolds as this season's tropical waves don't always follow the rules.

You can see this low riding wave below.

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

Looks like a bright, white mole moving West on the loop above.
You can also see a small cyclone named Dora in the Epac.
Small, quick lived fast moving Dora.

Hurricane Dora formed an eye.
And the eye opened up wide.
Dora moved West towards cooler water.
No shear but maybe the eye was too big?
Seriously it's now been downgraded.
Maybe it's the name.
Dora 2011 had a huge eye too.
However 2011 Dora was a strong, big Hurricane.
Both had huge eyes.
25 to 30 miles wide in 2017

While June is usually a good deal for cruises in the Caribbean it's usually unfriendly for tropical systems as the pieces of the puzzle fall into place a bit later in the season. You can see how unfriendly it is and yet we have a yellow circle with 20% chances in the 5 day and that's interesting. Interesting for how it may relate to later in July and August before we even get to Remember September. 

Look at all those waves swimming West.
Moisture in the Caribbean in June.
Fronts dangling across Florida.
Warm waters in the GOM and the Bahamas.
Epac squeezed out a small storm nothing more.
The signs point for this to be an above average year.
Where the hurricanes go is the question.

Northern Hemisphere.
Small pretty cyclonic signature in EPAC
And lots of moisture to work with for waves.
And no El Nino.

Waves lined up in the Atlantic.
Purple circles in the Atlantic.
Yellow 20% CV Waves.

Stay tuned....
....connect the dots!

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Follow me on Twitter for faster updates in real time.

Ps... Anniversary of Hurricane Audrey.
This old image was once new and amazing.

Audrey a rare June Hurricane.
A good look back is below.

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