Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, July 22, 2014

Tropical Depression 2... Still Alive. Forecast to weaken...

Let's look at the newest cone for Tropical Depression #2

Here's a view from the NHC site of the Depression

I look at this image from the NHC & all I can think is...
"Wow! Look at the wave behind TD 2!!"
It's hard to see the small cyclone that is TD 2 because their red circle is directly over it.
But it is worth noting there are waves behind it coming off of Africa

Let's look close up at the TD2

A healthy looking strong red ball.
Ironically we've had better bigger Tropical Storms that didn't have this perfect a center.
Alas... it's not forecast to live much longer according to the NHC.
A bigger question is how did it form and maintain itself this long?

So let's talk about Tropical Depression #2...

He is surrounded by dry air as has been stated over and over by everyone at the NHC. Still... TD2 keeps hanging in there firing up and then looking weak and then firing up. I'm sure there are few meteorologists who take this personally who would like to seed it with pamphlets saying "Die TD2, Die!!"

Being silly, but honestly it's easy to say it will fall apart. Not because of dry air (which hasn't stopped it from forming) but from shear as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. That's what I've heard.

However when you look at this image showing shear I don't see it being that bad.

If I look around look enough I could find a graph that shows a worse scenario.. 
There's always an image to try and prove whatever point you are trying to prove.

The NHC says this about TD2

1100 PM AST TUE JUL 22 2014

The tropical depression is producing a little more deep convection
than it was earlier today.  Satellite images indicate that the
convective pattern consists of a small circular area of
thunderstorms near the estimated center, with limited banding
features surrounding it.  The initial wind speed remains 30 kt
based on a Dvorak classification from TAFB and ADT values from

The global models show the depression becoming highly titled in the
vertical during the next day or so due to a substantial increase in
shear.  These unfavorable environmental winds combined with a dry
air mass should prevent significant strengthening.  The cyclone is
forecast to become a remnant low or open into a trough in 36 to 48
h, but this could occur sooner as suggested by some of the models.

The depression is moving west-northwestward at about 16 kt.  An even
faster westward to west-northwestward motion is predicted, taking
the depression, or its remnants, across the the Lesser Antilles
late Wednesday or on Thursday."

So what will be?

It's hard to say really. Easy money is on this small, but stubborn system to finally give up the ghost.

But for now I'm just watching her confound her critics and keep moving west.

Let's look at the moisture loop that shows how she has more moisture available than anyone really says in discussion. She is small, very small but she has moisture around her.

The 2 shows TD 2 and the pink is moisture ahead of her that she keeps utilizing. 
TD 2 is what you call an over achiever.

latest_wv_loop.gif (535×440)

The loop above that may or may not show up for you... shows TD2 pulsing up again after going dim. It's the loop used by most meteorologists who want to prove how there is no way for TD2 to ever become Bertha.

This is the image that the NHC is referring to when they said "The tropical depression is producing a little more deep convection than it was earlier today."

Truth is I'm like most of you. I go on and off all day looking at the satellite loops thinking.. "is it still there?" "Did it fall apart yet?" "Come on be there" because it's become a drama of sorts that is huge despite the small size of TD2.

Again why do we care if it's there??

Because the models show the following:

Here's another:

Note a path over the islands would, could be a problem.


She is here in the tomorow still...

I want to highlight one last thing... 

Off the East Coast there is an area mildly worth watching. Not officially, but hey the area has been ripe so far this year so I wouldn't count it out. A new cold front should pick it up and blow it out to sea but still.. I'm watching. Always watch the tail end of stalled out frontal boundaries.

On a personal note I'm in Tampa tonight. Beautiful city, great lighting storms and wandering around with my brother on a family quest looking at mostly empty lots where my family once lived in what was once upon the time known as Tampa Heights. And where my Great Uncle had cigar store offices in the Tampa Bay Hotel and offices in Ybor City.

Besos Bobbi... 
Stay tuned.. it's not over ... til it's over :)


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