Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, July 21, 2014

TD 2 Forms in the Atlantic. Low Confidence by NHC in their Forecast & her ability to be Bertha...

Good call for a small, solid cyclone that is rolling west just underneath a wall of Saharan Dust. No over hype... good logical discussion.

It is what it is and it is a Tropical Depression.

Salient part of the discussion is quoted below:

"The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on data from the ASCAT pass.
The environment is marginal, at best, for development during the
next couple of days, as the depression will be moving over marginal
SSTs and into a region characterized by dry air and subsidence as it
approaches the Caribbean Sea. Most of the global model guidance and
the HWRF shows the system weakening and dissipating by 48 to 72
hours. The official forecast follows suit, but the cyclone could
dissipate sooner than shown here. The SHIPS and LGEM intensity
forecasts seem much too high in this scenario, and are not given
much weight in the official forecast."

"Note that the global models are having a difficult time tracking the small
vortex, and confidence in the details of the track forecast is lower
than usual."

Note they end the discussion by saying confidence is low in the forecast... the details. And, yes the devil is often in the details. IF things change down the line they will change their forecast as they always do as is warranted.

Small cyclones do not translate well with the big global models. Often details get lost in the translation. An example of that is that none of the big models picked up development today in the Atlantic.  She is small, but she is also solid. She has a window of opportunity to pull herself together, get a name and have a fighting chance with the shear and dry air.

The new models on the block are not impressed. SHIPS is... so time will prove which ones were right.

She is solid looking right now. How she managed to develop is up for discussion and is being discussed, but my job is to give you the facts in a way that you can understand without a Masters in Meteorology.  

She is what she is... despite the Saharan Dust and less than perfect conditions. She is, like many other storms, a product of the Monsoon Trough that is out in the Atlantic. At some point some storms spin and continue on their own when they leave that region. Think of it like a child learning to ride a bike with training wheels. For now she is holding her own and moving fast, despite the negative discussion written by the NHC on their doubts on her even making it to be a Tropical Storm let alone Hurricane. I would not be surprised to see her become Tropical Storm Bertha. 

She has a long way to go and she's rolling along fast so we will know soon enough!

Official stats currently:

LOCATION...11.6N 43.8W

If she continues to surprise the NHC and continues to develop the models show her moving into a part of the tropics where she would really need to be watched.

I don't want to hype this storm.
I don't want to be a naysayer either.

It's just the honest truth that it is up to Tropical Depression 2 to keep doing what she has done all day and continue to impress us. Or she can give up...  It's the ones that do not give up that often go on to be memorable storms. Keep that in mind.

One thing worth remembering is that if she continues to intensify and exist she moves into warmer waters. Yes, there is shear and yes there is dust .... but that didn't bust her up from getting this far so logic and experience says that often a storm learns to function in negative conditions. She wouldn't be the first or the last. 

Keep watching... she seems to enjoy putting on a show. Is she a one hit wonder or will she continue to entertain us with her dust buster moves?

Besos Bobbi


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