Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, September 24, 2013

Models Show Low Pressure Forming off East Coast of FL... Tampa getting heavy weather... Carib possibilities next week...

To Summarize....

Nothing is going on tropically speaking today.

There is a lot of whispering online and off about possibilities in the Caribbean later in the week. The phrase "some models" means "not the GFS" generally or the CMC is seeing things again.

Take a look at this image below. Shows two things. A storm that forms off the coast of FL from the rain and stormy weather that is there now at the tail end of a front weaves it's way up the coastline and something starts to form in the Caribbean. If you don't believe one that is short range ...why believe the long range one is my question. Run the above loop to see how the storm in the NE off of New York and Boston gets there..

The GFS modes shows a weaker storm system forming off of the East Coast...quasi tropical but I guess mid-level because that's all we got so far this year ya know..   And, it shows weakness in the Caribbean that might...could leave to storm formation. Then again it's still stalking the remnants of Invest 95 begging it to do something. Not the most cohesive GFS run I've ever seen.

This is one image, run the loop above to see what I mean. 

1. Weak heartbeat of a system in the Caribbean
2. Weak heartbeat of a system forming off East Coast.
3.  Look at Winter coming in like gang busters in the far NW in pretty purple & blue

Another model loop that is jerky in that it doesn't flow well and each possible scenario doesn't really resolve itself. Maybe going into Fall we need to reboot the models? Hard to say.. but worth looping, but not very conclusive.

Looking around at what IS out there this morning on the satellite and radar shows that it's very plausible, possible and probably "something" will develop off the coast of FL when the strong weather that is there now plaguing the not so sunny sunshine state finds the warm waters of the Gulf Stream.

Note the phrase.. "low pressure will develop on Tuesday" ...what kind of low pressure is the question.

Looking at the moisture flow...the juice loop...the Orange 9 Ball I may call it (why I don't know just popped in my head..)

Funny but there is finally a twist going on in the GOM and there is no yellow circle. This season has been like Hurricane Season of the Weird. The flow from the Caribbean is straight up through the Yucatan across Western Cuba into Florida. Remember that if anything forms south of Cuba and east of 85W which is sort of the dividing line between where it could go North or NNE vs WNW towards the BOC.

As for images of the weird check this out... beautiful low wound up near Africa..not tropical but awful pretty if you like red. white and blue and many do.

That's just weird.

The whole season has been weird. A big GREEN light from NOAA and Bill Gray's Team in Colorado and then Colorado gets swamped with wild summer floods and nothing forms in the tropics of note.

BobbiStorm's Bottom Line:
Watch the area that is bringing severe, flooding weather to parts of Florida to cross over and develop into something... it has a day or two to sit off the coast of Jacksonville and south of the Carolinas and watch the Caribbean for low pressure to try and form. Watch TWC to try and resurrect Invest 95 and hang loose, be happy, love life and did I mention yet today that the Miami Dolphins are UNDEFEATED?? :)

Look at the bulls eye on Tampa this morning.

I'll end this discussion in real time with a good image Ryan Mauve put up. He's good. Everyone's talking.

Sometimes life is strange than art... 

ECMWF 00z overnight did create a hybrid/subtropical/tropical storm off East Coast for Sun-Tues ...

Besos Bobbi Storm...

Keep watching the system over Tampa moving across Florida out into the warm waters of the Atlantic. Odd light colored dot West of Tampa, maybe upwelling from the ongoing system there (not getting a lot of sunshine on the water ) or just an anomaly. Hard to say but the water off the East Coast of FL is still very warm in September.. bathtub warm... speaking of the bath tub... gotta go 


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