Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, June 24, 2012

NHC Hangs Tough.... edges cone to the right a bit...

That song stays in my mind, "Waiting for the World to Change" but this time we are waiting for the words to change from the NHC to reflect the changes in the models....however they have hung tough with their Westward Ho track....


Though they are now talking La and parts of Mississippi while Florida is getting hammered by severe weather from Tropical Storm Debby and what looks like a new possible swirl, center forming closer to the coastline.

As for me... am going to stick with the thought that Mobile Bay would be more realistic with all of the weather further to the east over Pensacola Bay and areas to the East.

Watch out for Twisters in Tampa and other areas along the West Coast of Florida. If you live to the North of Debby, stay prepared and cautious.

Massive power outages now being recorded in Florida from Debby. As I said yesterday, the financial toll will climb in Florida which is not even in the cone. Go figure. <--- very good

Best discussion right now is out of Hurricane City, as Jim Williams gives a very in depth discussion in real time including discussion of severe weather warnings in Tampa happening NOW. He also put it out before the NHC gave out their much awaited 11 AM...which is gutsy and good.

Maybe after the weather associated with Debby makes landfall in NW Florida or points west, her naked center will move west ... time will tell.....

They may be right, they may be crazy.... but they are going home with the girl they brought to the dance... or they may be looking for her, hope she doesn't run off with the Canadian or they will be up a creek without a model to support their forecast.

Enjoy the song, an old boyfriend liked it a lot... fun music to enjoy while watching Debby do Florida on TWC and waiting to see if the European wants to do Nola now... 

They may have to change this later to correct the beginning grammatically...or not... Avila wrote it so who knows..  Usually we begin sentences with a capital letter but hey, it can't be easy to stick with the plan when the model you based it on... decides to go east on you...

Note the last sentence... they may have to change this... at any time...........

Besos Bobbi
Ps... sipping Volluto sugar... will try and go easy on the caffeine after Debby has moved on...

"it is a very difficult and highly uncertain forecast this morning.
Debby has been moving very slowly toward the northeast...040 at 3
knots...while the wind radii have been expanding in the eastern
semicircle.  This has prompted additional tropical storm warnings
and watches for portions of the Florida coast. 

Debby continues to be sheared with most of the thunderstorm activity
north and east of the center.  This shear is expected to continue
for the next day or so...although some decrease in the shear is
possible after that...particularly if the ECMWF verifies.  The
official forecast is a little less aggressive than the previous
forecast...but remains above most of the explicit intensity

The track forecast is even more complex. The GFS insists on a track
toward the northeast as Debby becomes embedded within a large
mid-latitude trough. However...the ECMWF and the HWRF build a ridge
to the north of Debby and forecast a westward track.  Given the
westward turn inherited from the previous well as the
historical strong record of the ECMWF...the new official forecast
moves Debby initially a little bit to the northeast to reflect
current trends but then turns the cyclone back toward the west or
west-northwest in 24 to 36 hours.  A majority of the GFS ensemble
members now are consistent with the deterministic run...which was
not the case yesterday...making a stronger case for the eastward
solution.  We must be ready to make a change of the forecast track
at any time."


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