Yellow Circle in MDR. Headed Towards Caribbean. Next Name Up is Melissa. Discussion on Track Possibilities & Analog October Hurricanes Matthew & Mitch.

 

30% chances of development.

Very low, trying to get attention.

Many were surprised it was not at 40%

(there's time for that....)

This is a slow motion development...

..according to most models.

There is some there...

It's taking it's time.

To be clear it's the middle wave.

Center stage....

At least it stands out clearly here....

Leaving this here to compare on Saturday evening.

This is a good post on X.

Good satellite imagery.

Good discussion.

My thoughts on it..

The old front might easily pick this up...

....but it's still low and not well developed.

Cruising along westbound towards....

....the Caribbean.

I always say how we view the weather is all about perspective. Mr. Weatherman on YouTube does an excellent look around the Caribbean that is HIS basin and his concerns, while also discussing whatever is out there highlighted by the NHC. Obviously, he is most alert and concerned with this system than people living in Texas or North Carolina; Florida is paying attention for sure. So the link below is his input today, his main point is that this wave is NOT curving before it gets into the Caribbean. Many have made a case for it to curve fast before the Carib, however he wants to squelch that rumor and make sure the people in the Caribbean are paying attention and prepared.  

What do I think? I could see an escape route before the Islands, but it's moving and staying low and will most likely avoid any escape routes and plow on into the Carib. How far it gets into the Caribbean and where it goes from there is open to enough models that you could do nothing all day but run every model and then run the new next set of models once they come out. What I will say is the NHC has placed the "development" grid area currently in yellow so far West it's practically in the EPAC. 

30% in the 7 Day.

Practically touches Nicaragua there!!

Tho it could form faster (says GFS)

It's far out and it's too soon to say for sure where it will go exactly, how strong it will be or what kind of a storm it'll be. Could be a named storm entering the Caribbean then struggle some, if is not a strong storm, with land interaction from Venezuela. If it was a very strong Hurricane (say Matthew) then the nearness of land would have less of an impact. If it's trying to develop on approach to the Islands, much depends on which Islands that would see the strongest impacts and how strong it would be. If it takes up it's whole alloted yellow circle it could develop anywhere..... even in the SW Caribbean. Where it develops, where the center develops and how well the center aligns vertically will tell the tale. The models will try and point the way, depending on the hour and run and the specific model that either intensifies fronts or tends not to...   

Point is being honest, there is no way for sure of knowing what it will do yet. Though, many online are sure. Mr. Weatherman is sure it will not curve away before the Islands. There's logic there. 

Blue dry air to the North digging down.

The old front running from SW to NE

You can see moisture from the lead wave...

...being sucked off towards that front.

Suctioned...... like a vacuum cleaner.

But our wave is behind that.

Much can change.

So stay tuned!

We got a long tracker.

Hoping it stays far away from Florida.

Hispaniola could take a hard hit...

..even if it's exiting NE out of the Carib.

Let's look at 2 hurricanes quickly.

Matthew ...early October.

Note how it slowed down....

...dots are on top of each other.

Stalled by South America..

..okay it crawled along.

Then caught an escape route Northeast.

Note the line looks solid.

Moves slowly...this seems like a pattern.

Late in October hurricane.

Moved very slowly.

Slow movement as a TS not a Cat 5 was deadly.

Flooding, mudslides. 

Whole villages destroyed...

...dead people washed away.

Being honest.

So it swung left............

then

........swung right.

Right up towards Florida.

Mitch was like 2 different storms.

Slow moving. Fast moving.

My problem is Mitch was a late October hurricane.

One could say early November.

So a better analog storm.

Matthew formed on approach to the Islands.

Mitch formed down in the CAG.

Again timing is everything.

Stay tuned!

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather

elsewhere whatever.

So many places it can go....

...maybe one is in this song.