Invest 95L 80% RED to be TS Jerry When NHC Makes That Call - Coastal Low off Carolinas May Form Who Knows For Sure But I'm Waiting on It in Carolina. ....10% Yellow on BOC/Mexico System. Fall Storm... Cold Front...

Small update. 

Small yellow area in BOC

I've talked about close in ....

...this is what I  meant.

In this case it's going to move West

(that's the game plan) 

These are current models as of Monday afternoon.

I'll be off for 2 days and back Wednesday Night..

This is close in time of year.

Also something may form near FL 

And go up to Carolina

2025.....

This is one model run.

Short Term ....

...will see how and if it changes.

Point here is it is Hurricane Season

So stay aware and prepared

I'll be back online Wednesday Night

Follow Mikes Weather Page

Everyone does ;)

keep reading if you didn't yet

it's just a few hours old.

******

I will admit this looks better today.

Way better than yesterday.

70% in 7 days - 50% in 2 days.

Yes, it does look like it curves.

Until it has a well developed center.

A core... I so love a core.

And we see how aligned the core is...

...models are not carved in stone.

But it does look good this morning.

This is a wide pic of the MIMIC

It shows moisture... also shows "energy"

You can see the big, wide view.

EPAC churning out named storms.

A look at the 2025 Hurricane Season ...so far.

If you don't see a pattern here.....

...you need to get new glasses.

There's always that one model.

"There goes a squirrel" 

95L should curve out to sea.

A friend says not to say should.

Oh well...

The other day the models went wild. It may have been yesterday when I lost myself in football and watched the Fins lose to the #keeppounding Carolina Panthers.... so my mind, time line may be messy. It was probably Saturday Night models went wonky showing wild stormy opportunities off the East Coast that I had said would be a storm that would guide the probable Jerry aka 95L out to sea. I said that to me it looked not so tropical more like a "back door cold front" which is basically what we call the cold flow that comes into the Carolinas from the backside of Noreaster offshore. I believed that, yet it was going out on a limb as it could be a Coastal Low off the Carolinas (again) that develops tropical or subtropical characteristics. That said it was one run, then two runs, far out and not ready for prime time believing in it yet. But it's Fall, it's October and really feels later into October than we are for a few reasons ....those being several, consistent cold fronts and cool nights despite temperatures still flirting with 80 degrees.  Fast forward to today, Monday October 6th, 2025 and look at the models below.

 Icon above for Satuday.

Today EURO for Saturday below.

From Windy.... GFS below.

Same day

Yes that's "Jerry"down there most likely.

Icon from Windy for Saturday below.

You get the idea.

The writing is on the wall.

Nothing thru 10/20 on EURO or GFS

In Carib or Gulf.

Doesn't take a brain surgeon or a meteorologist with a doctorate degree to tell you that Fall is on the way. Hurricane Season is not over until the end of November. Every year is different. Like football, on any given week something can pop up and look for a path towards the poles. And as that is happening weather from the poles is finding it's way Down South and that's good because it keeps our atmosphere flowing. These are the true colors of Autumn below as seen on the Temperature filter on Windy.com. If you have not paid for a subscription, you should if you really love weather and maps and supporting a great site. Unpaid for commercial here.  I love www.windy.com easy name to remember!!

Cool weather makes it down to Florida.

Stay aware!

Stay prepared!

October surprises happen!!

But as for me I'm dreaming of Fall ....

...and that means Winter isn't far behind.

Totally love Winter.

I'm a girl for all seasons.....

.... tho would love summer more if I lived in Maine.

Or Montana...have friends there, it's a delight.

In Miami it's just another day in the neighborhood!

Best part about Carolina living is the seasons!!

Sweet Dreams....

..whatever season or weather you want.

BobbiStorm

@bobbistsorm on X

X mostly weather

Elsewhere whatever.

Ps...

 The house smells good; woke up & put food up.

I'll be offline Tuesday and Wednesday.

It's our holiday of decorative booths outside.

Under the stars.... 

I'll be back Wednesday Nite!

I'll update today if something changes today.

James Taylor way back when.....

...fast forward to now vs then.

I had a best friend Sharon who loved James Taylor.

Older than me... connected to his music.

This song annoyed her.

She insisted he was from New England...

Boston specifically.

She was from Maine....she died a few years back.

We storm chasered often, obsessed on weather always.

I tried to explain he was from NC too.

She did not believe me......

"He grew up in Chapel Hill, NC"

Father an Academic at UNC.

Love this song better, makes me smile.

Often I go to Miami in my mind :)

or who knows where....