Friday, October 24th, 2025. Melissa Stronger & Pulling Together. Jamaica & Cuba in Crosshairs. Haiti/DR Already Had Deadly Impacts 3 Dead

 

Melissa is reorganizing, it's kind of like decluttering tho in this case she's looking to get rid of one of her centers so that the real center takes over, aligns vertically and intensifies. Shear is weakening slow, and the shear has been tearing at her young, developing core........but if the forecast verifies (and it should) the shear relaxes,  one center gets stronger and no more "Two Faces of Melissa" and we will be down to one. Why is that so important? Multiple centers make it harder for the models and the NHC relies heavily upon models and Recon information. Unfortunately, as the shear weakens Melissa becomes stronger. The current forecast at 11 AM shows that Melissa should be intensifying as she makes landfall in Cuba. Hurricanes that are in the intensification phase at landfall tend to hit harder than otherwise.

Note she moves slowly for the next day or so.

On Tuesday she picks up speed.

Even if her future eye stays off of Jamaica.

Days of rain from an intense hurricane....

...can create massive misery and destruction.

3 people have been known to die in Haiti...

...from torrential rains from nearby Melissa.

It's a timely reminder of how even a TS...

..can be deadly in

 mountain towns.

150 MPH prior to landfall.

Sobering.

These are wind probs.

Purple, red a sure thing.

Dark green small but there.

Melissa is forecast to begin moving to the W

at some point it pulls up across Cuba.

Whether Jamaica gets a landfall...

..meaning the eye crosses onto Jamaican soil...

Still to be determined.

I know this impacts many people living there, many people who have relatives living in the Greater Antilles and many people about to go on a Halloween cruise that were not expecting a Major Cane to go BOO! 

I'll update after the 5 PM Advisory when a new Cone will be out and discussion and we have a chance to see if indeed Melissa is finally pulling it together. I've always believed it would become a Hurricane sometime on Saturday, that could verify. Rapid Intensification can verify too...

Check back late

NHC Cone at 11 PM.

Posting now, for comparison purposes later.

The reason the "cone" is so round is that she is moving 3 MPH North, after speeding up some, and there are multiple possibilities. It is what it is, so let's go with it and eventually the Cone will look more like what we usually expect. Her movement so far has been slow and erratic, though because it is slow it recorrects itself at times. Current track puts Jamaica to the North suffering the brunt of Melissa. A part of the not so perfect circle covers a good part of Cuba; Havana is not in it yet but they do have wind probabilities.  Tonight's track reminds me of Hurricane Beryl sliding just underneath Jamaica and yet giving it a hard, strong blow. See below.

Beryl's eye slid to the South... a hard hit actually.

Back to Melissa.

Not thrilled with the Wind Probs.

Does Tampa get some at 5 AM?

Miami has more than I'd like.

There are many.... 

...will update after the 5 AM.

If you wonder why.....

...she's pretty far West.

And will get further West...

as you can see below.

She's also expected to be very huge.

Huge in size...size wise.

Looking grim for the Greater Antilles

Greater refers to size. PR not in it.

Jamaica, E Cuba, Haiti & DR 

I'll be short and honest. Melissa is a very hard, minimal tropical storm to do a forecast for as it's hard multiple centers, erratic movement and problems with alignment. We call them tilted storms. It needs to be vertically aligned up in the atmosphere for it to be able to properly develop, evacuate energy, grow thunderstorms and all the things that tropical storms and hurricanes need to do to survive as an entity. When a storm moves at 3 MPH there's time for it to get it's act together. And, in a way it's good as it gives everyone in the path of Melissa to get their preparations done and to put their hurricane plans into action. Those of us who have been doing this a long time and with a good knowledge of Hurricane History have multiple deadly hurricanes dancing in our heads; images of mud rushing down the mountain side wiping away every thing and every on in it's path. Being honest. I said I'd be honest. 

I have done much research on Hurricane History. I have written on it. I have lectured on it. I have spent more hours than I could figure in the Library at the NHC (both of them, two locations) and at the South Florida Historical Center in the archives. Even more fun I've spent long weekends and vacation time down in Key West in the History Room with the always awesome, funny Tom Hambright who ran the room until he passed on a few years ago. I'm grateful to my friends in high places and to a few historians that mentored me and mean a lot to me. 

So many Cuban hurricanes, some that smashed into Florida after and others did not. Each month has it's own rhyme and reason when it comes to patterns connected to CLIMO; and then there are those that break the rules such as Beryl making landfall too early on an island that rarely gets landfall.

Melissa should be added to that list, should the forecast verify and as I was taught when the word "should" is used it's not a given, but it should :)

Sweet Tropical Dreams, 

BobbiStorm

I'll update at the top so the Cone and Forecast Points can be compared easily. I was tired tonight. Sometimes I get Cluster Migraines.... change of weather, too much looping, maybe it's Solar Energy who knows. Difficult storms that struggle along until they pull it together are often the worst to deal with and Melissa seems to be that sort. Had she pulled it together and been stronger she'd have caught the front that tried to catch her tonight, but she's weak and messy with competing centers still. Models do not do well with competing centers, that's a story for another day but it's kind of obvious. So I listened to this song, over and over with the lights off, the laptop shut ... love this song. One of my favorites this year. Enjoy.

For good local coverage in S FL...
...and friends in Carib. Phil Ferro is good!
My local go to for Miami, FLL

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X