The Story of Melissa. Moving Slowly. Time for People in Jamaica and Elsewhere in Danger to Get Their Plans Into Action and Prepare for Melissa ....Melissa Could Be a Harvey (Rains) & Helene (Flash Flooding) in 1 Hurricane. Scary Scenarios Unfolding.... But Today We Are Still Waiting and Watching and I'm Writing.......

2 MPH NNW...

"Melissa Reogranizing"

NHC Title

As I add in here the 11 AM advisory.

Weaker BUT expected to strengthen soon.

New Wind Probs.

Note to Bobbi: "stop gritting your teeth"

Marathon back in, Key West added.

Even Cozumel has a small chance.

The places with 3 rows of Wind Probs below

 

1 row more of a long shot, but possible.

3 rows...get ready put plans into action!

Melissa going thru a metamorphis...

...currently, possibly as per NHC Disc.

Please read it.

I do so love Papin's writing in Discussion.
I'll say it again and again.

 

Check back after 5 PM....

...to see how the forecast verified today.

Shear weakening.......

....she's feeling the call of the North (my words)

5 day intensity forecast for 130 MPH Winds.

link to discussion at the bottom...

...you can find it on NHC page.

A picture of the Cone is good....

...but words matter.

Discussion is definitive not vague.

***

That said keep reading MY thoughts.
Ps used this image because ..

..you can see here something changing.

Round ball stands out

You can see where a tail will be.

Melissa may be a very large system.

Once she pulls it together!

Current image of Melissa.

Her center is SE of Jamaica

She's had 2 centers...

Once that issue is resolved.

She should wrap up beautifully.

And sadly dangerously....

...become a Major Hurricane.

Trapped in the Caribbean.

Current Cone below.

compare and contrast with 11 AM above

5 AM Cone bulges a drop to the right.

Cantore mentioned that this morning....

...said it reminded him of an eye ball.

Giving credit where it's due.

Today is about seeing if Melissa meets her forecast points and if not, why not and if not ....how will the NHC adjust or not adjust believing in the end the game plan will work out. IF this forecast verifies Jamaica would be on the N side of the center stuck in unimaginable amounts of rain. I wrote on that in the blog that is below. Here I am just adding pictures in. I decided to write the blog earlier on X as I can go long there and while vaguely listening to Mike talk about Melissa and life and a diving cold front that will bring possibly upper 30s to Northern Florida and 50s to the Miami area. His fire pit will be working tonight I am sure in Tampa.

See diving front!

Fairly good agreement, would you say?

Enjoy the blog today.

Trying to explain Melissa in a way....

...that some might understand.

It's frustrating to watch and wait...

...worry and wonder.

Trust me people from Tampa to Miami are..

as is Jamaica and Cayman Islands

Cuba

Haiti.

and The Bahamas.

Many in Miami have family in these islands.

Enjoy the blog..

will update later today with models

Meteorological terminology.

Thanks for reading and being here.

chow for now Bobbi

(looks cuter that way and bugs a friend)

:)

Yes in a playful mod today...

Blog as written in real time on X 

Going to write the blog here in real time & add n images later. In truth there is no real "change" to the overall forecast, it's all a matter of time & timing with regard to Melissa. Lots of questions & no solid answers until Melissa pulls it together and stacks vertically. When vertically stacked she is more suspectible to being pulled up, up and away. Strong hurricanes always want to go North at some point ...if steering currents allow or they end up in Portugal if it's 2025. NHC Discussion is good to read, especially if you read from advisory to advisory you get a feel for the real problems going on as they repeat themselves. For example "crawling" "slow movement" multiple center issues stressed. If you think you get frustrated with NHC or Melissa as time is moving in slow motion currently it seems. Imagine how the NHC feels trying to pin down a correct track to warn people for a scenario many have compared to Harvey in that.... it sat, hovering over Texas dumping unbelievable amounts of rain. Houston has it's problems as the city was built in a bayou. Kind of as if Miami had been built in the Everglades not at the water's edge near the Miami River. The Islands have topography Houston does not, so if this is "Harvey like" then it's more like Harvey meets Helene in one Hurricane. Will talk more on that later once Melissa is set to go. A point I made on X is that Melissa is slowly getting dressed for her party while the steering currents up the road get themselves together in time to grab her once she is vertically aligned, a strong hurricane that wants to do Alaskan Cruises and longs to see the Northern Lights and get out of the Caribbean. She should have her make up done, her hair fixed, her traveling heels on and be degrees further to the North when the diving front reaches out for her, scooping her up and off they go. In theory, there's models for multiple scenarios after they begin their travels together. With multiple models and possible scenarios regarding which Islands in the Bahamas gets a visit from Melissa to Bermuda and some questions on the East Coast further North are not resolved yet. Melissa is like a young girl with ADD (multiple centers) walking into Victoria's Secrets staring at the lights, smelling all the perfume fumes and debating if she wants to look for a bra first or "oh wow look new winter PJs with free slippers" or "check out that new hoodie..OMG it has sequins" then remembering she wants a new bra and then noticing the panties are on sale. Then wanders over to the panties grabbing 5 or 6 as she juggles all the bras wrapped on various arms and walks over to the dressing room and gets in line. In the dressing room she dumps the clothes down & checks her make up & hair. Meanwhile somewhere a parent is waiting out in the Mall wondering what is taking so long. And, that's Melissa in the Caribbean debating on Jamaica, Bermuda after the Bahamas... "oh wait do I want to see the Florida Keys" and that's why I have put the Kokomo Song in the blog so often. At some point Melissa grows up, has a sexy red sports car and packs her suitcases and make up and shoes into the little trunk and rather than going off so school as her parents had hoped ...she goes off to see the world. Island delights and beautiful cities. She's a storm chaser now and even gets to takes a selfie with Jim Cantore while he's doing a "segment" at the Rusty Pelican in Miami. Over time people remember Melissa who was messy and could never make up her mind and crawled along at one mile per hour before her multiple centers consolidated and she took hints from the NHC cone and followed the general plan. She ends up settling down somewhere near the Azores and writes a screenplay with an incorrigible writer "producer/director" and they write a movie about storm chasing and finding love in far away places. Good Soundtrack. Some weather thrown in there for excitement. Wins an Oscar! People forget about Wilma whose wardrobe was a bit lacking and in 2035 they remind everyone about Melissa the Major Hurricane in late October near Halloween! That's it for this morning. Good for a writer to let my mind run wild sometimes as it makes me smile and I'm fairly sure someone reading this is going chuckle and think "oh that Bobbi" and that's the glory of ...that's the story of love.... Ps While I was typing I was listening to Mike (yes I can write, think and listen at the same time) and he's now pointing out how there may be upper 30s in FL from this front. That's called a DIVING FRONT on a fast track towards it's destiny picking up Melissa. That's the game plan today, there may be some revisions down the road and some parts of the forecast maybe left on the cutting room floor .... but generally that's the game plan. I will write a solid meteorological based blog later today on model discussion and note whether Melissa is in line with the forecast and if not (time wise) why not. Have a glorious, wonderful day. Fake it til you make it. Do what you love ;) but stay aware and prepared and always listen to the updates from the NHC! Besos BobbiStorm ps song in the blog

Song for the day.... it's really so true. You gotta live a little....cry a little .... and then the storm is gone and life really does go on ....but that's another song...............