Hurricane Harbor: Father's Day Quiet in the Tropics. Calm Before the Storm is a Good Time to Do Hurricane Prep. Wave Train There We Just Need Some Heat in the Atlantic. Close IN the Water is HOT! EPAC Is Also HOT!!

When you see this graphic above...

...know it's fairly normal.

Check graphic below.

The State of the Tropics below.

Huge High Pressure in Atlantic.

Saharan Dust out there.

A parade of waves moving Westbound.

A look at Africa!

Pockets of convection...become tropical waves.

Note the outline of Africa resembles the Gulf

Random thought but true.

Flare up of convection near BOC

(yes we are still watching BOC...)

Ghostly tail end of frontal boundary

Going wide below.

Worth noting that new large waves...

..took a bit bite out of the current SAL set up.

Every new wave takes another bite out of it.

And, SAL tends to weaken down the road.

That's a sign of things to come.

BUT ....we aren't there yet!

The reality is we really aren't there yet. And, there's nothing unusual about that as most years the Hurricane Season starts slowly in sputters of minimal activity and then suddenly it comes to life when conditions are ripe. This is much like when you make a cake, you get all the ingredients, you use the mixer and put it into pans and then put it into the oven. Twenty minutes later you go to check on it and realize you forgot to put the oven on. Oops. Many ingredients were used yet the heat was not there.

You can see the fronts, weak as they are but still there, draped across the top half of the loop above. They slide East slowly after dipping just a drop and parts of the front fall apart across Florida and the Gulf and shear by the entrance to the Caribbean can be seen as the clouds shooting off to the ENE. Waves can be made out crossing the Atlantic to the South of the Saharan Dust as seen by the dots of gray Westbound. The water is not warm out in the MDR aka Main Development Region in the middle of the Atlantic. The water IS warm enough in the Gulf and yet there's shear there.

So we wait.

So we continue to put together a hurricane plan.

We continue to pick up things to add to Hurricane Supplies. We think on where we would go should we need to evacuate and where to hunker down in our homes should we have to ride out a hurricane. What kind of hurricane might it be? A Category 3 or 4 hurricane or a borderline Cat 1 Hurricane. It matters.

Have a wonderful Father's Day! Applies to all of us as we all had fathers and others such as Uncle and Grandfathers we love and some we remember fondly.

Leaving you with a video of Bryan Norcross talking on the way things have changed over time and this particular season. Many have asked what will be this hurricane season and are worried on issues NHC will deal with and I know the NHC will do their best to keep us properly warned. IF they wanted to be chasers they'd be out chasing; they sit in a bunker like building that appears like a lair of hallways going in circles with some rooms and a nice little kitchen area. They stay up all night, they work in shifts and they collect data and do their best to put it all together in a forecast package that will verify.

There are some new models many are watching to see hopefully how we may have improved on other older models. Bryan has always been into new better models, that's why he was the first to say there was a chance Andrew would not take the forecast path and may take another doorway open to it. If you know you know.

I want to remind you that the EPAC is very busy as I said it would be busy early and it is very busy. We are in search of the E name as you can see from the graphic below. I read many long, well organized posts on X about how the EPAC might not start early and it might be a while. I had been saying that it would start early and signs showed it could be busy. That also matters for us as when the EPAC is busy early in the season the Atlantic side takes longer to percolate. I was right and we did have storms early and we are still having storms and the Atlantic is still taking it's own sweet time. Use the calm before the storm wisely....