CSU Forecast Update - Current Discussion on Possible BOC/Gulf June System... Analog Years ....Do You Remember 1996? I do...

I put this up on Insta earlier.

Models still showing increasing moisture

Possible low pressure.

Maybe a BOC system.

Either way a rainmaker. 

Let's start with the EURO

It shows increased convection.

A quasi little wanna be area in the EPAC

Moisture to the North

Reinforcing moisture behind it.

Never shows that much to talk about

But there's always something to talk about...

...when it comes to the GFS

GFS looks promising on 6/17

Bit of a center...color means winds.

Gets up in the BOC 

Still looks the same.

Weak here on landfall.

Different filter on windy.com 

Not a lot of rain actually...

Again it's far out ...

..over a week away.

Until something changes, the Atlantic Basin is not friendly nor interested in tropical formation. That's good as it gives you lots of time to get your act together before you are in the Cone and you're in the panic zone.  Panic mode is never really a good place to be before a hurricane as there's so much that NEEDS to be done.  

Meanwhile the EPAC has the energy.

But, that said.... it oozes up into Carib and BOC.

So stay tuned.

I'm saying "there's a chance" basically.

Regarding the CSU Updated Forecast.

Personally I'm not a big fan of saying

19 Named Storms

9 Hurricanes

4 Majors

Because it's not that simple.

You can have 19 Named storms and many of them are weak and out at sea, only a nuisance for shipping lane forecasts. Most of the 9 hurricanes can be "fish storms" dancing and swirling out in the Atlantic even missing Bermuda. Or they can be weak, wobbly fighting shear not properly aligned systems driving meteorologists out of their minds. And, a few can be lean, mean, fighting machines like Andrew that sliced through the tip of South Florida like a buzz saw barely losing a drop of intensity over land as it continued on towards the Berry Islands off the coast of Louisiana where it made it's 2nd big landfall. 

Until we are knee deep into the 2025 Hurricane Season and we are sure what the steering currents will be and how well developed the named storms are and how strong the Bermuda High really is and where exactly it sets up we are in the realm of a forecast and nothing more. Do we have continued frontal boundaries traveling from West to East or do a few dip down or do they simply go poof and there's a huge high pressure that builds in over the Southeast? Why you ask do I mention that? It's common for low pressure during the hurricane season to form to the South of a huge High Pressure system that has dropped anchor. Then we look to where the shear is......    

It's complicated.

What I do like to pay attention to in the CSU report is Analog Years. 

Numbers are good and obviously the more hurricanes there are, the more of a chance some can make landfall somewhere in the Islands or on the US Mainland. But, again and again it only takes one. A season can start slow as it did in 1992 when the heat in Miami was a visceral thing that cut through the town and it was all anyone talked about. Old timers said it meant a hurricane. Other old timers said the rare 3 crops of mangoes meant a hurricane was coming. Everyone has a wise old saying when it's early August and the heat has been unrelenting and there hasn't even been a Tropical Storm yet. The high was set up and in place and still all was quiet on the tropical front.

I use 1992 as an example, not because it is an analog year but because it's the best example I can give you of how fickle a hurricane season can be and each hurricane season has it's own rhyme and reason. A quite June doesn't mean a quiet August or a free pass to ignore hurricane season.

1996

1999

2008

2011

2021

Note that 2017 has been removed from the list.

I know a choir of happy angels are singing in the heavens.

1996, 1999 and 2008 were difficult years.

All years are difficult if you were hit by a Cane.

1996 and 1999 below.

Busy years with an emphasis West of 60 Degrees W.

Not to raise a panic flag....

...but to show similarities.

A series of Hurricanes impacted Carolinas.

Bahamas busy.

North Carolina very busy.

2008 below.

Again emphasis West of 60 degrees W.

Less room to escape tho some do...

Again Bahamas to NC

A splatter of systems in the Gulf.

Criss crossing Cuba as well.

2011 and 2021 respectively.

Long trackers.

Many tracked further than others.

Nuff Said.

Time will tell.

Currently looking at a long quiet periods in June.

That'll change fast in July.

That I do believe.

2 points from the CSU report.

1. Higher than normal chance of storms West of 60 degrees.

(obviously the further West the less of an escape route)

2. The word "uncertainty" was used 13 times.

There are many conflicting signals.

Neutral seasons are riff with this issue.

That's it for today.

Yesterday I played at the Mall.

Getting lost in the flow of humanity.

Smelling perfumes at Sephora.

Bought it. Reminds if me of Miami.

Love Miami but love the Carolinas too!

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather

Insta definitely whatever 

Bluesky whenever there's a named storm.