Thursday Tropics. 60 MPH Tammy in Tropics... Possibly, Maybe a Hurricane Up in Atlantic... Signature of 2023. New Wave? Next Cold Front! And, the Beat Goes On

 

Tammy 60 MPH

Moving slower West at 16 MPH

First off it's a good thing the NHC pinned the name Tammy on the Tropical Storm, because many have thought it was the convection convention North of the Islands. Visible Imagery shows us many things, but not everything as seen below.  From left to right we see the next Cold Front to move across the SE and then our old front now stationary, decaying away in bits and pieces. We have the faux tropical storm that on this imagery looks as good as Tammy center stage marked by the NHC and to the far right we have another tropical wave thinking it can do what the ones before it could not do. 

Again you can see the features.

New Front upper left corner.

Old decaying front.

Fake Tammy

Real Tammy

New Tropical Wave trying.

Wide Water Vapor Loop shows Norma in EPAC

The movement of the new front... 

(bringing rain to Carolinas soon)

Old front and fake TS

Tammy apporoaching the islands low.

New wave off of Africa.

You can see the flow out ahead of both the fake Tammy and the real Tanmy that is forecast to curve itout to sea. That flow from West to East is evident in the East Atlantic also even though the new wave off Africa is trying to move West.  Down the in the Caribbean there is convection, but there is also currently shear form Norma and the general shear from El Nino. 

So tropically speaking what do I think?

Long range models consistently, for several reasons, show possible development the last week in October and it is common to see something form then either close in or down in the Caribbean. That kind of rhymed, wasn't on purpose. Hurricane Season is fading away slowly, steadily as every day passes and October has moved faster than September in ways ugly and horrible and yet there is beauty in the world. Trees are turning colors in Raleigh and the promise of winter is in the air in a tangible way as Halloween decorations are piled in Target next to little gilttery snowman decorations. It's always possible in late October to get a system from an old frontal boundary off the SE coast, something in the Caribbean or a wave that somehow gets into the Gulf of Mexico. So keep checking in and staying alert but enjoy the subtle changes in the weather if you live in Miami and it's not as humid and cool in the morning or in the Carolinas where it actually snowed up in the mountains already. Enjoy a good cup of coffee or tea or whatever yoyur morning pleasure is and I hope you get the weather you wish for the most.

A cute video down below of Mitch in South Carolina who has wanted to see Fall Foilage and longs for snow. So he took the family with him chasing a chance of wintry weather and he found it and it made me smile. A good lesson in life don't wait for things to come to you, go after what it is you want and maybe you'll find it. 

BobbiStorm

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