Invest 92L 80% in 7 Days 60% in 2 Days ... Consolidating Convection Saturday Night!

 

Invest 92L

Consolidating a bit there.

80% in 7 days, 60% in 2 days.

As always until it forms....

...models are not carved in stone.

So this is my point late Saturday evening and who knows what might change Sunday AM or PM. But as this blog is my own person weather diary, I'm writing tonight on the problem with models and Invests. Some models show 92L is way stronger than the other models that show it being weaker and the stronger models take a hard right turn. Other models skim the islands and at least one takes it into the islands. 

The problem with Cones or areas or possible development shown in the top image with the large red grahic is that people infer too much into the graphic. It's worth remembering it can form anywhere in that graphic and if it forms to the South it's more likely not to make a sharp turn, if it forms on the top side of the graphic and is stronger in intensity it can take that curve that the graphic infers.

So just how strong will it be when it gets to that spot?

How fast will it be moving when it gets to that spot.

GFS has a stronger system 

(small one behind it?)

easier to take the turn.

These images are for WEDNESDAY

June 21st!

Euro has a weaker system.

Less likely to bust into the High.

But really it's too soon to tell.

Who knows really?

For years we tracked Invests before it was a public thing, studied their movement as part of a program and then the Invest process became very public and is often misunderstood. The system has a number and it's being investigated and we have better data, that's far from flying into it and getting way better data and time will tell. Tropical waves are tracked across the Atlantic and studied, once elevated to Invest status it seems more "together" but it's not "there" yet but it is slowly consolidating a core and convection increased today. That's a start.

Note there is a wave behind it...........the 2023 Tropical Wave Train in the MDR has left the station and there's another set to depart tomorrow. Hope you are all aboard with your hurricane preparations as that's the name of the game today, have a plan in case one of them insists on coming to your town, your home and place of work!

Sweet Tropical Dreams, 

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Twitter mostly weather and Instgram whatever.