Hurricane Harbor: 10 PM - Down to 10%.......Yellow X Over Water - Watching GOM For a Wet Weather Maker... Does it Get a Name? Keep Watching... REGARDLESS.... Weather Maker One Way or the Other. Tropics Evolving As We Slide Thru July.

Smaller circle.

Weather is there.

Needs a center at the surface.

Models aren't as excited.

Easy come, easy go?

I don't know.

Watching.

Will see tomorrow what we see.

Great song.

Love Willie.

Sweet Tropical Dreams.......

* * *

30% in the 5 day.

Yellow X has it's toes in the water.

Words matter.

Good Discussion from Papin.

NHC guarded still as they watch to see what happens.

Radar imagery tells the story in real time.

vs models that infer what could happen.

This is the area where we suspect some sort of development will occur later in the week. As the NHC says "regardless" of development and that usually means they are hedging their bets because it's going to be a big weather maker yet we are not sure what the exact designation will be. So, regardless, this is an area that will light up with watches and warnings for people at the beaches, small craft and if and when it develops a wind field it could do more than just rain on someone's summer vacation.

See how stretched out that frontal boundary is....

...in pretty shades of colors.

From the Gulf of Mexico to the Carolinas....

... watch the tail end of a front for tropical development.

It's also worth reminding everyone that there are two pieces of energy. One is in the Gulf of Mexico on the Southern edge of this trough complex (old front, call it any name you want it's stuck over the SE) and other area is off the coast of the Carolinas. They both have various signatures and some model support.

Another indicator of vortex energy.

Sounds like names for Top Gun pilots.

Vortex and Energy.

Which one are you?

No purple splotch in the GOM yet.

An old fashioned map of the area.

Bottom line here is that most likely the Eastern energy in the Atlantic off the coast of the Carolinas slides off around the huge protuding High pressure and the Low over Alabama and Mississippi slide down into the warm waters of the GOM beaches. The ITCZ is still there getting stronger every day, despite the Saharan Dust acting up in the Atlantic bringing you tropical sunsets as it edges it's way into our part of the world. Orange and red are not "normal" colors for a sunset or sunrise, so if you like to take photographs follow the dust and you'll get some beautiful tropical images.

Will we get a tropical storm? Possibly, so just keep watching and that's what the NHC is doing. Regardless of a name, designation or possible advisories we could have anything from a noname deluge across the Gulf of Mexico to a tropical depression or named storm that actually takes form and travels in one direction or the other.

It all comes down to timing. Where the High is, what the orientation of the High is and how much shear is there if and when the D storm tries to form in the Gulf of Mexico.

Stay tuned.

But remember.........out where this Upper Level Low is spinning.... in the not so distant future we may be watching a tropical wave make a run for the tropical roses and if a hurricane shows up where this Upper Level Low is currently... Don't say I didn't warn ya. Seen this play out over time, time and time again. There are always signs in the atmosphere and the water vapor loop becomes a crystal ball sometimes more accurate than a model on long range changes in the enviroment.

While people are complaining about the heat or the rain or their summer slipping too fast away, know that the tropics are in the process of flipping over to a more friendly environment for those tropical waves moving Westbound as I type. At some point SAL slows down and stops shooting off immense dust storms into the Atlantic and at some point the Easterly shear near the Leeward Islands stops tearing apart the tropical waves that manage to get across the pond.