Hurricane Harbor: The Day After Colin..... Bonnie Forecast to be a Hurricane in the EPAC - July 4th. Nothing Happening! License to Chill... Party or BBQ!

Quiet at the NHC today.

BBQ Day! YAY!!

Pics first, my thoughts below.

Bonnie is in the Pacific.

Old wave not totally dead but laying low.

Leftovers from Colin off the Carolina Coast.

The MDR is as dead as it gets.

SAL is there in full bloom as it's July!

Old wave in Carib...

...we STILL have fronts draped across the SE.

Check out Bonnie now!

65 MPH forecast to be a Hurricane!

NHC says 100 MPH!!

Sal in charge in the Atlantic.

Dark red, strong dust plumes crossing the Atlantic!

My thoughts............

Same as always. Watch the tail end of any close in fronts dangling in warm tropical water. When it is slow in July and SAL rules the Atlantic Basin you watch for close in homegrown storms to form or try to form. It would be hard for anything in the distant Atlantic to fight off that SAL. In truth July is often all about the atmopshere realigninig itself to a more favorable environment for the real players of the hurricane season. That one wave that rolls off of Africa on July 25th that looks as if it's got a tropical mission. That one wave that made it across the Atlantic that tries and develop closer in warmer water. Sometimes you get that one Bay of Campeche system that is kind of like some sacrificial rite of hurricane season before the real dangerous hurricanes begin.

Here's a link to a blog with a short history of short lived systems.

http://www.damweather.com/2021/09/a-short-history-of-short-lived-tropical.html

As I said I'm not going to into the debate that I missed as I was offline and the debate seemed to last about as long as Colin. I find it kind of ironic that we spent a week watching PTC waiting for it to form and despite all the models and discussion it took it's own, slow time before it became Bonnie then exploded in the Pacific.....go figure. And while few are watching, Colin blows up and tightens up into a neat little swirl lashing Edisto Beach with squalls and flooding parts of Charleston; to be fair parts of Charleston floods easily like parts of Miami. Just kind of ironic.

Jim Williams weighed in on Facebook with his thoughts on Colin. It's shown below. You can discuss it with him on Facebook or Twitter.