Hurricane Harbor: Updated! SW Carib Gets a 20% Yellow Circle! Something Brewing in the Tropics? Homegrown Can Always POP Up & Surprise. HUGH HIGH IN PLACE...Steering waves West. Water Temps Only Getting Higher. Hurricane Supplies Basics.

20% in the area we have been watching.

For serious convection to be considered for a yellow circle it needs to be consistent convection and it needs good model support. We've been watching this area for days. I tried doing Reverse Psychology with it and yes, it got it's own yellow circle. As I said below, earlier in the day the huge high will shove everything West for a bit so this little chickie may take the long way over the Yucatan if some models are correct. The good model support is shown below! Ouch...

Yes it is the GFS.

But the EURO shows "something"

That's too hard to ignore and it's been robustly convecting.

EURO kind of closes something off broadly.

But same day, same place.

Down below you see the deep reds.

Up above you see an old frontal boundary.

In the blog earlier I showed how the high is huge.

Pushing things West for now...

...a Yucatan to BOC storm is logical.

Possible.

Get's tropical gas from the Pacific below.

EPAC also popping so will be interesting to see..

..just what happens in real time.

Last but not least.

That's a beautiful, round wave coming off of Africa.

Yes, low but the high would make it dip a bit also.

Will see but that's the nicest wave I've seen in a bit.

Stay tuned.

Please read discussion below on the High.

High and dry and a steering factor.

Thanks for reading!

Bobbi...

Keep reading...

See the face in the Atlantic.

You might be thinking that's the Grinch that stole the Hurricanes, but no not really. It's June, a bit too soon for Atlantic action but it's strong and alive and steering everything West, low under the high. See the low waves that just came off of Africa?

120 hours out...

Check out that High locked in place.

CMC above..

...EURO below.

They both agree.

HIGH PRESSURE

HOT HOT HOT in Carolinas this week!

It's Sunday morning, a lot to do in a short time and there's not much to talk about happening now. Yes, there's clusters of clouds in the Gulf of Mexico and there's a front (weak barely there but there front) draped across Florida. In theory or according to models something forms in the EPAC so I always count 5 days or so from that for the GOM/CARIB but sometimes something pops up and surprises us home grown wise.

Note as we move deeper into June.

Chances for the Caribbean to come alive close in.

But today, nothing out there specifically.

Between the strong high and the Saharan Dust that reigns in the Atlantic in June through parts of July it's not extremely favorable. But if anything sneaks in to a slot of possibilities then watch out as the water is warming up ... especially along the East Coast and the Loop Current is in place and signs still point to a very active hurricane season. Old fashioned hurricane season possibly, the kind that come alive late and are mean for weeks.

Looking at very long range models and various data I'm very concerned about the period from Mid July out... Mid to late July looks impressive for tropical trouble moving all the way through August.

The season splits between early storm (July and August) and the bumper crop of September Remember Hurricanes. Early Fall weather and strong cold fronts change everything, they rearrange the patterns and different steering currents take hold.

So have a wonderful weekend! Keep filling up your hurricane supplies. Going to mention a few products this week that are a must for anyone and actually fairly cheap to get to keep in hand in large amounts. People get hurt often AFTER the hurricane while cleaning up, taking down shutters and from lack of sleep making careless mistakes, accidents happen so these are as important as what you want to nibble on in a hurricane.