Hurricane Harbor: Updated! at 5PM PTC1 Advisory Package from NHC -Waiting on 91L to GET OFF THE YUCATAN. While There Dealing With Shear. Timing is Everything. For Models To Verify It Needs to Follow the Models.

Waiting on 5 PM Advisory.

NHC is putting out an advisory package for a Potential Tropical Cyclone at 5 PM. Good call, this is exactly the type of storm that the PTC warnings were made for... a storm that could come together close in with very little warning for the local population as to the details.

Big blob but the center is not currently under the blob.

Currently....

I'll update soon

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This system is just totally stuck on the Yucatan.

Like a Country Song stuck in your head.

It's taking it's time.

Timing is everything.

It's currently dealing with shear also...

...it's still a work in progress!

Models from www.tropicaltidbits.com

Clustered over Florida.

I'm going to keep this very short. Until the NHC decides to upgrade this to the level of putting out an advisory package complete with a Cone, discussion and watches and warnings there is nothing new to say. I will say that timing is everything and the longer it sits stuck on the tip of the Yucatan the more chance there is for some wild card deviance from the current plan that seems... mostly ... set in stone.

Speaking of watches and warning it's in their discussion (WORDS MATTER) that they may put up watches and warnings, watch for Cuba and Key West to be in it first! See quoted discussion from the NHC at 8 AM. First you hear "interests in Western Cuba, the Florida Keys...." then you hear specifics. As a child my mother taught me that when they start to say "Turks and Caicos" while watching a hurricane to our ESE you know that you're next to get the watches and warnings. She was mostly right. As a 4th generation Floridian whose family rode our hurricanes in Key West in the 1880s and Tampa in the early 1900s I know a little bit about patterns of Florida and Tropical Weather. Note it's the ONLY weather we get in Florida, which accounts for so many local kids being excited when Hurricane Season begins because something might happen.