60% Chance of Something Forming. Florida Pay Atten as Models Track IT (ALEX??) Across Florida. Tomorrow if June 1st Hurricane Season Officially Begins in ALL Ways

 

2 day on the left. 5 day on the right.

60% chances of formation in 5 days.

Why does everything have to be complicated.

Models currently.

Again nothing has formed.

Until a "CENTER" forms models are IFFY.

IF TD1 forms or TS Alex forms.......

.... stormy weather could be displaced far from the center.

See this is the problem, unless this wraps up into some neat strong Tropical Storm, the weather may be everywhere and when I say "weather" I mean STORMY WEATHER. If you live in the Miami to WPB area you know that you have had heavy rain and storms for days so this isn't much new but it adds to the misery. If you think it was flooding yesterday, wait until you see Saturday!!

This is the forecast discussion out of the NWS at Key West (some of the best mets around are there in) as they say "all forecast weather elements will be highly sensitive to the exact track, size and strength of the this low" and that's exactly the bottom line. 

Until it forms a center and we see how much weather wraps around the center and the size of the system (size matters) and the strength of this system it's impossible to tell you exactly what will or won't happen. We aren't talking Andrew or Wilma or Katrina we are talking an early June tropical system coming up from the Caribbean/GOM area towards Florida with possible impacts to Carolinas and the Georgia coast in some way later down the tropical road. 

I'll update this blog later today with more information, hopefully a more exact time line. Agatha is still struggling her way over mountainous terrain trying to get back into warm water.  It has a small window of opportunity as there is a break in the SAL (Saharan Dust) but be aware there is a bit of it where this tries to form that will keep it intact, then it travels over the various loopy currents of warmer water while trying to find it's groove.

Loop Current.

Current wind profile...NOTHING THERE.

Tomorrow I will talk on the Loop Current more.

I'll update later today.

On a personal note I culdn't sleep last night due to a bad sinus headache that became a stress headache that kept me awake. I may or may not have changed my main gmail password by accident ...or not. But, I was locked out this morning and though they did let me into my blog (YAY) it's been a tiring morning. Can I just start over?   Hey...that's what Agatha is saying too!!! 

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Ps... I need a tropical vacation............