Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Friday, June 05, 2020

7 PM. TROPICAL STORM Cristobal Departing the Yucatan Headed for Loiusiana & Other Towns on I90. Stay Tuned.



Cristobal looking likje an angry parrot.
Maybe he was Pirate Cristobal in another lifetime?

5 PM Below.


No real changes to track or forecast.
I'll be off Saturday until around 9:30 PM.
So check carefully for any changes in the forecast.
As always I direct you to Mike at Spaghetti Models.
www.spaghettimodels.com

Going to post my friend's video here.
Here's wonderful.
He has this 7th Sense when it comes to this.
Even my son follows him ... 
... probably before me. 
He also watches Mike. 
We teach our kid's to be weather savy at a young age!


While I'm offline for the Jewish Sabbath on Saturday...
Go right to the source... 
NHC is the official source for all info on Cristobal.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Cristobal

A video I made earlier.
Being honest I was surprised it didn't die ...
...over the Yucatan.
It was far inland.
Models were insistent.
But it's pretty impressive.


Being honest here as everyone is either hyping this storm or making fun of it. I wouldn't make fun of it, it's going to bring nasty, strong weather over a wide area and haul North up towards Canada. Somewhere along the way someone is going to get hit hard by this much tropical weather moving deep inland, after bringing storms, severe weather and some localized flooding along the coast. Any system that survives a trek from the Pacific into the Gulf of Mexico ... gets two names in different basins, sits over the Yucatan traveling so far South that at one point I was concerned it would pop back into the Pacific and demand the name Amanda back. Seriously that could have gotten messy, but no it followed the models and this morning moved off of the Yucatan and is moving at a nice, steady clip North towards it's next landfall. Any system that doesn't die when it could have died, shouldn't be ignored.

I wouldn't get on a plane to chase it because apparently I'm more afraid of plane travel and Covid than I am a high end Tropical Storm. What a world we live in... huh? If I lived in Tallahassee trust me I'd have been on the road with a friend who lives up there going to check Cristobal out for myself. It's an interesting start to a Hurricane Season that has been forecast to have a specific weakness for landfalling storms in the Gulf of Mexico. Maybe this is good and it brings home the message to the rest of Hurricane Country that this is forecast to be a mean, busy Hurricane Season. And, it is what it is so I suggest you start making hurricane plans. There are two other areas I'm watching for possible development down the road and don't be surprised if you see a Yellow Circle pop up somewhere. 

Everyone have a good safe weekend and I'll be online Saturday Night around 9:30 PM or so. It's warm in Raleigh and I'm really wanting to hit the road and go to Myrtle Beach or Savannah sometime soon, but for now enjoying being hone and grateful for what I have where I live and time is moving so fast this year I want to enjoy each day and to what I love and what I love is honestly the study of Hurricanes and this season should keep all of us very busy. Keep reading if you didn't so already.

* * * 


2 PM.
Cristobal got his wings back.
He's a Tropical Storm again.
Moving N at a good clip.
12 MPH!
Wind Speed 40 MPH.

hiatlsat_None_anim.gif (768×496)

Cone pretty much the same.




I want to call attention to the huge rain shield there.
It could wrap some but there's a lot of dry air..
...to his West so he should be lopsided leaning East.
Will see once he's totally off of land..

Also early June waves are strong.
Hitting shear but swam from Africa to the Carib.
More where that came from..
..be glad today is June 5th.

Below a good product NHC is putting out.
Shows the storm surge impact FAR from Cristobal.


Especially as the shape of the GOM..
... some areas are very prone to flooding.
And they have been having rain for days.
So keep your eye on that.


Note how far inland the rain goes.

Made y'all a video.
Listening to music today while looping.
Dave Schwartz from TWC fame loved this song.
He was a great talker and met but ...
.... he loved to sing and dance.
He'd have appreicated this video.


So note the huge amounts of moisture out 
ahead of Cristobal.
Drenching Tropical Rain.
Keep that in mind.
Along that coast outlined in red above.
Stay home.. don't take the boat out.
Stay away from the beach unless....
...you're a real storm chaser.
And maybe prepare for the 2020 Cane Season.

 Have a blessed beautiful day!
I'm watching water vapor loops.

Keep reading if you have not done so.


From 9 AM 

Models for Cristobal.

Says Tropical Depression.
News of TS status new.
Models the same.



He has several models up.
I chose the one from www.tropicaltidbits.com

Another model below.


Where is it going?
Everyone wants to know.
When ... everyone wants to know.
Personally waiting for it to leave the Yucatan.
And be totally in the water.
Before seeing what it's got under the hood.
But this is how you use www.windy.com
So many people ask me...
..it defaults to one mode and one model.
You can change it, play with it.



Specially headed for some town on I90 it seems.
I-10 will be a nasty drive at some point.
If you are traveling by car, plan accordingly.


I didn't need the NHC advisory to see it's getting ready for it's trip.


Come on Cristobal you can do this!

You can see here how it happens.
It digs down and lifts it up.
A dance as old as time in the tropics.



https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3
+shtml/050836.shtml?

Leaving you the link for the NHC Discussion that they will upgrade with new words later this morning. It's barely moving, possibly starting to move (or crawl) but you can see something going on there in the various satellite loops. I believe the NHC is being generous with their wind speed in an attempt to for continuity with their eye on the end game. Where is that end game going to be held? It seems somewhere in the Louisiana area, though it it veers off for Josh where he's taken that cottage in Bay St. Louis for the summer but it seems that Cristobal is coming earlier than planned.

So why do I mention that? Because..... there is some uncertainity currenty as to what Cristobal will look like when it gets to where it's going. Will it be a real, true Tropical Storm or a mishaped Subtropical like Tropical Storm that actually became a hurricane like Earl (eww, sorry Earl but true) or almost a hurricane winding up as it makes landfall somewhere along the N Gulf Coast. Why does that matter except for the record if it's not a Hurricane? Because according to one model huge amounts of rain from a distant bandlike feature creating a training effect from Louisianna to the Florida Panhandle and the center of that area may be near @icyclone cottage; again the "center" would be to the left and the stronger weather to the East of the "center" and you have to keep that in mind. Another model shows it wrapped together nicely going straight up towards Louisiana and many models have the "center" veer off to the West as it approaches the coast. Not sure he will make the trip for so sloppy a system but it could tighten up according to some models. Currently forecast to move fast so flooding might not be such an issue but it should be a Squally Sunday according to the NHC. Wish I was there..


Understand that this beautiful part of the Gulf of Mexico is basically one region divided by state boundaries but not all that different from the Panhandle of Florida to Louisiana and you'd know if you ever did the drive. If you haven't, it's a great trip to do and a must for people who want to see where Hurricane Camille came ashore at Pass Christian.

Again it's all in the timing. There is a window for a ticket to ride in the flowing river of the atmosphere and depending on when Cristobal finally leaves the Yucatan he has to hit that river just right to develop more and get where he is going. That's why NASA launches at ridiculous times such as 4 AM for night launches or in the middle of the afternoon during the rainy season in Orlando. If you have to catch a connecting flight, you schecule the first one carefully so you don't miss it running through the ridiculously huge airport in Atlanta with your whole family trying to catch the flight to Miami because the flight out of Chicago took off late and you may get stuck in the airport in Atlanta if you miss that Delta flight leaving in 10 minutes.Timing matters.


Hard to tell exactly where the horizon is here above.
Kind of like the exact intensity of Cristobal on landfall...
...or where exactly landfall will be.
Somewhere inside the Cone.
Remember weather may happen in Florida...
...far from the center. 


Basically until Cristobal gets his messy, moist system into the Gulf of Mexico and starts swimming North I'm not going to focus on where the landfall is or what his strength could be. He could veer West, he could struggle to wrap up or he could surprise us all and head for those little cities along U.S. 90 from Gulfport Mississippi into New Orleands (a beautiful ride) are all going to be experiencing rain from Cristobal and while we are at it so will the towns in the Panhandle of Florida... not to excluse Alabama beaches from any weather. It's just really a crap shoot right now and irrelevant really as with systems such as this weather happens everywhere and often far from the "center" that has yet to reform and yet to leave the Yucatan but seems to be gathering together his luggage and finally hitting the road.

Regarding models, what surprises me is they seem set on Cristobal catching an express ride from the Yucatan up to the middle of the Gulf of Mexico. Few models ever showed that so it shows how off models can be. They did show fast movement in the North Gulf of Mexico, however the trip leaving the Yucatan was expected to be slower.  So can't wait to see that happen in real time. Position not that far apart and that's why the NHC cone is narrow but timing is a bit off as is the location of the real weather. The NAM (a short term model, often right but always made fun of by model people) has it wrapped up like a donut and if that verifies we could see it become a hurricane. Not taking anything off the table and taking a shower fast after I finish this because I want to see what Mike has to say because honestly hate running models all morning by myself and Mike makes them fun.

NAM 


Look at the Florida Panhandle on this model.
A long band would slam that area.
Think tornadoes, severe weather.
He's still due S of Louisiana when this is happening.
NAM has his him fast and strong. 

Other model not as strong.
And our Mississippie area getting heavy rain.
Storms love to strengthen upon landfall.



Check back later please.
I'll update this afternoon with new Cone.
And any new models.

As for Hurricane History of the Day.

Earl from the 1998 Hurricane Season.
A late summer storm now early June.
But it was ugly forming ...
(sorry true)
But it did wrap up though...
the strong weather was everywhere.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Earl_(1998)

This year could be similar in ways to 1998.
My issue is it was a late starting season.
But the NHC today is different from the NHC then.
So still worth taking a look at 1998 as analog.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Atlantic_hurricane_season



Note last frame on the NAM
Before landfall below for Cristobal.
That is why I chose Earl for today.


The center to the left.
Tons of nasty weather to the right.
Something to think on.
Oh and no one thought Earl would ever get that strong.

It's not over til it's over.......

Love you all, 
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Will add a song later.
But enjoy this great short video.
I made last night because I loved it.
Makes me smile.
Mike always makes me smile.

He's got great hands... you see?
Check those movments out.
We all tell the same story in our unique way.






posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:14 AM

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