Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, June 02, 2020

Updated 5 PM. Tropical Storm Cristobal Formed ... So Many Questions. Where Does It Go? How Fast...How Slow...


Wow how low can he go.
Needs to pick up and move away from land.

5 PM Update.


Here's my thoughts on Cristobal.


Cristobal hasn't moved.
Doing a very small loop at best.
And that was forecast.

Low confidence in discussion.
They used "appears" often...
and "could" twice.



Cranky's most hated graphic.
It's useful though for timing purposes

Straight forward and straight up to the North-ish.

Could come in around St. Marys Louisiana.
Bay, bayou, fishing, shipping.
We'll see if it rides straight
Or hooks that left or not.


We well see tomorrow.
Tonight we are gonna rest.

Leaving you tonight with this great scene...
...from one of my favorite movies.
Cat Ballou....

Think Cristobal has had too much tequilla....
...if you ask me.


But in the end he cleaned up real well.
Won an Oscar.
You might want to check out that movie.
While Cristobal spins close to land.
Models show him taking off whoosh to the North.
Hope he's not too hung over.

Sweet tropical dreams...
... well unless you just began reading.
Continue on ;)




Giving him credit as he came up first in my feed.

I waited after the earlier advisory to update.
 I beleived Recon would find TS Winds.
And the NHC would indeed upgrade.
And they did so updating now.


My feed looks like this currently.




Their official statement.


Now gonna show you two images.
As exciting as it is to have our 3rd named storm..
Cristobal has some issues to resolve.
He probably needs a good tropical shrink.
This growing mass to his right....
... has to be scaring him.




Images from a fantastic site.
https://www.baynews9.com/fl/tampa/weather/tropical check them out. 


How does this impact Cristobal?
It's very Matthewish.
And it never hurt Matthew so ...
...time will tell.

I'll update after the 5 PM EST
please keep reading if you haven't done so already.



* * *

9 AM



From far away you can begin to see TD3
A sign it's transitioning to Cristobal.
Up close below it's stronger than yesterday.


My morning thoughts on the above images.



Early morning advisory.
That's forecast speed ...
...it's barely moving.
Drifting maybe.
Sitting and spinning for sure.


Models from wwws.spaghettimodels.com



As I am not a big model hugger.
I'm giving my thoughts here from the WV Loop.





That's a large moisture footprint.
It it hangs around we have flooding problems.
Let's hope it picks up speed and leaves.

Where do I think it's going?

Sabine River area. I know I say that often but it's often an area prone to tropical invasion by numerous storms of all magnitude at all times during the hurricane season. In 1886 a hurricane came ashore there and that's one of my analog years. Alma in 1966 hooked right as many do when there is a front moving down but are there fronts left to move down and grab it or does it surge North quickly around the Sabine River hooking to the left a bit at landfall? Much depends on the placement of the high when Cristobal gets up there and actually I mean both High Pressure areas that are currently shown in the short video I made above for this blog. Helps me keep the blog shorter and easier to understand.



Close up area.
Google Sabine River.


Wider view above.
Those cities in that box need to watch Cristobal.

As for some Hurricane History ...
Google this monument below.



Read up on that season from the link above. One storm formed after another taking aim at similar places. So when you ask what the NHC is talking about having another form possibly from this same stagnant gyre feature...this is how that happens. It probably won't but it could. 

Could we have a hurricane this early in the year? Yes, of course we can. 1966 brought Hurricane Alma and that's the more normal track to curve right in the Eastern GOM but again we are throwing out the Rule Book for 2020.  Sorry no satellite imager for 1886 and 1887. You can Google those seasons online and read about them on Wikipedia and other sites.

I'll update this afternoon after Recon sends back messages and the NHC decides if it's ready for Prime Time with the Cristobal name and the next set of model runs come in. As you can see from the NHC Cone above it is barely moving so basically today we watch and wait. IF YOU LIVE IN IT'S PATH.... prepare now and if you don't need it for Cristobal I promise you there will be more where this one came from later in the season. Sorry but true.



And I just checked after writing the above text.
And the 7 day charts do have it making landfall.
Could the NWS and BobbiStorm be wrong?


Truth is things will change some before then.
It's not a matter of right or wrong.
Weather evolves in real time.

And it's 2020 so the Rule Book is thrown out.
So place your bets.
Prepare for a Hurricane Season to Remember.

Be back later, 
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps... I needed to LOL. I needed to laugh.
Laughter is good.
Jim is awesome.
He can always make me laugh.
He's in great form today.
That's good because we need him in 2020.


He's a good soul.

As for my song of the day.
I truly love Darius Rucker.
And this song rocks.
It's up there in my all time top 10.
Anyday, anytime I can listen.
And I smile.















posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:35 AM

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