Part 2 2020 Hurricane Season Forecast. Analog Years, Where We May See Landfalls. What to Expect.
As I was writing this TD3 formed.
So showing it below.
Nothing says busy season.....
... more than the 3rd system on June 1st.
Keep that in mind.
Saying 2020 is a busy season is not an opinon..
...it's not a forecast.
It's a fact.
We are having a busy hurricane season.
Analog years below.
Maps.
My thoughts on the 2020 Hurricane Season.
These are the names we will become too familiar with this year.
2020 Hurricane Season is here.
Below is a loop of the Atlantic Basin on June 1st.
It does update in real time so ... it's a good wide loop.
June 1st we have Invest 93L looking for the name Cristobal.
I like this loop as it shows the whole basin.
And it updates in real time if you check back.
A lot of moisture being funneled up into the GOM.
That's a pattern we will see repeated this year.
A strong ITCZ from Africa to the Caribbean.
I want to remind you of 2019.
Why? Because some years are similar.
Example?
2004 and 2005
1995 and 1996
Similar but different.
How could 2020 be similar to 2019?
Note how Arthur traced the 1999 pattern...
...of up along the coast.
Beryl in 2012 made landfall close to Bertha of 2020.
My concerns for 2020:
3 Areas here are my biggest concern.
1. Caribbean Islands
2. Gulf of Mexico.
3. East Coast.
Long trackers from Africa could make their way into the Carib.
Vertical Shear is forecast to be low there this year.
That means more storms could track into the Caribbean.
If they do... they make landfall usually.
Either they keep rolling towards Central America...
...or they curve up towards the Gulf of Mexico.
Jamaica and Cuba being in their way.
A storm going through the Yucatan Channel ...
And an additional concern is the East Coast.
Last year we had a plethor of storms tracing the E Coast.
Dorian took aim at Florida then curved fast.
Other storms did as well.
Florida got lucky.
Will Florida stay lucky?
In any given year Florida is in it.
But many years the Caribbean or GOM is shut down.
Not this year.
El Nino is gone.
Neutral is leaving us for La Nina.
Neutral into La Nina ups the ante for a busy season.
Everyone has an opinion this year on everything. We all looked forward to the 2020s as some sort of upbeat, anything goes 1920s and we got the anything goes part for sure. Out of seemingly nowhere the Virus known by several names appeared and raced like wildfire across the world until it officially became a Pandemic. Schools were closed, jobs were put on hold and businesses shut down hoping it would slow the curve and save lives. Everyone has an opinion on Covid AKA Corona Virus.
As mets we love maps. I took a minor in Geography, I have more maps than I can count in my house and I can't tell you how many hours I spent back in February and March staring at this map. I updated it as often as I usually do the NHC site to see if they are upgrading an Invest to Tropical Storm status.
And opinons...oh my gosh. Wear a mask and stay home. Don't stay home you have to live your life. Don't wear a mask it's bad for you and doesn't help. Wear a mask or else I'm gonna huff and puff and bitch at you on Facebook.
But opinions are nothing new here.
"The EURO is King. The GFS stinks!"
"The GFS is so much better than the EURO"
Join a group online to talk weather but make sure you choose the group that likes your preferred model.
Then we have the protests on the horrendous murder of George Floyd by a policeman with a long record of complaints aginst his behaviour who was fired and charged with 3rd Degree Murder; I personally think 2nd Degree Murder would have been more fitting. I'm a believer in peaceful protest, as a young kid I organized many marches and protests with the police's help and well they were peaceful. I don't like violence. I don't even watch violent movies. And, yes that may seem strange as I have chased hurricanes and tropical storms and I love a wild storm.
So no mater what you opinion is on Covid or Corona Virus or if you think it's overblown and not that dangerous or your opinon on protests or vacations by air this year or staying home there is one thing all meteorologists I know agree on and that is 2020 will be a busy, active hurricane season. And, almost all meteorologists I know agree the threat of landfall is increased this year due to low vertical wind shear, warm water temperatures and El Nino seems to have been chased out of town. La Nina may be forming and that could up the ante for a wild Prime Time Hurricane Season in late August, September and October. Remmeber Hurricane Sandy was a Halloween Hurricane.
And I say Sandy because I do believe 2012 is a possible analog year to this year.
What are my analog years?
First of all I have put them together and will update them as we get into the season.
I've specifically looked at years that began very early similar to 2020.
I've checked current weather patterns that have been repetitive against other years.
An example is strong severe weather and tornadoes in the Deep South yet less other places.
The track of upper level systems at higher latitudes this Winter and Spring into June.
Years that were mostly Neutral or Weak La Nina years.
Using these two maps I showed in Part 1 as an example and as I agree with both Rob and Jim I'm using that general thought process against hurricane history to see what years fit that mode with the other parameters I set. Please refer to Part 1 of this discussion.
Rob hightlights the Caribbean.
Storms from there get into the GOM.
He highlights June & October for SW FL.
And the general East Coast.
Below Jim draws a possible track map...
...for cities he believes could be impacted this year.
I used the charts from this site for La Nina and El Nino years. They are a good reference source.
Note I give special empahsis to the following years as compared to this year.
But no two years are exactly alike and there are always some exceptions as well as factors that arise that alter the Hurricane Season in real time. How much SAL will we have this year is an unknown, but we will know soon enough. SAL is always there, some years it's stronger than others. A large volcano can blow in the Caribbean spewing dust becoming an inhibting factor. Normally I wouldn't bring that up but it's 2020 so I went with Volcano rather than a Matrian Invasion. Having a good sense of humor is a valuable asset in 2020 may I add.
Best Analog Years
1886/87
1938
1953
1966
1996
1998
The above years most fit this year's pattern, but there are others years shown below as well.
Again there are many things to look at when figuring out how the past could show us the future.
The hurricane season of 1886 and 1887 fit this pattern. And may I remind you these were before satellite imagery so the true numbers could have been much higher.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1886_Atlantic_hurricane_season 1st storm June 13th.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1887_Atlantic_hurricane_season 1st storm May 15th.
1938 makes the list for numerous reasons.
Adding a graphic here for this one. It began early and ended very late.
1938 had a bad tornado outbreak in March and weather tracking far to the North.
And you can see the tracks into the GOM from the Caribbean.
1945 Hurricane Season was busy and had tracks into GOM and Atlantic Cruisers.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1945_Atlantic_hurricane_season 1st storm began June 20th.
1953 Hurricane Season was a very busy year
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1953_Atlantic_hurricane_season 1st storm formed on May 25th.
1966 Hurricane Season added in 1st storm formed on June 4th. An early busy year..
Moving into more modern times.
1996 bothers me more than 1995 though obviously they were both busy years.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_Atlantic_hurricane_season 1st storm June 17th.
1996 was a weak La Nina
1998 though 1999 is also a possible analog year.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Atlantic_hurricane_season 1st storm July 27th.
1998 was a weak La Nina moving towards a stronger one.
1999 strong La Nina. Difficult year for the Caribbean and NYC with Sandy in late October.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_Atlantic_hurricane_season 1st storm June 11th
2007 was a year with storm tracks through the Carib and into GOM. First storm May 9th.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Atlantic_hurricane_season Moderate La Nina
2012 Hurricane Season resonates on many levels. First Storm formed May 9th.
2012 was a moderate La Nina.
I could throw 1960 in again as I did last year as the pattern form 2019 hasn't changed that much.
So where do we go from here?
We watch, we pay attention and we prepare early.
Some supplies are low due to Covid-19 and stores are maintaining low occupancy rates that means that long lines will be longer this year and if you wait til the last minute there may be nothing left at the store. In the short term due to the ongoing Protests and many stores now deciding to board up their stores and shut them down, should Tropical Depression 3 become Cristobal and it heads towards a city where your favorite store has been shut down waiting out the protests.... well you get the idea. Don't wait, just don't... make a list, go shopping if you can and able to find what you can afford to make it through the 2020 Hurricane Season then buy it now and put it away in case you get to know one of the above names up close and way too personal.
Again I'll say it over and over. Mother Nature don't care about Corona nor does it care about protests or your anxiety level or your lack of funds because you have been out of work and are short on funds to evacuate. Mother Nature is going to throw storms at you this year and we can hope the strong ones stay out at sea but I can't promise you they will. In fact, I can promise you the pattern of landfalling storms willc ontinue and you so take that to the bank so do what you can do prepare as early as possible. See if a Food Bank is open near you and remember canned foods are your friends in Hurricane Season. Also, Dollar Stores have everything from water to tuna to candy to juice to OTC meds so it's good to grab a few things each time you go to the store as it adds up over time.
Stay safe and know that in 2020 it's been a year of Anything Goes so who knows what will be thrown at us. A follower on Twitter recommended the song Wrecking Ball and I can't really argue on that one.
I'll add a song or a video in later this evening, check back I'm busy with TD 3 now.
As for who to follow........
NHC is the bottom line always. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
I'll update later tonight with some suggestions for where to go for information and who to follow online.
Stay tuned,
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
Please read Part 1 written a few days ago.
Trying to keep this short but I want to give information to anyone who wants to understand.
posted by BobbiStorm @ 2:00 PM
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