Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, June 04, 2020

Noon Discussion on Cristobal Still Down By the Yucatan ... Thoughts on CSU Forecast Updated for a Well Above Average Hurricane Cseason




Let's begin with the official forecast.
The Cone from the NHChappy
Note data in bottom left of the above image.

So many questions in my mind on this forecast.
One on the timing, two the intensity.
Three on the track.


1. There is still signs of circulation.
2. I can see "eyes" where a new center could form.
3. It looks in ways like a large trough.
4. Where is the actual center if it emerges be? 

Current center is deep inland.



The official forecast is for Cristobal to regroup, pull himself together and take off towards New Orleans but most likely make landfall to the West of there and move fast up towards Arkansas. Currently landfall would be early hours of Monday Morning along the Louisiana coast. As always timing is everything and every hour that Cristobal stays over land this time frame and the forecast from the NHC may change. They already used words in their discussion showing their low confidence and did mention their intensity forecast is stronger than the current model data. They said "assuming the center will emerge over the Gulf of Mexico in about 36 hours, re-intensificaiton" and I think to myself did the NHC really use the word "assuming" because well you know the old adage about never using the word assume. 

I'm going to be very honest with you and say that I have very low confidence in this forecast from the NHC for numerous reasons. It's signature is weak and it is within a huge mass of weather that can do many things. Yes, it's definitely likely it regroups and moves North as that is what happens in this region that produces Gulf of Mexico storms that take aim at the Gulf Coast. 

It's worth remembering the "crazy models" several days ago there were not so crazy and referred to by the NHC in their advisory that it was possible another storm could form near the Yucatan. That raised a a lof of questions on "what do they mean" "what did they just write" as it was in the discussion and not the graphics. Again words matter ... especially when it comes to the NHC that likes to foreshadow changes in the forecast by various terminology. 

My opinion: Often the models show us the generalities of what will happen (especially in the long range) and we try to make sense of them but we see so far but models sniff out conditions and sometimes offer odd solutions. The discussion online whether this area could also produce Dolly was over the top but correct in concept. Messy systems are prone to multiple centers as I showed above. If a center to the East of the Yucatan (not currently in the forecast) should become the dominant center it would mean a track more to the right (East) initially but still could bend back to the right (WEST) near landfall. Would that be Dolly or just a new track for Cristobal? Most likely Cristobal and IF that were to happen they will slowly change the cone, forecast, intensity forecast and it will change in real time. That's my best guess. 

Either way.........the danger of a moist, tropical air being pumped up over Florida first and then as the system develops into something... it funnels it's storm surge upon the low lying beautiful beaches of the Gulf Coast and because of the actual topography of those beaches and the Gulf of Mexico near them makes storm surge a bigger problem there then in most places. 

For now:
Timing is everything.
Shear may appear in the GOM that will keep this storm at bay from strenghening too much.
Timing is everything.
Weather evolves in real time. 
Models hint with images and forecasters try to make sense of what they are saying.
The Water Vapor Loop tells the story. 


The image above snows how dry the air is to the N.
That's a dramatic image.
The moisture is shunted to the East.
Note heaviest convection at the tip of the Yucatan.
That's also where the old models showed oddness.
Where does the center reappear?
Or does a new center appear?

Stay tuned.

Below is the updated CSU report.
It came out at 11 AM.
I've been waiting to read it.
It's a very long read.
I'm a paperback novel compared to it ...
...it's worth reading.

Analog years:

19 Named Storms.
40 Hurricane Days forecast.
12.8 Major Hurricane Days Forecast.


Biggest question is on La Nina in my opinion.
That image of blue in the Pacific from his report.
To me says it is and I have been saying that.


Regarding the CSU updated forecast released today calling for a "well above average" hurricane season totally 19 named storms meaning we definitely get to SALLY if that forecast is correct and it could be as well as possibly the T storm the W storm in my opinion anything goes this season. But I'll leave you with the most important points from the updated Hurricane Season Forecast. 

The link is below. It is a long read. It uses many graphs and a huge amount of data. There is a glossary of terms used so if you are a beginner you can work your way along and by doing so you will learn how mathematical weather forecasting is and see for yourself how much work Phil and others put in trying to deliver to you the best product to help you best prepare for the Hurricane Season. Now it's up to you to actually prepare, please do so this could be a Season to remember.

Link to site.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach  Twitter link for Phil Klotzbach

Points I cut and pasted here to give you a look at to me what were the most salient parts and to wet your appetite for the whole report that really is a must read.

"Our Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index remains somewhat below its long-term average. We anticipate an above-normal probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean."

"Sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central tropical Pacific have anomalously cooled over the past two months, and it appears likely that there will be either cool neutral ENSO or weak La Niña conditions during the summer/fall. The tropical Atlantic is slightly warmer than normal, while the subtropical Atlantic is quite warm, and the far North Atlantic is anomalously cool."

"These seasonal forecasts were developed by the late Dr. William Gray, who was lead author on these predictions for over 20 years and continued as a co-author until his death in 2016. In addition to pioneering seasonal Atlantic hurricane prediction, he conducted groundbreaking research in a wide variety of other topics including hurricane genesis, hurricane structure and cumulus convection. His investments in both time and energy to these forecasts cannot be acknowledged enough. "

"A stronger Walker Circulation Index is associated with decreased vertical wind shear across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic "

"Rank correlations between April-May SST in the subtropical and mid-latitude eastern North Atlantic (Predictor 1) and (panel a) August-October sea surface temperature, (panel b) August-October sea level pressure, (panel c) August-October 850 hPa zonal wind and (panel d) August-October 200 hPa zonal wind. All four of these parameter deviations in the tropical Atlantic are known to be favorable for enhanced hurricane activity. "

Analog Years
"We searched for years that were generally characterized by cool neutral ENSO to weak La Niña conditions during August-October. We selected years that had slightly- to somewhat above-average SSTs in the tropical Atlantic. "

El Nino vs La Nina or Just Neutral
"Upper-ocean heat content anomalies in the eastern and central tropical Pacific were at above-normal levels from October 2019 through March 2020 but have recently decreased rapidly (Figure 14). This is another indication that the tropical Pacific may be headed towards La Niña conditions."

"Anomalously cool water has started to emerge in the central and eastern tropical Pacific (Figure 15). The coldest anomalies are currently located near the equator between 120°W and 140°W."

As always main point: 
" As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted."

Images from the report are also shown below. These are in random order to show you how a forecast is put together. And for me to reference down the road as well. It is my blog afterall and that's a form of tropical weather diary that I share with you.






My thoughts from this morning 9 AM
Really hard to connect the dots currently.
What we see and the forecast.
It's very probable the NHC forecast will verify.
Though modifications will happen.
Stay tuned.

Enjoy the video and others on Twitter
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.


I'm going to write a longer blog after the 11 AM updated Cone for Cristobal as honestly this morning nothing has changed except that the intensity is hovering near Tropical Depression status but still is shown as a Tropical Storm. What difference does 5 mph make it what is basically a Flood Storm currently as the wind is not the issue here the rain is and the rain will continue to be the issue up the road along the coastal towns of the Gulf of Mexico. Time has shown us storms such as this one tend to become huge rainmakers, filing up the Gulf of Mexico once they get back over the water they move enmasse slowly towards landfall. That landfall carries with it a huge storm surge threat across a large swath of land and that's why I keep using the word HUGE as it won't just impact one particular town based on the shape of the Gulf of Mexico.

The inhibiting factors will be the fact that it is June 4th and the water is not yet boiling and if we had this storm there in August this could be catastrophic but again it's June 4th and even that carries the threat of danger coming our way. There is some shear there and that is seen presently by the rain on the NE of Cristobal being shunted off towards Florida. Over time that will change.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LMSsWiUFIz8 Long video just warning you... complicated.


The atmosphere is a river of wind high above the Earth and it runs on certain levels much like one of those 3 storm Chess games. Ever seen someone play that? One level is enough for me as I'm a Backgammon girl personally. There is an upper level flow, a middle and a lower level flow down below and they all flow and sometimes different speeds and in different directions attacking a Tropical Storm trying to get it's act together after lingering too long in a beach resort in Mexico drinking too much Tequilla. You get the idea. I'll update later around Noon with model discussion and various cities in the track of Cristobal's projected landfall and I want to make it clear if you live in one of those place and your Walmart is closed for most of the evening or all day because of nearby riots and lootng that sadly occured when trouble makers broke from a crowd of peaceful protestors and well does it matter how it happened the bottom line is you may have difficulty getting the proper supplies to get you through this period so make a list carefully, choose wisely, spend carefully and start preparing. 

Currently the NHC is forecasting a Tropical Storm but a very wet one. It could become a hurricane but that could happen fast and by the time it does someone else got all the water, tuna and junk food that you thought you wouldn't need because it just looked like a ptiiful mess down there and you weren't going to worry about it. It's not about worrying...........................it's about preparing and monitoring it while you go about life, staying well and healthy and somewhat happy and not letting 2020 make you feel like a depressed mess! 



Oh if the Hurricane Season isn't enough to scare you yesterday a wild Derecheo moved across the North Part of our world into Pennsylvannia, NJ and clipped NY with winds way stronger than anything Cristobal ever had.......or might have but while watching the Yucatan people 4 people died from trees falling, damage was widespread and came in as fast as a freight train or a hurricane.



I'll be back later. 
Thanks for being here.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps... I'm sorry 2020 is not your Momma's Hurricane Season and the Pandemic is still here and the news gets upsetting but telling you ... this too shall pass. My Momma used to say that; I hated when she said that but she did and she was right.  Oh and if you are going out and wearing a mask because Covid-19 and 2020......don't bother with the lipstick. Just saying....

posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:27 AM

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