Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, June 03, 2020

UPDATE 1 PM - LANDFALL Cristobal In Mexico With 60 MPH Forecast to Shoot Up Into the GOM Like a Tropical Wet Ride at Disney Towards GOM Coast. Does the Forecast Verify? Models? Keep Watching.


Afternoon Update.
Not much has changed.
Over land as forecast by the NHC.
Cristobal still 60 MPH.
How is it maintaining intensity?





Showing you this old Cone.
This was expected.
AS it emerges over water it should bounce back fast.
And then take off for the North.
Cone from 11 AM



Discussion from NHC shows they expect it to strengthen.
Will it hit hurricane strength?
I think so but NHC plays it conservative.
And that's good. They update this every 6 hours.





 I did a screenshot yesterday.
Yes, it's an impressive image.
Explained well below.
That's the feature in the MIMIC I pointed out.




Now you know the rest of the story.
This is the link below.
It's a beautiful image always....
...rarely as scary as yesterday.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/images/xxirg8bbm.jpg


Stay safe, be well.
I'll update with the 5PM Cone.
It's really just a wait and see...
..what happens when Cristobal lifts N.
Often they "jump" a bit coming off of land.
So that might be interesting.

If you haven't read the blog today...
...keep on reading.
And thank you!

* * *




Landfall Officially from Crown Weather on Twitter.



www.crownweather.com

Good Radar Loop below tells the story this morning.



These are my thoughts on Cristobal's Mexican Vacation.



Cristobal is as close as it gets.
Soon it should be a technical landfall in Mexico.


And when I say landfall it truly looks like it's falling...
The official forecast track did show that movement.
Lingering, looping on the coast of Mexico.

A real disconnect going on here today.
Everyone wants to know "where it's going"
And they mean Houston? New Orleans? Gulfport?
It's making landfall now in Mexico.

Let's focus on today not five days from now.

Down the road after Cristobal is done with Mexico...


I made this video to explain what is going on.
Everyone keeps asking why the cone goes North.
When satellite loops imply FL is getting it.
FL is going to get weather, rain in the 5 Day.
On Monday ish... it's forecast to make landfall.
Up near Louisiana. Watch the video.




Models.


I prefer this map from Hurricane Tracker App below.
It's concise. Filled with information.
Clear and concise and colorful.
It has layers of information.


They give excellent information on Twitter.


https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp

Their App is a must to quickly check out the tropics.
And it's going to be a LONG Hurricane Season.
We have only just begun....

So as we have heard recently often..
Perspective and focus is important.
If you are in areas being flooded NOW...
..your prioritity is to save your life.
Hope and pray your home surivives.
Your jobs, your friends and your family.

If you live to the North in the USA.
You want to know where, where, where...
I can't say for sure but I can say what NHC says.


NHC this AM says this area in Louisiana is most under the gun.
Their Cone shows landfall here.
That can change but it's today's Cone. 

This is a close up look at the region under the gun.
Under the gun way down the road.
And after doing Mexico........
Cristobal can change his next travel destination.
But staying with the NHC package here.
This is Prime Time Hurricane Country.


Please use this feature from the NHC.
It takes you down to street level.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/115730.shtml?gm_track#contents

Link to discussion is next. It's very techincal and well written today. 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/030847.shtml?

My thoughts are that this is doing what it was forecat to do and that's why the NHC had it becoming a Tropical Storm and then weakening (after landfall or land interaction with Mexico) and then moving back up into the Gulf of Mexico and reattaining Tropical Storm Strength. The High is huge and pushing it down ...holding it down.......at some point it lets go and lets it breathe and when that happens we all hold our breath waiting to see if Cristobal shoots straight up to the North or takes a familiar bend to the left or to the right. And everyone from Texas to the Florida Panhandle looks skeptically at the ever popular Cone of Uncertainity. Until it begins to move North we aren't really sure but I'd still say everywhere from the Sabine River (Texas/La border) to Gulfport really needs to watch this one and that means the long, beautiful coastline of the State of Louisiana. Keep watching. I'll update later today in real time when there is something important to add.

Hurricane History Lesson of Today.
Hurricane Harvey.
A different storm totally.
But Harvey also did the dance over the Yucatan.
It looked crappy.
Being honest.
And models projected fame for Harvey...
...and misery and tragedy for Texas.
Weather people doubted the models.
Models verified.
It dumped incredibly huge amounts of rain.


There are numerous blogs I wrote on Harvey.
One is shown below.
Google Hurricaneharbor.blogspot Harvey 


A look back from my blog
Interestingly another storm was forming off the coat of FL...
Some models showed that recently so worth saying.
History can repeat.
But in a slightly different way each time.

Harvey was exhasuting to watch...
It formed, fell apart, reformed.
Looked like it never would get it together.
And then it did and everyone wished it didn't.

So I'm going to listen to Mike at 9:19 AM.
He's on Facebook Live and he's great.
No true confessions here ;)
But trust me I can listen to Mike forever.......

So stay tuned and check back often.

Thanks for following and talking on Twitter.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps Got this song stuck in my head this morning.
After reading Tweets........
...after looping.
Drove me crazy which song was it..
..then I remembered!
So sharing it with y'all.
Maybe I'll share another later...
See you later.........


I know it's not Country.
But I spent hours and hours working out to this.
Dancing to this and I may do that today.
Maybe while listening to Mike talk....

posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:03 AM

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