Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, May 18, 2020

Arthur Impacts NC Outer Banks. Flooding Later in the Week Could Be a Big Problem Especially Where There is Hilly Terrain. Prepare NOW For 2020 .. A Look Back at 1996 When Bertha and Fran Followed Arthur.



While June 1st is the official start to the Season.
Today was my official start.
Invest 90L that became Arthur
Impacted North Carolina's Outer Banks.
Distant showers caught in the bands..
..swirling around the system.
Rained on me in Raleigh.
The Season is here... deal with it.
June 1st will get all the Promos but ..
...next storm will be Bertha.


I attended a Conference and got this mug.
No I didn't buy the Tee Shirt.
A commemorative conference for Hurricane Research 
....commemorating the history and work.



Don't ask me why the cone looks like that...
...we have time to talk about that scenario.
Answer: the models.....
....nuff said!


Tropical Storm Arthur at 11 AM.


 

Moving NNE at 16 MPH
Picking up speed.
Moving away.

The take away for now on Arthur.
NHC does a Bottom Line these days ...


Wide view.
Things to notice.
Moisture in GOM...
...new wave Mid Atlantic


Healthy, strong swimmers this year leaving Africa.
If that continues... when shear in Carib goes away.
Watch out.

2 Videos I made for y'all.
Turn the sound up and watch the loop.

Part 1


Part 2



Putting the info at top today from Mike as it's easiest to use his layout and his sight to attain information fast on both the Tropics & Tropical Storm Arthur. I don't want to get too lost today in model discussion or what's down the road in the short term. I want to point out that this pattern set up will deliver more storms to the doors and shores where Arthur dropped rain on today....and history shows up that the pattern repeats and later in the season we have a Hurricane with lots of wind not just pretty wave shots at the beautiful beach by way of The Weather Channel.

Quick image from 1996 shows what I mean.


Keep reading and I'll explain why I chose 1996.

I posted two videos here above because I want to implore you to take this season seriously, because even a "mild' Category 1 Hurricane in let's say Florida or North Carolina or Alabama will not be mild but a pain in the ass. Even Cat 1 Hurricanes can create over wash on low lying roads, cutting off some area while delivering flooding situations or power outages that last way longer than one would think from a Category 1 Hurricane. After Katrina messed up our power grid in Miami taking down big trees, big limbs from trees and our electric system was gone with the wind for about a week. That means..........no Zoom..........no TWC.........not going online other than using your phone that needs to be charged somewhere and no tablet to keep your cute little bored toddler busy. A trip to my Dollar Store recently told me people have bought all the batteries out (why I don't know) and while they are replenishing the shelves as soon as possible they are waiting on the batteries to come in. The store was clean, people were friendly but keeping a distance and the line to get out was long (though it moved fast) and this was just a regular Sunday in NC not 2 days before a hurricane is about to make landfall.

Again........the Dollar Store has a wide variety of prepackaged, nonperishable food from canned food to cereal to more snacks than you would need for Bertha, Dolly and Gonzo combined. Every trip you take buy ONE pack of cookies or tuna and put it away now. Buy a 7 day candle for a dollar and hide it from the teenagers. Do it now because this year is not normal and we are thankfully managing to shop and get what we need even if there was no linguine there was spaghetti. But stress this delicate, fragile system even a little with one or two or three hurricanes that have threatened landfall and it could break the system. People aren't in a good mood wearing a mask because their wife made them... you don't want to piss anyone off standing in line with a Category 4 Hurricane knocking at the door and you can't afford to evacuate so.


 I wear a mask.
I have asthma and am prone to bronchitis.
In theory that means I'm high risk.... 
Cute masks, lots of eye make up.
Some people do not and aren't happy about it.
I don't tell people what they have to do...
...but I don't curse people out or bully people who don't.
Some stores require masks.
Should the curve go up and it gets worse.
During the heart of the hurricane season.
Tempers will flare.
Shop now......
Or buy online if you can and are staying home.
I don't care what you are or aren't doing.
I care that you prepare!

Some visuals.........



Number 1.
Arthur was your prime time June System.
May is June this year.
June will be like July.
July will be like OMG.
I think you got the idea.


This wave came off of Africa.
It didn't fizzle in the cool waters.
It's moving towards the Caribbean.
Part is washing up on South America.
Early in the season the waves are low.
But this wave wants to go higher.
As this pattern continues we need to watch.

Going wide.


There is currently shear in the Caribbean.
Those wispy horizontal clouds you see above.
The wave, look at it.
And the one behind it.
And the one coming off of Africa.
Wave Train City.
If parts of a wave gets up into this area...
....down the road.
It's an area it could develop.
Currently there's Arthur off the OBX
And another batch of rain for Florida


The 3 Day Loop.

allfcsts_loop_ndfd.gif (799×559)


2. Flooding will be a problem in some areas.
As Arthur moves away and the front moves in.
As steering currents collapse.
And we have days of rain.
Flooding will occur.
At some point another front moves in.
Sweeps the rain away.
Look at that parade of fronts.

The area below is forecast to get much rain.
Flooding may be a problem.
Especially where there is hilly terrain.



And I remind you..
Fronts can attract a hurricane...
...or it can sweep it out to sea.

A front approaching the East Coast sweeps it away.
A front approaching with a system in the GOM
Brings the storm onto land.
Landfall.

It's that simple.

Prepare, please.
Make lists.
I'm making lists today.
Cleaning up clutter from the weekend.
Thinking what I need that I don't have.
Because when I go to get it.
Someone else may have gotten it.
And the supply chain isn't working 100%
But pretty good thankfully.
Toss a Major Hurricane into that equation.
All hell with break loose.

Have a fantastic day.
I'll take the rain in Raleigh.
Actually raining again now....
Cooler weather.
Putting some music on...
...and doing my thing.

Do yours!
 I bought 2 cans of tune and stored them away.
If I don't use them in a hurricane...
... I'll make them for lunch.
Or use them in a snow storm.
2 Dollars isn't gonna break me.
So start preparing for the Hurricane Season.

Sweet Tropical Dreams.

BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps........in 1996 Bertha followed Arthur's track to NC
Then so did Fran.
Patterns repeat.
2019 was a pattern.
Every storm aimed for Florida...
...then curved away.
But this is 2020... ya know.
The year of "what next"
Bertha will be next on the list.
A look back from 1996.
An analog year in ways to 2020.
















posted by BobbiStorm @ 9:48 AM

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