Hurricane Harbor: Tropical Trouble Could Be Forming in the Gulf of Mexico. It Will Deliver Tropical Rain to Florida But Will It Be Organized? Stay Tuned. Something to Watch

Weather is locational.

In Raleigh I'm rooting for this cold front.

My daily high temperatures stay cooler.

For my Florida family I'm watching the remnants.

The models have been interesting.

But they flip flop a lot.

So watching to see the next model run or two.

What you need to know today is this:

Something could form but what?

Heavy rain and strong gusty winds for sure.

Everything beyond that is currently speculation.

But to be speculating already says much.

Yes, there's a chance.

Will it happen?

Time will tell.

First name on the list is Arthur!

https://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/allfcsts_loop_ndfd.gif t for the loop above.

This is a great link to use as it has a short term time frame that you can take to the bank, because if it's in the 3 Day Forecast you can pretty much rely on it happening. Often they tweak it a bit if the next model run is faster or slower but it's reliable and then what you do is extrapolate the end result and compare that to longer range models. As you probably know, the models have been sniffing tropical trouble in the Gulf of Mexico from a late season front that collapses down past the peninsular of Florida. As always we watch the tail end of decaying, cold fronts that go deep into the tropics early in the Hurricane Season as that is prime territory for the first storm of the season in the same way that the last storm of the season often rides an early cold front out of the tropics.

Again the last image this morning.

Compare and contrast that on their next update.

Then you temper that with the hype you see in headlines and the weather people you have learned to trust that give the most reliable information. Nothing like a history of wise advice that allows you to actually trust someone when it comes to forecasting and weather history. Speaking of good people... this link is on Mike's Spaghetti Models if it's easier for you to click on a visual vs keeping track of great links; Mike does it for you on www.spaghettimodels.com so familiarize yourself with his many links.

Speaking of Mike he was live today. Darn, I missed that. I figured he'd start going Live soon but he's always two steps ahead of many of us. The BEST PART of Facebook Live is you can watch it later when you have the time; my younger kids always do that during Hurricane Season it's like watching a show on Netflix I suppose for them. You can go to his site on Facebook and watch it as well at https://www.facebook.com/mikesweatherpage

I've always said on this blog that until fronts begin moving across the country we don't really see those wild September Hurricanes or October Monsters. Something about the mix of cold and hot, lows dipping down and lows moving up from the tropics and that's the real game changer often in what seems to be a quiet July or August. When we have an early season storm with a name it's usually because nasty weather congregated too long over warm water after a cold front left a piece of energy behind to ignite the tropical trouble into something more than just rain.

Another person I trust is Rob from www.crownweather.com

It's a pay for view site but well worth the money.

And he Tweets on Twitter often and that's free.

Check him out and see....

... if you trust him as much as me.

@crownweather on Twitter.

And Dabuh wins the day for practical advice.

So true, Mother's Day is coming this Sunday.

As it is forecast to be a wet, messy Sunday in FL.

Make a Plan B if the rain ...rains on your parade.

Wondering how many will parade past Mama's house..

...having a convertible these days is a benefit!
Note a convertible in Raleigh will work better...
...than one in Florida this Sunday.

I'd slow down and drop a package off...

..or if it's safe enough stay and cook for her!

Sure that Momma will enjoy that......

......or Zoom.

Or Anything from Amazon ;)

Or a home cooked meal!

As for my thoughts?
I'm watching the models.
I watch the EURO and GFS and ICON
They all show possibilities.
And that in itself is huge.

If you wish to watch the models.
And I'm sure most of you are....
For those wondering on how.
Upper Left Corner at Spaghetti Models

I'll leave you with a great site to use.
Many of us do but some get stuck on one page.
There are layers on this site to use.
www.windy.com
Easiest name ever.....

Note what the Euro shows.